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Five of Cincinnati’s six losses have come by one possession, with three of them coming down to the literal last play of the game. The Bengals blew double-digit leads in not one but two losses to the Ravens, and they also lost to the Chiefs on a last-second field goal after a tough defensive pass interference penalty called against them.
Meanwhile, three of their four wins have been by double-digits, with their fourth being a seven-point victory over the Browns, who needed a last-minute touchdown to keep that game to one score.
On the other side of the field, the 6-3 Chargers are a solid but unspectacular team. They are well balanced, with the 10th-best DVOA in the NFL (12th-ranked offense and eighth-ranked defense), but they have gotten out to a 6-3 record against the easiest schedule in the entire NFL.
According to DVOA, the Chargers have had the 32nd-ranked strength of schedule so far. They have played four teams in the top half of the NFL in terms of DVOA, with losses in three of those four. The Chargers’ lone victory this year against a top-half DVOA team came against the Denver Broncos in Week 6, before the Broncos had taken a leap forward.
While the Bengals do not have a winning record, they do have the 15th-ranked DVOA, another metric indicating they are better than their record.
These teams are much more closely matched than their records indicate, so we will ride with the Bengals as slight underdogs in this one.
Bengals moneyline (+108): 1 Unit
Jaguars +14 (-115) Caesars
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. ET
Backing the lost Jaguars against the team that has been the best in the NFL, the Lions, is going to make your stomach feel queasy, but this is really just a play on the number.
It is rare to see a team favored by two touchdowns in the NFL. While it makes complete sense when you see the 10-1 Lions up against the 2-8 Jaguars, who are missing their starting QB, it is still a little too rich for our blood.
As bad as the Jaguars have been this season, the issue has been losing close as opposed to getting completely blown out. Only two of their eight losses have been by even one score, let alone two scores.
Even last week, a game in which QB Mac Jones started for the injured Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars played the Vikings close. They actually led to begin the third quarter, and had a chance to win the game at the end.
We also saw the Lions sleep-walk through a game against an AFC South opponent just last week. The Lions did manage to win that game against Houston, but that was despite Jared Goff throwing an obscene five interceptions.
This is actually the second of three straight games Detroit has against the AFC South, with the Lions playing the Colts next week. The Lions did blow out the Titans earlier this year, but that was on the back of four Tennessee turnovers and a touchdown on special teams. The Lions only had 225 yards of total offense in that game.
So, the guess here is that this Lions team is going to play down to their competition somewhat, as the back half of their schedule is loaded with divisional games and high-profile games against top teams Buffalo and San Francisco.
Jaguars +14 (-115): 1 Unit
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The post NFL Week 11 Upset Picks: Target Underdogs Cincinnati, Jacksonville appeared first on Newsweek.