Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, a contentious New Zealand bill that could hurt the Maori people, and the sentencing of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong.
‘That Means World War III’
Russian President Vladimir Putin formally lowered Moscow’s nuclear threshold on Tuesday in response to U.S. President Joe Biden authorizing Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (known as ATACMS) to strike limited targets inside Russia. Putin first proposed such changes to the doctrine in September, when he warned NATO that the use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russia would mean that Moscow is at war with the military alliance.
Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine, a contentious New Zealand bill that could hurt the Maori people, and the sentencing of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong.
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‘That Means World War III’
Russian President Vladimir Putin formally lowered Moscow’s nuclear threshold on Tuesday in response to U.S. President Joe Biden authorizing Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (known as ATACMS) to strike limited targets inside Russia. Putin first proposed such changes to the doctrine in September, when he warned NATO that the use of Western-supplied long-range weapons against Russia would mean that Moscow is at war with the military alliance.
The new doctrine says any attack against Moscow by a nonnuclear actor with the “participation or support of a nuclear power” will be seen as a “joint attack on the Russian Federation.” The policy also outlined that any aggression against the Kremlin by a member of a military bloc will be viewed as “an aggression by the entire bloc,” signaling a thinly veiled threat against NATO.
Moscow “reserves the right” to use nuclear weapons to respond to a conventional weapons attack that threatens Russia’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said on Tuesday. He affirmed that a Ukrainian attack using long-range U.S. missiles could trigger such a response, though the doctrine remains broad enough to allow Putin to avoid committing to nuclear engagement.
“Russia’s new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. Russia could retaliate with [weapons of mass destruction] against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they’re located,” former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted on X. “That means World War III.”
Early Tuesday, Ukrainian troops fired six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles at a military facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine. According to Ukrainian defense official Andrii Kovalenko, the strike hit warehouses holding “artillery ammunition, including North Korean ammunition for their systems; guided aerial bombs; antiaircraft missiles; and ammunition for multiple-launch rocket systems.” Russian authorities said Moscow’s air defenses intercepted five of the missiles and damaged one more, reporting no casualties. Russia largely uses S-400 and the newer S-500 missile systems to counter ballistic missiles.
This was the first time that U.S.-supplied ATAMCS were used to hit targets inside Russia; previously, they have only been used to strike locations in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, including Crimea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called their usage in the Bryansk region “a signal that they want escalation,” referring to the United States and its Western allies.
Washington first supplied Kyiv with a version of ATACMS in October 2023 that had the capability of hitting targets roughly 100 miles away; in April 2024, it began supplying longer-range versions with the ability to travel 190 miles with the restriction that they only be used to hit targets in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Biden was reportedly reluctant to expand their usage into Russia proper for fear of escalation. However, that changed when intelligence officials learned that North Korea had deployed thousands of troops to Russia to help retake the Kursk region. As the war hit its 1,000th day on Tuesday, analysts argue that Putin’s altered nuclear doctrine indicates his readiness to force the West to back down.
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What We’re Following
Maori rights. Tens of thousands of people converged on New Zealand’s Parliament in Wellington on Tuesday to oppose legislation that would reshape the founding Treaty of Waitangi between the country’s Indigenous Maori and the British crown. If passed, the law would undercut special rights given to the Maori people that were instituted to help rectify harm done by colonization. Tuesday’s gathering was one of the largest protests in support of Maori rights in the country’s history. It was part of a nine-day hikoi (or peaceful march) by Maori rights supporters across the country.
The right-wing Act party introduced the contentious legislation, known as the Treaty Principles Bill, for a first vote last Thursday. In protest, Maori and allied lawmakers performed a traditional haka ceremonial dance on the Parliament floor. The Act party’s proposal is widely unpopular, and experts expect that it will not become law.
National security trial. A Hong Kong court sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists on Tuesday to up to 10 years in prison, concluding the city’s biggest national security case. The defendants were arrested in 2021 and accused of conspiracy to commit subversion when they assisted in an unofficial primary election held just weeks after a Beijing-imposed national security law went into effect. Human rights activists have accused the legislation of being used to silence critics.
“Our true crime for Beijing is that we were not content with playing along in manipulated elections,” Gwyneth Ho, a former journalist who was sentenced to seven years for running as a candidate in the unofficial primary, posted on social media. Some have said that the trial shows how officials suppressed disagreement after the anti-government demonstrations in 2019, which led to the passage of the national security law that allowed the extradition of political dissidents to mainland China.
Mutual defense. The United States and the Philippines signed a treaty on Monday to secure the exchange of military intelligence and technology. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the so-called General Security of Military Information Agreement would cover any Chinese attack on Manila’s forces in the South China Sea, adding on Tuesday that the treaty would extend into the incoming Trump administration.
Washington and Manila have long upheld a mutual defense treaty that grants U.S. military access to Philippine territory. Strengthening such policies have becoming more paramount in recent years with Beijing increasing its threats in the Indo-Pacific, including in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. The United States is “profoundly committed to the defense of the Philippines” and maintains an “ironclad” commitment to its mutual defense, Austin said.
Odds and Ends
If you’re still reeling from the theft of 48,488 pounds of French artisan cheese last month, prepare yourself for news of another dairy heist. Last Thursday, Canadian authorities revealed that they had foiled an attempted cheese robbery at a Whole Foods in northern Vancouver in September. The suspect fled local police on foot, leaving behind thousands of dollars’ worth of cheesy goodness in a cart outside. “Sadly, the cheese was no longer able to be sold after it left the fridge,” constable Mansoor Sahak said.
The post Putin Lowers Russia’s Nuclear Threshold in Warning to West appeared first on Foreign Policy.
