Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces the most substantial threat to his regime in years, after rebels captured Aleppo—one of the country’s largest cities—last week, along with dozens of other towns and villages, in a surprise assault.
The move on Aleppo followed a Nov. 27 offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an opposition militant group and former al Qaeda affiliate that controls much of Syria’s Idlib province, which borders Aleppo province. Aided by locally manufactured kamikaze drones, HTS appears to have caught Assad’s forces off guard, prompting them to retreat from vast areas that are now under the group’s control. Both sides have already suffered significant losses, with at least 446 combatants and civilians killed since Nov. 27, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces the most substantial threat to his regime in years, after rebels captured Aleppo—one of the country’s largest cities—last week, along with dozens of other towns and villages, in a surprise assault.
The move on Aleppo followed a Nov. 27 offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an opposition militant group and former al Qaeda affiliate that controls much of Syria’s Idlib province, which borders Aleppo province. Aided by locally manufactured kamikaze drones, HTS appears to have caught Assad’s forces off guard, prompting them to retreat from vast areas that are now under the group’s control. Both sides have already suffered significant losses, with at least 446 combatants and civilians killed since Nov. 27, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
More than 14,000 people have been displaced due to the recent violence, according to local aid group Violet. But, for the first time in eight years, many regime dissidents are returning to towns and villages that are now under HTS control.
The Syrian civil war began in 2011 after Assad’s regime violently repressed pro-democracy protesters, triggering a conflict that has so far claimed more than half a million lives and displaced over 7 million people. Aleppo was a major opposition stronghold until 2016, when a Russian air bombing campaign retook the city for the Assad regime.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has instructed his fighters to protect all civilians, including Christians, as well as Syrian regime soldiers who surrender, according to Idlib-based journalist Fared al-Mahlool. Following its split with al Qaeda around 8 years ago, HTS has sought to rebrand itself as a more moderate force than its erstwhile benefactor. Now, many residents of newly captured areas are uncertain what life under HTS control might entail.
Recent escalations in northwest Syria come as Assad’s main international supporters are preoccupied with their own conflicts. Russia is prioritizing its war in Ukraine, and both Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, in Lebanon, have been significantly weakened in fighting with Israel. Still, Russian and Syrian airstrikes targeted Idlib and Aleppo provinces over the weekend, while Iranian-backed militias from Iraq—including Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun—recently crossed into Syria, according to Al Arabiya, a Saudi Arabian news channel.
“Since Sunday, the bombings are constant,” Mahlool said. “Several schools and clinics in Idlib province have already been targeted.”
On Dec. 1, an airstrike hit Aleppo University Hospital, killing at least 12 people and injuring dozens more. The strike also damaged one of Violet’s ambulances, said Yemn Sayed Issa, the media and communication coordinator with the aid group. That same day, airstrikes targeted Idlib University Hospital, Ibn Sina Hospital, Idlib’s National Hospital, and the Idlib Health Directorate. And, according to Issa, a Soviet-era warplane struck a camp for displaced people near Ma’arrat Misrin, a town just north of central Idlib, killing at least seven civilians, including five children and two women. Violet’s medical team is responding to the attacks.
“It’s extremely dangerous for everyone. Our medics and ambulances head out daily, but constantly fear being targeted,” Issa said, adding that Aleppo—home to around 2 million people—is now critically short on essentials like bread, water, fuel, and medical supplies, which had previously been shipped from other regime-held areas.
“Everything is coming from Idlib now, but it’s difficult. The humanitarian situation is tragic. People are having to find shelter wherever they can,” Issa said. “In the town of [Darkush], for example, a public swimming pool has been turned into a temporary shelter for people who have fled their villages. Most displaced families have been forced to seek shelter in open fields and farmland, without any proper shelter or basic facilities.”
HTS’s advance means Aleppo is under opposition control for the first time in eight years. The front line had remained frozen since Russia and Turkey brokered a cease-fire deal in 2020. The two countries back opposing sides in Syria.
Russia, along with Iran and Hezbollah, are Assad’s key allies, while Turkey supports the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of opposition groups—excluding HTS—that fights the Assad regime and Kurdish forces such as the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkey considers the latter two groups to be terrorist organizations.
Since the recent rebel offensive, Assad’s regime has effectively abandoned areas within Aleppo province and left them under Kurdish control. The SNA continues to push the Kurdish groups further east. On Dec. 1, the SNA captured the strategic town of Tel Rifaat, which is located between Aleppo and the Turkish border. For the past eight years, the area had been under YPG and PKK control—a significant national security concern for Turkey.
The relationship between HTS and the SNA has long been tense; HTS has sought control over SNA-held areas and the SNA distrusts HTS for numerous reasons, including ideological differences. But both groups share a common goal.
“The priority is to fight the regime,” said Orwa Ajjoub, a doctoral candidate at Malmo University in Sweden who researches Islamist groups in Syria. “I’ve spoken with people who are sworn enemies of HTS to this day, but now they’re putting their differences aside to fight the regime. HTS is leading these efforts. When the dust settles, we’ll see how these diverse groups manage to resolve their disagreements.”
Turkey has its own troops in Syria, primarily in Idlib, Afrin, and other areas east of the Euphrates River, mainly as part of its operations against the PKK and YPG. Around 900 U.S. troops are also in the country; mostly concentrated in northeastern Syria, they support counter-terrorism operations against the Islamic State.
Analysts have speculated over whether Turkey—which is keen to reduce the power of the PKK and YPG—gave HTS the green light for the operation. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, however, said that it would be “wrong” to try to chalk the current situation in Syria up to external intervention.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to mend relations with Assad in July, following a deterioration of ties throughout the war. Yet Assad insisted that Turkish forces must fully withdraw from Syria for him to negotiate with Erdogan—a request Turkey is unwilling to meet due to its own national security concerns.
Speaking with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Dec. 1, Fidan stressed that Turkey opposes instability in the region and reiterated the importance of reducing tensions in Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Turkey on Dec. 2 to discuss the situation in Syria. “Recent developments show once again that Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition,” Fidan said at a joint news conference with Araghchi. “Turkey is ready to make all the necessary contribution toward this.”
Whether Turkey knew about it or not, “this operation is definitely a win for Turkey,” Ajjoub said. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has spoken about potentially withdrawing the remaining U.S. troops in Syria, which could create a power vacuum in the region. “Having more leverage in Syria before Donald Trump takes office could be significant for Turkey,” Ajjoub said.
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