On second thought, hold that Champagne.
After months of campaigning, a last-minute swap at the top of the presidential ticket and one of the closest-fought election races in recent American history, election day has finally arrived in the United States. But don’t expect Europe to join in the election night fun.
In stark contrast to pre-pandemic ballots, U.S. election night 2024 promises to be a sober affair in Europe, with U.S. officials in most European power centers having ditched the usual festivities. Embassies from Brussels to London, Paris and Berlin have decided against holding their usual watch parties.
The reason? The Trump effect. Many officials are still smarting from the shock 2016 election, when Donald Trump unexpectedly beat Hillary Clinton for the presidency — a political earthquake that left many top members of America’s diplomatic corps exposed as they absorbed the stunning election results in the presence of hundreds of journalists, foreign diplomats and officials who had been invited to election night parties.
“I don’t think there was appetite to watch another Trump victory,” said a senior diplomat based in Europe, adding that the 2016 embassy events had been “calamitous.”
That cringe moment was captured by former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power, who recalled in her autobiography how she had invited all female ambassadors to the U.N. to her residence for an election night bash only to watch her dreams of America’s first woman president go up in smoke.
Similar scenes played out in embassies across Europe. In Brussels in November 2016, then-Ambassador Anthony Gardner hosted an election party in the regal U.S. Embassy on Boulevard du Régent in Brussels. Attendees entered through the foyer under a smiling portrait of then-Commander in Chief President Barack Obama.
Attendees enjoyed wine and amuse-bouches as they watched the results roll in on giant TV screens. But as it became apparent voters were breaking for Trump, the mood darkened; one woman wept quietly. Trump’s poll-defying win revived uncomfortable Brussels bubble memories of the shock Brexit referendum result a few months earlier.
This time around, then, Europe is hedging its bets. The U.S. Mission in Brussels is not hosting a party (though the U.S. ambassador to Belgium will host a breakfast the following day). Similarly, embassies in London, Paris and Berlin won’t be opening their doors, though the U.S. Embassy in Rome is hosting an election night event Tuesday.
The decision to nix election night festivities may also reflect the unusually politicized nature of America’s diplomatic corps. Most of the State Department’s top envoys around the world are political appointees and allies or donors of the sitting president. The current U.S. ambassadors in Europe’s top capitals, for example — like Ambassador Mark Gitenstein in Brussels and Ambassador Jane Hartley in London — are close allies of Democratic President Joe Biden.
A spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in London said it “appreciates the long-standing energy and excitement around U.S. presidential elections which have been carried out over nearly 250 years of democracy,” but added that “election day does not end on election night. Time may be required to count votes and let the electoral process work.”
The comments captured another underlying reason why diplomats may be avoiding the public glare on election night — there is deep unease about the strength of the U.S. democratic system after disputes about the outcome of the 2020 election led to an attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.
Eight years on from 2016, the cautious approach to election night also reflects the dramatically different approach that Europe is taking to the prospect of a Trump presidency this time around. Having been caught on the wrong foot by Trump’s victory in 2016, European and American top officials are resolved not to let the same thing happen again.
The EU, like governments around Europe, has been game-planning a possible Trump victory after having been blindsided in 2016. Over the last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s top official, Björn Seibert, has been huddling with ambassadors of the EU’s 27 countries and other top officials to model how the bloc will respond to the U.S. election.
Though transatlantic relations will endure challenges, whoever wins on Nov. 5 — Vice President Kamala Harris has signaled she will prioritize American workers and raise tariffs — the possibility of a second Trump presidency has alarmed the EU. Trump’s policy vision could wreak havoc on the EU-U.S. relationship: His plans to increase tariffs would likely unleash a trade war, while he has called on Europe to cough up more on defense and on Ukraine, and has declined to commit to NATO. Not to mention what a Trump presidency would mean for international cooperation on climate, which could pressure Europe to increase its own efforts to tackle the climate crisis.
One person who will have some bubbly on ice is Hungarian strongman Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who called Trump to wish him luck last week. As it happens, Orbán, whose country holds the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, will be hosting European leaders in Budapest for a summit later this week as the U.S. results roll in. He has said he will open “several bottles of Champagne” if Trump wins — but he could find himself drinking alone.
Rosa Prince and Clea Caulcutt contributed to this report.
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