Inflation is expected to have ticked up slightly on an annual basis in October, the latest evidence that while cost increases are coming under control, they are not entirely vanquished.
The Consumer Price Index, set for release on Wednesday, probably climbed 2.6 percent from a year earlier, higher than September’s 2.4 percent. And after food and fuel prices are stripped out to give a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, economists forecast that “core” inflation probably held steady at 3.3 percent.
On a monthly basis, both the overall and core price measures are expected to have climbed at a moderate pace, one that matches the increase from August to September.
While inflation is much slower than the 9.1 percent pace it reached in mid-2022, it remains quicker than it was in the years leading up to the pandemic. Wednesday’s report is likely to serve as a reminder that while the Federal Reserve has made considerable progress in wrestling price increases back under control, the central bank’s job is not done.
Fed officials are responsible for maintaining low and stable inflation and full employment. They raised interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023 to try to slow the economy and pull rapid price increases under control. They began cutting rates this year as inflation slowed, lowering borrowing costs in September and at their meeting this month. Interest rates are now set to a range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent.
But officials have been careful not to declare victory — especially when many American consumers are still feeling pain from elevated prices. The slowdown in inflation means that prices are no longer climbing as quickly, but they are still noticeably higher than they were just a few years ago.
“Inflation has come way down, the economy is still strong here, wages are moving up but at a sustainable level,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a news conference last week. “But it will be some time,” he added, “before people, you know, regain their confidence and feel that.”
Popular anger about inflation was obvious at the polls last week, as voters ousted Democrats and elected Donald J. Trump to the White House. Both surveys and exit polls showed that the economy and inflation were major concerns for Americans as they headed into the election.
Of course, Mr. Trump’s win could shake up the economic outlook — including the path for inflation.
Many economists have warned that some of his promises, including much higher tariffs, could reignite inflation.
Mr. Trump himself has pledged to kill inflation, which he calls a “country buster,” by lowering fuel prices through a cocktail of deregulation and geopolitical maneuvering. Analysts have been skeptical that he could lower energy prices as much as he has promised.
The Fed might eventually need to take the outlook for government policy into account as it thinks about how much it can cut interest rates. But Mr. Powell said last week that it was too soon for the central bank to begin to model what Mr. Trump’s win would mean for its own path.
“It’s such an early stage,” he said. “We don’t know what the policies are.”
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