For weeks, the Republic of Ireland looked like a rare Western democracy bent on defying the global trend of tossing out its government. The two centrist parties that have governed Ireland in a coalition since 2020, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, appeared to be on cruise control to lock up enough votes to stay in power.
But now, just days before voters cast their ballots on Friday, Ireland’s election has suddenly gotten more interesting. An uncharacteristic misstep by the popular prime minister, Simon Harris, and a bounce back in the polls by the main opposition party, Sinn Fein, has churned the waters.
Mr. Harris, a 38-year-old career politician who has been an energetic leader of Fine Gael, is under intense pressure after a brusque exchange with a voter was caught on camera and went viral on social media. The episode, analysts said, could cost Mr. Harris his job as Taoiseach, or prime minister.
When the votes are counted, political analysts say, the most likely outcome is still a unity coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, perhaps augmented by the left-wing Greens or Labour Party, which would enable Ireland’s big parties to cobble together another majority in Ireland’s parliament.
But Fine Gael’s poll numbers were sinking even before Mr. Harris was stopped last Friday evening in a supermarket north of Cork by Charlotte Fallon, who protested that his government was not doing enough to support those, like her, who work with disabled people. Tight-lipped and tense, Mr. Harris denied Ms. Fallon’s claims, offered her a curt handshake, and turned away.
“Keep shaking hands and pretend you’re a good man,” a visibly distressed Ms. Fallon said. “You’re not a good man.”
Mr. Harris apologized profusely later, posting on his Instagram account: “I didn’t give her the time that I should have given her, and I feel really bad about that.” He phoned Ms. Fallon to say sorry directly, which did not seem to mollify her. “I hope nobody else has to have an interaction like that ever, because it’s not very nice going home crying,” she told The Irish Times.
It recalled a cringe-worthy campaign-trail encounter in 2010 between Gordon Brown, then the prime minister of Britain, and a Labour Party supporter, Gillian Duffy, who complained that immigrants were soaking up benefits meant for poor British people. After getting back into his car, Mr. Brown, still wearing a live microphone, was overheard bitterly criticizing that “bigoted woman.”
He, too, apologized contritely — and went on to lose the election to the Conservatives, bringing an end to 13 years of Labour government.
For Fine Gael, it was the latest in a string of missteps, which included a logo falling off a podium as Mr. Harris launched the campaign. The party’s support has dropped by six points in the latest Irish Times/B&A Ipsos poll, to 19 percent. It now finds itself trailing its coalition partner, Fianna Fáil, which was up two percentage points, at 21 percent, and Sinn Fein, up one point, at 20 percent. If those trends hold, Fianna Fáil’s leader, Micheal Martin, would become Taoiseach.
“It is the cumulative impact that matters, albeit the Fallon meeting went viral and is probably the main thing that will be remembered,” said Theresa Reidy, a political scientist at University College Cork. “It will put Fianna Fáil in the driver’s seat when it comes to coalition negotiations.”
A Governing Duopoly Looks Set to Keep Sinn Fein Out
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out governing in a coalition with Sinn Fein, which is still identified by its vestigial links to the Irish Republican Army, the paramilitary group that fought for the Irish republican cause during the decades of so-called Troubles in Northern Ireland. This has meant that since 2020, Irish politics has effectively been a duopoly, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil trading the top posts between their leaders.
“Sinn Fein does not have a clear pathway to an alternate government,” Professor Reidy said. “Voters have lots of candidates to choose from, but the options for government are very limited.”
Until Sinn Fein’s slight recovery last week, the story of this election had been its precipitous decline. In 2020, it seemed on the brink of entering government, having won the popular vote and its largest-ever share of seats in the parliament. That sense of momentum accelerated in 2023 when Sinn Fein also won the largest number of seats in Northern Ireland’s assembly.
Yet Sinn Fein has been stung by the anti-immigrant sentiment that has swept Ireland and other European countries, thanks partly to social media. In keeping with the party’s left-wing heritage, its leaders have largely shunned the nativist language of populist and right-wing parties. But independent and fringe candidates have picked up those tropes, peeling away some of Sinn Fein’s political base.
“They have not, to their credit, played the anti-immigrant card,” said Bobby McDonagh, a former Irish ambassador to Britain. “But a lot of their traditional supporters are quite hostile to migrants.”
Sinn Fein, he said, suffers from another problem related to Ireland’s prosperous economy. They have struggled to reconcile their radical roots — unifying Northern Ireland with the Irish Republic is still a core party tenet — with an economic agenda that is mainstream and cautious.
“They want to be the radical party of change,” Mr. McDonagh said, “but they also want to send a message that they will manage economic issues in a way that doesn’t upset the apple cart.”
Sinn Fein’s electoral success starting in 2020, analysts said, came after it drew attention to Ireland’s acute housing crisis. But the high cost and shortage of housing has been in the headlines for years now, and the other major parties have all developed policies for tackling it.
Handouts Sweeten the Deal For Voters — For Now
Anxiety about the cost of living now tops the list of voter concerns, but that plays out differently in Ireland than in countries like the United States or Britain, where restive voters turned out their governments this year.
Buoyed by American corporate investment, the Irish government has ample fiscal resources to offer people electricity credits, welfare payments, and assorted tax breaks — a stark contrast to Britain, where the fiscally strapped Labour government felt compelled to roll out an austere budget.
“The fact that people are comfortable in their lives suggests a degree of continuity in the government,” Mr. McDonagh said.
To the extent there is a shadow on the horizon, it is in the form of Donald J. Trump, the once-and-future American president. Mr. Trump’s pledge to cut taxes for corporations could wipe out a tax advantage that Ireland has had for years that has enabled it to become a mecca for American multinational firms.
“There’s so much money right now that people aren’t engaging with the threat,” Professor Reidy said. “But Trump is the single biggest threat to our economic model.”
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