Donald Trump’s clear path to electoral victory shields the United States and the world from a few months of litigation and uncertainty. That doesn’t mean the ride between now and January will be smooth.
The Biden administration now has an expiration date, and a to-do list. Topping it will likely be tapping the remaining presidential drawdown authority to get financial and military aid to Ukraine, which remains locked in an existential struggle for survival after Russia’s invasion and which may soon face pressure from Trump and his administration to reach a negotiated peace with Moscow.
Donald Trump’s clear path to electoral victory shields the United States and the world from a few months of litigation and uncertainty. That doesn’t mean the ride between now and January will be smooth.
The Biden administration now has an expiration date, and a to-do list. Topping it will likely be tapping the remaining presidential drawdown authority to get financial and military aid to Ukraine, which remains locked in an existential struggle for survival after Russia’s invasion and which may soon face pressure from Trump and his administration to reach a negotiated peace with Moscow.
As of late October, the Biden administration still had $5.5 billion it could throw into Ukraine’s war chest. In the past, that has come in the form of air-defense batteries, battle tanks, and long-rage U.S. firepower that can help Ukraine balance the playing field against a larger neighbor with seemingly inexhaustible manpower and ample assistance from allies in Asia.
With the election over, and new realities dawning, there may also be a new perspective in Washington: Longtime U.S. restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets beyond the front line may now be loosened. Ukraine has pleaded for months to be unleashed, and might now get the chance.
That same shift in Washington’s post-electoral calculus could also apply to broader issues. With no reason to worry about spiking oil and gasoline prices, the United States may be more amenable not only to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, but also to the unsheathing of additional sanctions on miscreant oil producers such as Iran and Venezuela, which skated clear of sanctions all year thanks to U.S. worries about the domestic impact of an energy war.
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.
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