Investors sent stocks higher, drove up the dollar against major currencies and pushed up yields on U.S. Treasury bonds as former President Donald J. Trump closed in on an election victory.
U.S. stock futures, which had risen steadily overnight, surged more than 2 percent. Historically, stock markets fall in the weeks leading up to the election and then rally once a result is known.
In addition, yields on U.S. government bonds climbed higher — moves that have all been associated with the possibility of higher deficits and economic stimulus under a Trump administration.
Bitcoin surged to record highs, as Mr. Trump has promised to end the Biden administration’s regulatory push and establish the United States as the “crypto capital of the planet.”
The U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen, as well as the euro, Mexican peso and Chinese yuan — the currencies of major trading partners expected to be heavily affected by Mr. Trump’s proposal to raise tariffs.
In October, investors started driving up yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and pushing the dollar higher against global currencies as they started to see a better chance of a Republican victory.
This was caused in part by the expectation that Mr. Trump’s proposed policies on taxes, trade and immigration may bolster growth at the same time as substantially increasing government spending. Together, analysts believe, they would drive interest rates higher over time.
In a sign of the market anticipating a second Trump term, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by more than 0.15 percentage points — a big move in that market — to more than 4.4 percent on Wednesday morning.
An index measuring the value of the dollar against several other major currencies rose 1.4 percent. Among the most closely watched currencies, the Mexican peso fell 2.6 percent, the Japanese yen weakened 1.6 percent and the euro lost 1.6 percent.
Investment advisers in Asia and Europe described a lengthy day and night spent fielding calls from clients as the election results rolled in, discussing the potential implications of a Trump victory.
Stock markets in Europe rose in early trading on Wednesday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index gaining more than 1 percent.
In Europe, yields on government bonds fell as investors bets on central bank rate cuts to bolster the region’s economies, especially the export-oriented nations that could be hurt by the tariffs Mr. Trump talked about during his campaign. But analysts at Rabobank said this was a knee-jerk reaction, and “the market has clearly yet to settle on a consensus narrative,” given that stocks were rallying.
Across Asia, stock markets extended gains from Tuesday. In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 2.6 percent. Stocks in mainland China fell slightly, and Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong tumbled 2.2 percent.
Bruce Pang, chief economist for the greater China area at JLL, a real estate and investment management firm, said the Hong Kong stocks were down because the companies listed there were more exposed to a weaker Chinese currency.
Mr. Trump’s more protectionist policies might also mean that Chinese policymakers will focus more on driving domestic demand in the economy instead of expecting exports to stimulate growth. The markets will be watching even more closely if Beijing announces additional stimulus measures after a key policy meeting this week.
For Chinese investors, Mr. Pang said, a victory for the former president may mean fewer uncertainties than a victory for Ms. Harris or even the first Trump presidency.
“There will be tensions geopolitically, but it’s still more predictable,” he said. “There is some history there.”
In the volatile cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin rose 6 percent in the last 24 hours to more than $74,000, eclipsing a record high set in March. Mr. Trump had been promoting himself as a crypto supporter on the campaign trail, fueling hopes that a Republican victory would propel digital currency prices higher.
This year, uncertainty over the election’s outcome or a contested result had driven money into gold, which is considered a safe-haven investment during turbulent times. But with a Republican victory appearing more likely, gold prices, which have been near a record high, fell slightly.
The stock of Tesla, the electric vehicle company run by Elon Musk, who has emerged as one of Mr. Trump’s most prominent backers, rose more than 10 percent. Mr. Trump could ease regulatory scrutiny of Telsa and has promised to install Mr. Musk as head of a “government efficiency” panel.
But no stock is more directly linked to Mr. Trump’s political fate than Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social. Mr. Trump is the social network’s most important user and largest shareholder, and the company’s shares have traded largely as a proxy for Mr. Trump’s political fortunes.
Trump Media’s stock price swung wildly in after-hours trading, on heavy volume, rising more than 30 percent.
In China, an aviation software and equipment company, Wisesoft, whose Chinese name sounds like “Trump wins big” in Mandarin and has become a Trump meme stock in recent weeks, rose 10 percent on Wednesday. Its stock price has more than doubled in the last month.
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