This article is part of the Polish Presidency of the EU special report.
BRUSSELS — After eight years of hard-right, Euroskeptic rule by the Law and Justice (PiS) party, Donald Tusk’s pro-European, center-right Civic Coalition was seen as a potential reset button for Poland.
But with Warsaw preparing to take the helm of the European Union’s intergovernmental branch just over a year into his tenure, on Jan. 1, Tusk’s approach has raised doubts about how much of a break he truly represents.
While defenders call the 67-year-old premier moderate and pragmatic, his critics argue that his actions on media reforms and migration, among other issues, borrow heavily from the populist playbook he once opposed.
This sentiment is visible in his narrative on Ukrainian agriculture, where he has accused Kyiv’s farm exports of enriching oligarchs and multinationals rather than benefiting ordinary Ukrainians and the country’s broader effort to resist Russia’s war of aggression.
And, as Poland prepares to hold a presidential election in the spring, these domestic dynamics could shape — or strain — negotiations to update the EU’s decade-old trade agreement with Ukraine and throw a spanner in Kyiv’s longer-term ambition to join the EU.
“Tusk has a good sense of what people in Poland prioritize or are afraid of — fear of war, border security, economic stability,” said Aleksander Smolar, a political scientist and board member of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
“He’s using populist rhetoric, but is not a populist per se. He’s staving off the real danger, which is the return of the Euroskeptic and right-wing Law and Justice to power.”
Farm rift
Poland has steadfastly supported Ukraine’s war of resistance against Russia — sending military aid, taking in millions of refugees and championing Kyiv’s cause within the EU.
Yet, when it comes to trade, Poland has adopted a starkly different posture, particularly regarding Ukrainian agricultural exports — a lifeline for the country’s war-torn economy.
Tusk “is not going to be dovish on migration or agricultural issues, especially with presidential elections coming up. These are key to the PiS electorate,” said one EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the delicate political climate.
These tensions are casting a shadow over the upcoming talks to replace temporary trade measures with a long-term deal — where quick and smooth progress is unlikely during Poland’s six-month presidency of the Council of the EU.
That’s despite pleas for urgency from Kyiv: Ukraine’s economic survival, and its ability to fight back against Russia, depend “now much more than ever” on keeping free trade with the EU, Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval told POLITICO on a visit to Brussels last month.
Tusk’s failure to lift illegal restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural imports, imposed by his predecessors, is already a sticking point.
Warsaw, alongside Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia, has defied EU orders to reopen its markets, risking legal action from Brussels. The move, which has played well with rural voters at home, underscores Poland’s reluctance to align fully with EU directives, even under Tusk’s ostensibly pro-European leadership.
Poland’s presidential election in May adds another layer of complexity. Tusk will need to maintain a firm stance on agricultural issues to appeal to rural voters and counter opposition claims that he is too soft on Ukraine.
While he is unlikely to block progress, his government’s approach will reflect a delicate balancing act between domestic priorities and EU solidarity.
The upcoming trade talks will focus on updating tariff-free quotas within the existing EU-Ukraine free-trade agreement, which entered into force in 2016. This update is intended to replace the emergency measures the EU introduced in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which threw an economic lifeline by lifting all tariffs on Ukrainian imports.
But the measures have sparked a backlash from the EU’s biggest countries, such as Poland and France, and from farmers in countries bordering Ukraine, who fear the influx of cheap Ukrainian goods undermines local producers.
In Poland, farmers have repeatedly blocked border crossings with Ukraine, slowing commercial traffic to a trickle and risking disruptions in the flow of humanitarian and military supplies.
The blockades have benefited from broad public support in Poland, with opinion polls showing a noticeable shift in how Poles view Ukraine as the war drags on. Today, most Poles believe their government should prioritize national interests, including protecting the domestic agricultural sector, instead of supporting Ukraine at all cost, according to recent surveys.
Ukraine is expected to push for the upcoming update to liberalize trade as much as possible, maintaining broad market access for its agricultural exports.
Poland, however, is likely to favor a more restrictive approach, reflecting domestic concerns about the impact of Ukrainian competition on its own farmers.
The diplomat dismissed any illusions of a radically transformed Poland under Tusk: “I’ve never really bought those ‘Saint Donald’ stories — they are politicians, and they need to be reelected.”
Spoiler or savior?
The Polish presidency offers Tusk an opportunity to showcase leadership on the European stage. Yet it also puts Tusk’s dual messaging under the microscope.
His ability to bridge the gap between his domestic audience and European allies will be critical in determining whether Poland emerges as a facilitator or spoiler in the EU-Ukraine trade negotiations.
“This is to Poland’s great detriment,” ECFR’s Smolar said, “because of short-term domestic interests and ill-considered, emotional reactions.”
Historical grievances further complicate the trade talks.
The Volhynia Massacre, a World War II-era atrocity that remains a sore point in Polish-Ukrainian relations, has resurfaced in the public discourse. While Poland and Ukraine have worked to deepen ties since the Russian invasion, festering historical wounds and nationalist posturing on both sides are undermining trust.
“On the Polish side, there is no positive answer to the question of how to build these relations,” said Smolar. “On the Ukrainian side, too, it is difficult to demand any political creativity today — they are at war, after all.”
Under Tusk’s reign, Poland’s presidency is widely seen as a chance to inject momentum into Ukraine’s longer-term EU trajectory.
But the strained dynamic raises concerns about Poland’s role in spearheading EU efforts to assist Ukraine in its ambitions. While leaders publicly champion Kyiv’s cause, behind closed doors, concerns are mounting over the practicalities of integrating a war-torn nation — and its vast agrarian sector — into the bloc.
And when it comes to trade in agriculture, domestic pressures will likely take precedence for the Polish prime minister, threatening to stall progress and potentially leaving the EU scrambling to salvage the deal with Kyiv.
“It’s not strange — other leaders have done it,” the EU diplomat said.
Camille Gijs contributed reporting.
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