Getting a head start on the holiday season, Warner Bros begins overseas release on Amazon MGM Studios’ Red One today in such majors as the UK, Korea and Spain. Through Friday, a total 75 international box office markets will be on board. The rollout comes one week before domestic on the $200 million Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans Santa Claus caper movie as the calendar starts to crowd up in November.
The Seven Bucks production is eyeing an international launch in the $25M-$30M range. Among Johnson’s family film comps, we’re looking at 2021’s Jungle Cruise, which did $26M in like markets at open.
Expect the biggest plays to be in English-speaking hubs, Latin America and Western Europe. While it’s opening in China on Friday, and is in second place for presales that day, it’s not expected to do much there. Overall, this Christmas movie could face difficulty in Asia. Note that Korea’s opening today landed at No. 4 with $63K including previews.
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Red One was originally greenlit for streaming, but Amazon MGM pivoted to theatrical after it tested well. WB has overseas via its offshore deal with Amazon MGM. However, the latter opted not to release theatrically in France given the complicated windows system there which would have held it from streaming for 17 months (likewise Turkey, which has a five-month window).
Domestically, as Anthony has noted, the movie hit early tracking in late October eyeing a $36M opening in the U.S. and Canada for the November 15 frame, with a chance for upside and first choice among teen boys, followed by older females and males. Young males are also expected to turn out internationally, and if word of mouth works (though early reviews are at 40% on Rotten Tomatoes), Red One could play through the upcoming crowded field of female-skewing titles like Moana 2 and Wicked.
During this overseas opening, Red One also has IMAX and PLFs before they segue to Gladiator next week, and others beyond. Still, it’s likely that Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance remains in the top position offshore this weekend in what will be its third frame.
The Red One team including Johnson, Evans, JK Simmons, Lucy Liu, Kiernan Shipka, Bonnie Hunt and director Jake Kasdan were in Berlin on Sunday for the world premiere before heading to the UK for a photocall and a sit-down with Graham Norton.
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