BERLIN — Amid all the commotion over the U.S. presidential election last week, you may have missed many of the details concerning another piece of significant news: the collapse of Germany’s ruling coalition.
Just hours after it became clear that Donald Trump had won the U.S. vote, sending shockwaves across Europe, Chancellor Olaf Scholz appeared before cameras to announce the end of his battered, three-way alliance in rather dramatic fashion (at least by the staid standard of German politics). Scholz’s announcement set in motion a series of events that will lead to a German snap election within months, although the exact timing isn’t yet clear.
Here’s a rundown to bring you up to speed on what just happened in Germany — and what to expect next.
Why did the ruling coalition fall?
Germany’s three-party ruling coalition — consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens on the left side of the political spectrum, and the fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party (FDP) on the center right — was never a match made in heaven. Both the SPD and the Greens favor a strong social safety net and big investment to speed economic growth and the green energy transition. The FDP, on the other hand, believes in less government and less spending.
You may ask yourself why this triad came together in the first place. Good question! Simply put, there weren’t a lot of options given Germany’s increasingly splintered political landscape, as the rise of upstart parties has made it more difficult for the big-tent parties — the SPD and the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) — to form two-party coalition governments.
The fragmentation has worsened with the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, now polling in second place nationally, and will continue with the arrival of populist-left newcomer Alliance Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW). Post-war Germany hasn’t had much experience of larger coalitions (Scholz’s fallen triad was the first three-way alliance in over six decades), but the ongoing division may make such coalitions — which tend to be more volatile — the new norm.
The key moment in the early demise of Scholz’s coalition came a year ago, when Germany’s top court handed down a bombshell ruling that ended a workaround the government had been using to spend money without violating the country’s constitutional “debt brake.” In order to circumvent those self-imposed fiscal strictures, Scholz’s coalition had relied on a network of “special funds” outside the main budget. The court deemed the practice unlawful, blowing a €60 billion hole in the federal budget in the process.
After that, Scholz’s coalition, which had relied on the free flow of money to paper over its major ideological differences, was not long for this world. A string of embarrassing election defeats and record-low approval ratings prompted the coalition parties to play to their bases to revive their political fortunes, worsening their incessant squabbling. FDP leader Christian Linder and his party colleagues repeatedly threatened to pull the plug on the coalition and force new elections. Last Wednesday night, Scholz beat Linder to the punch by firing him, prompting the FDP to quit the coalition.
Not to pat ourselves on the back, but we forecast an early end for Scholz and company back in June.
When will the election take place?
That’s the $64,000 question.
Germany, wary of repeating the crippling instability of the Weimar Republic of the early 20th century, doesn’t make it easy to hold a snap election. Before it happens, Scholz must call (and lose) a confidence vote in parliament, an outcome that is virtually certain. Germany’s president would then be allowed to dissolve the parliament within 21 days. A snap election would follow within another 60 days.
The biggest question in German politics nowadays is when Scholz will call for the confidence vote. After he fired Lindner on national television, the chancellor said he intended to continue ruling with a minority government until Jan. 15, at which time he’d hold a confidence vote leading to a new election by the end of March. But after he proposed this timeline, his political opponents demanded he drastically accelerate the schedule.
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU and likely Germany’s next chancellor, based on current polling, called on Scholz to ensure an election happens before Trump takes office in the U.S. on Jan. 20, arguing the political urgency of the moment demanded haste. “We simply cannot afford to have a government without a majority in Germany for several months,” he said.
For both leaders there is a clear political calculus. For the CDU, an earlier election would allow it to capitalize on its relatively strong current support — and give its opponents less time to rebuild. Scholz, meanwhile, wants time to improve his party’s chances and pass some popular legislation to preserve and bolster social benefits.
In a Sunday television interview, Scholz appeared to bow to the pressure and said he was prepared to hold a vote of confidence before Christmas. That’s still far too late for Merz, however.
But even if the political will can be found, Germany’s formidable bureaucracy — not known for its swift responses — might still stand in the way. The leader of the federal body that oversees elections reportedly warned in a letter to Scholz that an election in the first two months of 2025 would lead to “incalculable risks.” Practical impediments, the official wrote, included procuring enough paper and adequate printing services.
Who will win?
Merz’s CDU and their conservative Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are currently leading in polls by a wide margin, on 32 percent support, and will likely lead any future coalition government. Scholz’s SPD, on the other hand, is polling third on 16 percent, just behind the far-right AfD.
Because the CDU has vowed not to form a federal coalition with the AfD, it is almost certain to form a coalition with Scholz’s SPD (which, by then, may well have a new leader at the top of its ticket — possibly this guy). Based on current polling and the country’s political fragmentation, the conservatives and the SPD may need a third party with which to govern.
The two main contenders are familiar suspects that wouldn’t be a great fit. The Greens —currently polling at 10 percent — have become a favorite target of the conservatives for their policies on immigration and the climate. The FDP would be a better match for the conservatives, but not so much for the SPD, for obvious reasons. Besides, the FDP is now polling at 4 percent — below the threshold needed to make it into parliament — so they may not be an option anyway.
However things shake out, in other words, the next coalition may be just as fractious as the last one.
Does any of this matter?
This is a question we often ask ourselves. As Germany’s leaders squabble over when to hold a confidence vote, some 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops appear to be preparing to launch an assault on Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, while Russian forces continue to make advances along the front in Ukraine.
In a nutshell, Ukraine is increasingly in trouble as it enters the critical winter months in the war, while the EU’s most powerful nations — Germany and France — look increasingly adrift due to the political weakness of their leaders. Couple that with the impending return of Donald Trump, who has not only threatened to cut U.S. aid to Ukraine, but has even encouraged Moscow to “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members that don’t meet the alliance’s defense spending targets.
Given those circumstances, Berlin — the second biggest contributor of military aid to Ukraine behind the U.S. — would naturally be the one to rally European capitals to send clear signals of support to Ukraine and to bolster their own defenses. Instead, Germany is consumed by domestic troubles and deadlock, and paralyzed by its inability even to pass a budget for 2025.
It’s a particularly bad time for a leadership vacuum in Germany for other reasons as well: The country’s economy is contracting just as Trump takes office, having promised to increase tariffs — including on German cars.
In a some months time, things may look quite different in Germany. Merz, the likely next chancellor, is far more hawkish when it comes to aid for Ukraine and says he has a free-market recipe for lifting the German economy out of its rut. At the same time, he has moved Germany’s conservatives much farther to the right compared to during the Angela Merkel years, and has expressed a desire to cut “deals” with Trump.
But it will likely take several months for an election to take place and for a coalition to take shape after the vote. Given the immense challenges that confront Germany and Europe, that’s a long time to wait for the next German government.
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