‘Wicked’ Is Plenty Popular. But Is It a Potential Best Picture?

Rebecca Ford: I’m not sure this is a piece either of us would have anticipated writing a year ago. For many months, Wicked—the long-gestating musical adaptation—wasn’t a film we were seriously considering as a part of the awards race. That’s partially our fault, because musicals have such a spotty history at the Oscars, and partially not our fault, because representatives for the film made it very clear to us that their priority was ensuring a commercial success. That dream came true: Wicked, directed by Jon M. Chu and starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, earned $164 million worldwide in its opening weekend. That’s the biggest box office launch of all time for a Broadway adaptation.

very well reviewed, or that this will matter for a nomination—it’s so broadly well-liked that at this stage, I’d be shocked if it doesn’t make the final 10 at the Oscars. But for an Academy that’s trended more international and art house over the years, being seen as an accessible commercial play without that highbrow sheen makes Wicked a tougher sell.

There are a few benchmarks the Wicked team can try to hit to overcome that perception. One is really pushing for Chu in the directing race. Those aforementioned Wicked-esque contenders all won best director in addition to best picture, and while I’d say that’s a very tall order for this movie, highlighting Chu’s artistry and skill in mounting a grand movie musical will help Wicked get taken seriously for top awards. If Chu earns a nomination for best director, which is hardly a sure thing—that voting branch is as snobby as it gets—that would signal that the movie is moving in the right direction. But if he misses that short list, as most expect right now, it’s a reminder of the steep odds any mass-appealing movie faces in the modern Oscar race.

The cast also needs to just keep getting out there, right? Does an Ariana Grande Oscar win lift all boats?

Ford: As we pointed out on Little Gold Men last week, most of the blockbusters that have made the best-picture list in recent years—like Dune, Top Gun: Maverick, and Avatar: The Way of Water—have not gotten corresponding acting nominations. The notable exceptions were both Barbie and Oppenheimer earlier this year (though Margot Robbie was snubbed in lead actress). The acting nominations really helped both of those films in the best-picture race; having, for example, America Ferrera land a surprise nomination spoke to Barbie’s support in the acting branch, which is the biggest voting bloc at the Oscars.

As we’ve seen with the worldwide release campaign for Wicked, the cast seems pretty open to working hard to promote the film. With its release finally behind them, they can focus on awards campaigning, which they haven’t had time for yet. Erivo and Grande weren’t, for example, at this month’s Governors Awards—a room full of campaigning actors and filmmakers—because it conflicted with Wicked’s London premiere. I expect we’ll see both Grande and Erivo out there in the coming weeks, telling a compelling story about the making of this film and how it has affected their own lives and careers. When the two of them are together with the rest of their cast, there’s a buzzy energy that reminds me of what we saw with Everything Everywhere All at Once—and let’s not forget that Michelle Yeoh is also in Wicked!

Canfield: It’s hard not to get swept up in the energy of a room filled with the likes of Erivo, Grande, Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, Bowen Yang, and many more. Voters have already fallen in love with most of these folks individually. Together, their future might just be unlimited.

Listen to Vanity Fair’s Little Gold Men podcast now.