PARIS — French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has passed a major symbolic milestone: By remaining in power for more than 49 days, he has outlasted former British Prime Minister Liz Truss and her notorious head of lettuce.
For weeks, the odds seemed stacked against Barnier’s making it even this long. The former European Union chief Brexit negotiator had been a surprise pick for the job when French President Emmanuel Macron tapped him in early September with the backing of conservatives and reluctant centrists, a marriage of convenience that has been dogged by incessant quarreling.
With no clear majority in a parliament divided among three groups — those who backed Barnier, along with an alliance of left-wing parties determined to bring down the government and the far-right National Rally — the only thing separating Barnier from political oblivion has been extremist leader Marine Le Pen, who holds a sword of Damocles over his future.
Weeks into his premiership, however, Barnier has not only survived but is even thriving after imposing a throwback, almost anachronistic style of governance.
In contrast to Macron’s top-down energetic form of leadership or the bombastic style of United States President-elect Donald Trump, Barnier has been a man of few words, seemingly adopting a light touch and shying from confrontation in dealing with his ministers and lawmakers.
The 73-year-old conservative has also fervently embraced his old-school “dinosaur” reputation. His speeches have been peppered with dated platitudes and sayings from his Savoie regional bastion, easy prey for opponents who have mocked him as “fossilized.” Listening to Barnier, one lawmaker said, was like watching paint dry.
“Do you know anyone who puts up Barnier posters in their room?” asked an ally of the French president, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
In French political circles, Barnier has even earned the nickname “Babar,” the famed imperturbable elephant from French children’s literature whose clothes were too large for him — not unlike Barnier’s flappy jackets, and a stark contrast to the tailored suits of Macron’s “startup nation” generation.
Not quite so cute
But Barnier’s approach belies the gravity of his actions since coming to power. The French prime minister has made an immediate priority of pushing through an unpopular 2025 budget that includes €40 billion in spending cuts and €20 billion in tax hikes. The object is to bring France’s spiraling budget deficit back in line with EU rules in the coming years.
In keeping with the current public mood, Barnier has made a point of appearing frugal. He is often seen walking to his appointments and has declined to live in the Matignon, the opulent Parisian palace on the left bank of the Seine that French prime ministers normally call home.
For many lawmakers in Macron’s centrist coalition, who are hoping for a respite after two blistering election defeats this year, Barnier is something of an asset.
“He doesn’t spark enthusiasm but I don’t think people want to be enthused, they want to be reassured,” said a lawmaker belonging to Macron’s coalition.
“[Barnier] contrasts with know-it-all guys like myself,” he joked.
According to a recent opinion poll, Barnier has an approval rating of 37 percent. It’s still above Macron’s paltry 25 percent, but the prime minister has been losing points since his appointment.
Surviving
So it’s 1-0 for Barnier in his contest with the lettuce. (The trope comes from an Oct. 22, 2022 column in The Economist, which noted that former Prime Minister Truss’ brief tenure had been “the shortest in British political history” and equivalent to “the shelf-life of a lettuce.”)
How much longer Barnier survives, however, now depends on circumstances beyond his control.
The National Assembly, France’s more powerful lower house of parliament, is currently debating the budget, and it’s unlikely the left and the far right will agree on the cuts and tax hikes needed to balance the books. Even if Barnier can rely on support from the right-leaning Senate, he will still need to risk a motion of no-confidence in the lower house to get his budget through the legislature. A vote will likely take place in December.
His fate would then again rest in Le Pen’s hands. Will the far-right leader, who has built her political career as an anti-establishment figure, want to be saddled with Barnier’s unpopular budget? Or will she vote to topple the government and risk pushing France toward a political and financial crisis?
At the moment, Le Pen is busy saving her own skin in a trial that might imperil her political future. In a few weeks, however, things might look quite different.
If Le Pen ultimately decides to withdraw her party’s tacit support for the government, “Michel Barnier will be remembered as the man who governed for three months and who didn’t get anything done,” said the same ally quoted above.
Barnier may have outlived the lettuce, but he’s unlikely to outlive Babar.
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