The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency censured Iran on Thursday evening for failing to cooperate fully with the agency’s monitoring and inspection, as the country is obligated to do under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
The censure by the International Atomic Energy Agency could lead to penalties against Iran, including renewed economic sanctions.
The agency’s Board of Governors voted 19 to 3, with 12 abstentions, for the censure, despite intensive lobbying by Iran and its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. He spoke to officials of countries on the board, including Brazil, South Africa, Bangladesh, Algeria, Burkina Faso and Pakistan, urging them to oppose the resolution, which was put forward by Britain, France, Germany and the United States.
The three votes against were cast by Russia, China and Burkina Faso.
Mr. Araghchi promised that Iran would retaliate if the resolution passed, most likely choosing to accelerate its enrichment of uranium to levels close to bomb grade, rather than putting a cap on that enrichment.
Soon after the censure vote, Iran’s foreign ministry and atomic energy agency announced plans to produce new, more advanced centrifuges for enriching uranium. In a statement, the two agencies accused the Washington and its allies that proposed the censure of using it to pursue “illicit plans.”
The three European nations and the United States moved to censure Iran over its secretive nuclear program and its consistent refusal to answer questions from the I.A.E.A. or allow oversight. The Western powers were hoping to shore up the credibility of the global agency responsible for ensuring safe use of nuclear power and preventing nuclear weapons proliferation before Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House.
The resolution followed the circulation of a report at the agency earlier this week detailing Iran’s expansion of its stockpile of enriched uranium close to weapons grade and its consistent efforts to block the I.A.E.A. from monitoring its progress.
The countries that pushed for the censure are concerned that Iran’s continued recalcitrance presents a significant threat to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and undermines the credibility of the I.A.E.A. itself.
Analysts said that the European countries are also trying to signal that they want to be tough on Iran, wary that the American president-elect may be tempted to cut a separate deal with Iran that could undermine the agency’s role.
Less than 1 percent of the uranium found in nature is the radioactive form, known as U-235. Uranium enrichment raises that fraction, to 3 to 5 percent for nuclear power plants and up to 20 percent for some kinds of research. An atomic bomb requires enrichment to 85 percent or more. Iran has enriched some of its stockpile to 60 percent, which experts say has no known civilian use and could be upgraded quickly to make nuclear weapons.
Iran had tried to avoid I.A.E.A. condemnation by proposing to cap its production of 60 percent enriched uranium for the foreseeable future and expressing a willingness to accept four new agency inspectors to replace the ones Iran banned in September 2023.
But these were seen as more symbolic gestures aimed at avoiding censure and signaling a desire to negotiate with a new American administration in return for the lifting of economic sanctions. If censured, however, Iran warned that it would be unlikely to comply with any proposal to cap enrichment.
Everyone is waiting to see what kind of Iran policy Mr. Trump will support once he is back in office, diplomats and analysts say.
“The Europeans want to show Trump that they are happy to work with him on a tough new joint policy on Iran, rather than Trump excluding them and doing his own deal,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an expert on Iran with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
There is an assumption that as president again, Mr. Trump will try to increase economic pressure on Iran to reach a stricter deal than the 2015 agreement that was meant to restrain the country’s nuclear program.
Mr. Trump criticized that deal as weak and pulled out of it in 2018, reimposing American sanctions on Iran. His policy of “maximum pressure” did not bring Iran to the table, and neither Mr. Trump nor President Biden have been able to replace the 2015 agreement.
Instead Iran, freed from the constraints of the 2015 deal, has steadily increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, enough for several bombs, and is closer to being able to build a nuclear weapon and deliver one on more sophisticated missiles. Iran insists its nuclear program is civilian and that it has no intention to build a nuclear weapon.
Diplomats and analysts say that Iran has been weakened by internal unrest, a bad economy and Israel’s campaign against Tehran and its allies since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 last year. There is significant internal debate in Iran about whether to make another nuclear deal or move more openly toward building a nuclear weapon, they say.
There is a good chance Iran would be open to direct negotiations on a new nuclear deal with Washington, along with the Europeans, the diplomats and analysts say. But Tehran would want such a deal to provide clear economic benefits and restrain the United States and Israel from attacking its nuclear and energy facilities.
European and Iranian officials met in September at the United Nations — after the death of Iran’s hard-line president and the election of a more moderate successor — to discuss de-escalation and re-engagement, with little obvious success.
But the Europeans were struck by the quiet meeting between Elon Musk and Iran’s U.N. ambassador on Nov. 11, first reported by The New York Times, as indicative of tentative early efforts by Mr. Trump’s team to defuse tensions.
Ms. Geranmayeh and Cornelius Adebahr, who studies Iran for Carnegie Europe, say that some Iranian officials argue that their country has a better chance of negotiating with a Republican president who controls Congress and wants to avoid a war and that this may be a last chance to do so. The hope, they say, is that it would yield economic benefits, helping to calm dissent at home.
Others, many of them part of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, argue that the West cannot be trusted and that the United States is a declining power. Israel, they argue, has hit its regional allies so hard that Iran should move more openly to confront Israel and develop a nuclear deterrent.
“Superficially, Iran looks weaker, with a prevalent internal atmosphere of unrest and the regime trying to find its footing, and the openness of the debate speaks to the uncertainty among policymakers in Iran,” Mr. Adebahr said. “But the Iranians don’t consider themselves weak and don’t appear to be in a great rush.”
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