Donald Trump may be more likely to get a peace deal from Russia if he places Ukraine in a position of strength, according to analysts.
The President-elect has said his priority is to end the war in Ukraine and stop what he believes is a drain on US military resources.
On Wednesday, he selected retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, where he’ll likely lead the drive to broker peace talks.
It’s a move that may concern the US’ European allies, with Kellogg previously having suggested handing over Ukrainian territory to Russia.
Military and political leaders in Europe are warning that a deal that hands too much to Russia will likely just be a prelude to further conflict.
Analysts told Business Insider that a meaningful peace deal can only be brokered by backing Ukraine and ensuring it can negotiate from a position of strength.
John Lough, associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said abandoning Ukraine could make Trump appear weak and embolden the US’s main global competitors.
“If he abandons Ukraine and says, ‘I’m not going to fund this anymore, the US doesn’t need this,’ and as a consequence, the Russians make a strategic advance in Europe, and take a further step to dismantle the US-led security order in Europe, that would undoubtedly look weak,” said Lough.
Instead, say experts, Ukraine must be placed in a position to deter Russia.
In recent months, Russia has exploited Ukraine’s lack of manpower and artillery, making significant advances in east Ukraine.
At the same time, it’s intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure, with one million civilians without power after strikes this week.
Kellogg’s position is more complex than that of President Joe Biden, who backed arming Ukraine to push Russia back and left it up to Kyiv to decide when to negotiate.
Instead, Kellogg argues that Ukraine’s aid should be cut if it refuses to negotiate with the Kremlin, but US aid to Ukraine should be boosted if Russia won’t take part in talks.
Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute in Washington, DC, in an interview with CNN Wednesday warned that Putin has little incentive to seek peace with Ukraine if he believes support for Kyiv is weakening.
“If President Trump is credible in basically threatening to provide Ukraine with what it needs to retake territory and to hold on to the Russian territory, then that puts pressure on Putin because this war is not popular in Russia,” said Farkas.
“So every day he has to wait, and if he thinks that Ukraine now has time on its side, meaning President Trump will back Ukraine, he will then be more motivated to seek a deal.”
Ultimately, achieving a lasting peace deal in Ukraine will depend on deterring Russia, not on walking away.
“Any deal is still going to involve US support in some form to keep the peace. Ukraine needs to maintain effective armed forces to deter further Russian aggression,” said Lough.
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