The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has said that a tropical depression brewing in the Caribbean could become a hurricane in the coming days.
Tropical Depression 19 is expected to intensify into the next named storm of the season—Sara—as it continues its path through the Caribbean and toward Central America. The storm is located off the coast of Honduras with wind speeds of 35 mph, and is expected to track westward before bending to a northwesterly direction once it hits Belize and Mexico.
Conditions in the area are “conducive for intensification during the next day or two while the system remains over water, with low vertical wind shear and relatively high mid-level humidities,” the NHC says. Wind speeds are projected to reach 60 mph by the time the storm hits land.
“Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches are expected over northern Honduras.” This will “lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.”
The NHC said dangerous storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the northern coast of Honduras, with the surge likely being accompanied by “large and destructive waves.”
The NHC said the storm could be at hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday, with hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings in effect. The system is also forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico “at or near hurricane strength by early next week,” prompting the risk of “dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.”
AccuWeather has reported that the storm’s path could curve upward in a northeasterly direction toward Cuba and southern Florida. It said it is “strongly recommended to monitor the progress of the evolving tropical threat.” AccuWeather has forecast the storm will increase in speed as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
“Should the current tropical rainstorm ramp up and strike as forecast, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida,” AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist Dave Houk said. “If so, that will surpass the record of three landfalls in one season from 2004.”
However, the NHC has said it is too soon to predict what impacts the system could bring to parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba, if it intensifies into next week. Current maps produced by the NHC show the storm will have passed over Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula by the early hours of Tuesday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that only three hurricanes have previously made landfall in November, with ones in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985.
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