As the Middle East prepares for the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House, Saudi Arabia is looking to strike a deal with Washington reflective of its ascending geopolitical status and the vast changes that have swept through the volatile region over the past four years.
Trump’s election victory this month came as Washington and Riyadh remained locked in negotiations toward a grand deal that would include U.S. security assurances for Saudi Arabia and closer cooperation in various fields, such as nuclear development. At the same time, President Joe Biden‘s administration has also sought to establish diplomatic ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the vein of a series of agreements known as the Abraham Accords that Trump oversaw with four Arab nations in 2020.
If Trump seeks to expand his own legacy of normalizing Arab ties with Israel to secure the deal with Riyadh that has eluded the current administration, Saudi observers say the incoming U.S. leader will need to leverage his close ties with Israel in order to advance the cause of Palestinian statehood.
“There is one crucial thing the Trump administration must understand well: it is wishful thinking on their part to assume that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords for free,” Salman al-Ansari, a prominent Saudi political analyst, told Newsweek. “A Palestinian state is a must and an absolute prerequisite for normalization with Israel.”
Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s transition team and the Saudi Embassy to the U.S. via email for comment.
The Palestinian Question
A two-state solution has long served as the basis for U.S. diplomacy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, now in the throes of its deadliest episode since the feud first erupted in 1948. The current war, sparked by an unprecedented Hamas-led attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, has both brought the issue back into the international spotlight and at the same time threatened to upend traditional approaches.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has increasingly questioned the idea of a Palestinian state as his forces seek to inflict a lasting defeat against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and his far-right allies openly discuss the potential annexation of the West Bank. Settlers on land internationally recognized as Palestinian territory have also welcomed Trump’s victory as well as his hard-liner nominations such as former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee for U.S. ambassador to Israel.
For Saudi Arabia, the answer to the conflict remains rooted in the Arab Peace Initiative, a 10-point proposal first introduced by the Kingdom and endorsed by the Arab League in 2002. The plan calls on Israel to concede all territories occupied after the 1967 Six-Day War, including East Jerusalem, parts of the West Bank, the Golan Heights and any other seized lands in exchange for a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace, security guarantees and mutual recognition.
With less than two months before Trump is set to retake U.S. leadership, Ansari said it’s still “too early to tell” precisely how Trump planned to handle this issue. But he saw “a mixture of optimism and pessimism” from the perspective of Saudi Arabia.
“The optimism comes from the fact that Mr. Trump has a positive precedent with us and worked hard to deepen the Saudi-U.S. economic partnership,” Ansari said. “On the other hand, the pessimism may come from his new appointees, especially the U.S. ambassador to Israel, who seems to be on the far right with regard to supporting Israel, disregarding basic humanitarian and international laws.”
“I think Mr. Trump gave Israel more than they had ever imagined during his first administration,” he added, “and it would be wise for him to reap the fruits by being in a position to wait for them to offer him something—a serious peace plan with the Palestinians.”
Throughout his first administration, Trump developed close ties with Saudi Arabia and its royal family, particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who rose to become heir apparent and de facto ruler during this time. Trump hailed the prospect of greater arms sales to the Kingdom and vetoed congressional attempts to block U.S. weapons deals over human rights concerns related to the war in Yemen.
Biden, on the other hand, began his presidency in a far colder position in relation to Saudi Arabia, having referred to the nation as a “pariah” on the campaign trail and, in one of his first major foreign policy decisions upon coming to office in 2021, halting offensive arms transfers to Riyadh. Biden also ran into several high-profile disputes with Saudi Arabia, which denied U.S. appeals to ramp up oil production among soaring energy costs associated with Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022.
Still, Ansari said that Saudi Arabia had found success in working with Democratic and Republican leadership in the U.S., noting specifically the efforts of current U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney, who he said had “worked actively and smartly to enrich this partnership through mutual respect and by addressing bilateral challenges and aspirations.”
Trump also incurred some wrath from the Kingdom during his previous time in office, particularly in February 2020 when he jointly announced with Netanyahu a new plan, widely referred to as a “deal of the century,” to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The proposal was rejected by Saudi Arabia as well as Hamas and the Palestinian National Authority.
Trump’s fervently pro-Israel policies were met with widespread Arab indignation on other occasions as well, including over his controversial decisions to move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to the disputed holy city of Jerusalem and his recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights from Syria.
While Palestinians also rebuffed the 2020 Abraham Accords that ultimately won over the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, the initiative served as a milestone in Israeli-Arab relations. They also undermined the conditions set forth by the Arab Peace Initiative and thus far Saudi Arabia has been unwilling to break with its 2002 proposal.
The current geopolitical realities and the raging conflict that has erupted in the Middle East could make a follow-up deal even more complicated.
“For President Donald Trump, his big win in the 2024 presidential election strengthens his position domestically, but he faces a different reality in foreign policy,” Azam al-Shdadi, a Saudi foreign affairs expert and member of the Kingston University Political Science Association, told Newsweek. “Today, the situation in the Middle East has changed radically compared to his first term, especially with the escalation of tensions fueled by Israel in the region.”
Shifting Tides in the Middle East
The war that began between Hamas and Israel has since expanded to include a constellation of Iran-led factions known as the Axis of Resistance, as well as Tehran itself. Trump previously sought to align Arab partners against Iran, but Riyadh has since chosen to stabilize its tense relationship with Tehran by reestablishing diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China in March 2023.
This pact between the two rival regional powers holds today in spite of the chaos that has broken out across the region. The Arabian Peninsula has also largely been spared from the turmoil, with the notable exception of Saudi Arabia’s southern neighbor Yemen, where the powerful Ansar Allah, or Houthi movement, continues to launch missiles and drones against Israel as well as hundreds of vessels accused of supporting it in nearby waters.
The resilience of the China-sponsored Iran-Saudi deal has proven a serious challenge for the U.S. as it struggles to reassert itself as a top Middle East influencer and more broadly contends with the People’s Republic for global superpower status.
“The success of the Saudi-Iranian agreement represents a test for China’s role as a peace mediator,” Shdadi said. “So far, the agreement has proven successful, as confirmed by the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Tripartite Joint Committee in its last meeting on November 19, 2024.”
Shdadi cited late veteran U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger, who in a March 2023 interview with The Washington Post called the new Iran-Saudi deal “a substantial change in the strategic situation in the Middle East.” Kissinger, who passed away later that year, likened Saudi Arabia’s balancing act in the region to the efforts of the U.S. to exploit tensions between China and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
With China now the leading competitor, Beijing has already overtaken Washington in terms of diplomacy and several other key metrics. Saudi Arabia, long strictly aligned with the U.S., now commands the position of being able to exert its own leverage.
The Kingdom holds unique influence in the Arab and Islamic worlds due to its custodianship of Islam’s two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. It also assumes a leading status in the Arab League, Gulf Cooperation Council and Organization of Islamic Cooperation, represents one of fastest growing economies of the G20 and is on the precipice of joining BRICS, an economic coalition that counts great powers China and Russia as leaders.
“Diversifying relations without compromising the interests of other parties has made the Kingdom a reliable partner capable of overcoming international challenges,” Shdadi said. “The real test now is the ability of the new U.S. administration to adopt policies that keep pace with this changing reality and ensure the benefit of the strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia in a way that serves regional and global stability.”
Iran, for its part, has since accepted BRICS membership and become a full-fledged member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, another China and Russia-initiated bloc of which Saudi Arabia became a dialogue partner in 2023.
Still, the underlying feud between the revolutionary Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran and nationalist Sunni Muslim Kingdom of Saudi Arabia runs deep as they continue to engage in their own regional competition for influence. Riyadh also remains concerned over Iran’s accelerating nuclear program despite Tehran’s constant assurances that it did not seek to obtain weapons of mass destruction.
The limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment, centrifuge production and other related areas set by the multilateral nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have increasingly collapsed since Trump abandoned the accord in 2018. While initially skeptical of agreement, the recent recalibration of the dynamic between Riyadh and Tehran has led the Kingdom to also see the benefits of such an agreement.
But Shdadi felt Trump may also shift on the Iran nuclear deal given the fast-changing developments of the region.
“Trump’s previous position rejecting the agreement may change in light of the new reality, as the Middle East is witnessing a calming down between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” he said. “The Iranian regime is showing unprecedented flexibility due to economic pressures and Israeli attacks, which makes dialogue on a new formula for the nuclear agreement possible. Saudi Arabia will play a major role in any future negotiations due to its developing relationship with Iran.”
Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical analyst who serves as president of the Saudi Elite consultancy group, said that the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia should not be underestimated and warned that any excessively hawkish positions may only serve to harm, not heal, the fractured fault lines of the Middle East.
“The recent diplomatic thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran represents a significant shift in our foreign policy,” Alhamed told Newsweek. “Maintaining open channels of communication with Tehran has helped us manage regional tensions and avoid becoming embroiled in conflicts that do not serve our interests. However, we must remain vigilant.”
He added: “An aggressive stance between Israel and Iran could destabilize the region and threaten our security. The Kingdom must prioritize its interests by advocating for a balanced approach that discourages escalation and promotes dialogue rather than confrontation.”
The Saudi Swing State
Trump may have won a sweeping victory over all seven U.S. battleground states in his decisive win over Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this month, but the oil-rich Kingdom that is diversifying its economic and diplomatic portfolio may prove an even tougher challenge for the incoming administration.
“It’s important to recognize that Saudi Arabia has various alternatives and will pursue its interests regardless of U.S. agendas,” Alhamed said. “The Kingdom is aware that the U.S. cannot impose radical policies on other countries or societies if they do not align with their core interests.”
Yet the ideologies that drive Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed in their respective visions to reshape their countries align in many ways. The president-elect’s “America First” platform resounds heavily with the transformative, increasingly nationalist path on which Riyadh’s monarch-in-waiting has embarked.
“As we consider the potential return of President Trump, the region is generally welcoming of his administration,” Alhamed said. “His focus on internal development and reduced involvement in foreign conflicts may create opportunities for Saudi Arabia to strengthen its ties with the U.S. while pursuing its national interests without external pressures. Overall, Saudi Arabia is committed to fostering a relationship that prioritizes stability, security, and mutual respect.”
Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed often liken themselves as peacemakers in the Middle East. But as Riyadh’s young royal progresses toward his ambitious “Vision 2030” plan, he’s also looking to cement his place in history as the Arab leader who finally secured a Palestinian state—or else risk a major blow to his legitimacy.
“It’s important to note that the security agreements discussed do not necessarily include normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” Alhamed said. “Any potential agreement must be approached with caution, as the Kingdom has always been a staunch advocate for Palestinian rights. Failing to address this fundamental issue could result in significant regional backlash as Saudi Arabia leading the Muslim world.”
Alhamed, Ansari and Shdadi all said that the Saudi position on this key issue was unwavering. Also backing this point was Abdullah bin Farah al-Shaya, a retired brigadier general who previously served as a Saudi military attaché in Washington.
Shaya recalled the long history of U.S.-Saudi relations that date back to the last year of World War II. Since then, Shaya said, Washington and Riyadh have more often than not managed to find common ground.
“These facts in the history of relations between the two countries require Trump and his political team to appreciate this journey full of cooperation and achieving common interests,” Shaya told Newsweek.
The Trump administration should also “realize the importance of sincere cooperation with Saudi Arabia, which occupies a leading position in the Arab, Islamic and international arenas, and to deal with it as a strategic partner in all areas, including the political and security aspect in resolving conflicts and disputes in the Middle East, especially the Palestinian-Israeli conflict file,” he said.
“Trump and his political team must know that the Saudi position on this file is fair, frank and not debatable,” Shaya said. “It adheres to the stability of its historical and just position on this issue, and it always announces and repeats in all international forums its demand for Israel to end these bloody conflicts by accepting the Arab Peace Initiative.”
But given Netanyahu’s “refusal to accept this initiative,” Shaya said, “Saudi Arabia hopes that Trump will assume his responsibilities as the next president of the United States of America to take a historic position on this issue.”
In doing so, Shaya said Trump should undergo an effort to “show more interaction and to move away from the futile diplomacy of procrastination and to direct his political team to the need for serious cooperation with all relevant parties, especially Saudi Arabia, to contribute directly, effectively and fairly to resolving and ending this ongoing and painful political and security conflict.”
No Compromise
Prior to the Abraham Accords, Egypt and Jordan were the only Arab nations to have forged diplomatic relations with Israel in peace deals brokered in 1979 and 1994, respectively. Mauritania also temporarily established ties with Israel in 1999 but discarded them in 2010 after the outbreak of one of several wars in Hamas-held Gaza that preceded the current conflict.
While the U.S. continues to extoll support for Israel, the ongoing war has spurred a new round of diplomatic relations with the U.N.-recognized State of Palestine among nations, including those in Europe and the Caribbean. Others, such as NATO member Turkey, have broken off all ties with Israel.
The Trump administration is set to inherit this precarious landscape for one of its closest allies, set upon the backdrop of an anticipated desire to strengthen ties with a vital partner that has assumed greater clout on the world stage.
Shaya this as a “complex and thorny issue” that was at the same time “one of the most important pending issues” of the Middle East, one in which Saudi Arabia was urgently looking for peaceful solutions “as long as they serve and enhance its interests, but not at the expense of the Palestinian cause.”
“Trump must announce his final position in accepting and supporting the Arab Initiative and exert pressure on the Israeli leadership to accept it,” Shaya said, “given the resulting extinguishing of the fires of conflicts in the Middle East region.”
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