For Elon Musk, it all comes down to this.
In the final hours of the presidential campaign, Mr. Musk, the world’s richest person, is under significant pressure to deliver voter turnout for former President Donald J. Trump, who has outsourced much of his on-the-ground effort to the Musk super PAC.
Canvassers for America PAC, Mr. Musk’s group, have knocked on about 10 million doors, according to a person familiar with the figures. But the group has also drawn much scrutiny, including from some people inside Mr. Trump’s operation who worry about relying so heavily on an outside organization for get-out-the vote work.
America PAC hopes to have up to 5,500 canvassers knocking on doors in the seven battleground states and in its targeted congressional districts on Monday and Tuesday, according to a person with knowledge of the operation. That would be more than twice the daily average of 2,500 canvassers it has had knocking on doors until now.
In recent days, the group has targeted the most infrequent voters, including Republicans who have not voted in as long as a decade. It’s a resource-heavy approach, but America PAC is not exactly resource-limited.
Mr. Musk has put at least $119 million into the group and has emerged as a core part of Mr. Trump’s election strategy. If Mr. Trump wins, Mr. Musk is likely to play a major part in Mr. Trump’s transition and administration. If he loses, some allies of the former president have predicted that Mr. Musk could be a tempting scapegoat, particularly if his field operation is seen as insufficient.
The point of campaign field operations is to identify likely supporters and then encourage them with door knocks, pamphlets and text messages until they go to the polls.
Already, there are skeptics of Mr. Musk’s approach within the Republican establishment. Terry Dittrich, chairman of the Republican Party in Waukesha County, Wis., west of Milwaukee, called outside groups like the Musk canvassers “carpet bombers.”
“These guys come in the last two or three weeks and they just want to push the vote out,” Mr. Dittrich said. “How much of an impact that has? I don’t know.”
He added, “We’re more interested in cultivating the relationships long-term.”
Relying on paid canvassers, rather than loyal party volunteers, also presents a risk. There are always concerns about fraud in the paid-canvassing industry, and America PAC has been no exception, dogged by accusations that it may have not knocked on as many doors as its data shows.
To increase its reach in the final hours, America PAC aims to redeploy everyone who has canvassed for it before, even infrequently. Many of its most active canvassers, staying in hotels paid for by America PAC, are working about six days a week, and they have been told in recent days to not expect any days off through Election Day.
But it is unclear how much of a surge the super PAC will be able to marshal. Canvassers are itinerant and hard to track down. Across Arizona, Nevada and Michigan combined, there are fewer than 1,500 canvassers who have knocked on over 50 doors within the past week, according to a person with knowledge of the group’s operations. Over the last week, about 4,000 canvassers have been active in the seven presidential battleground states, according to a second person with knowledge of the effort, along with another 600 or so in congressional districts.
As they door-knock on Tuesday, canvassers for Mr. Musk’s group plan to focus on people who have previously told the super PAC that they intend to support Mr. Trump but have not yet voted, one of the people said.
America PAC is also encouraging Trump supporters to vote via radio and digital advertising with social pressure. “Your voting record is public,” says one ad appearing on Facebook. “Don’t sit this election out.”
“Nothing could make Kamala Harris happier than you sitting out this election,” says an America PAC ad airing on YouTube. “Because if you don’t vote, she wins.”
The group is also offering rides to the polls in hurricane-ravaged parts of North Carolina, and perhaps other states as well.
Some of Mr. Musk’s canvassers have been instructed to not make plans after Tuesday. In Michigan, for instance, some canvassers have been instructed to focus on “ballot curing” after Election Day, returning to the doors of Trump supporters whose votes were registered as spoiled to let them know so they can resubmit the ballot, according to two people with knowledge of the operation.
Still, for all this activity, the star of Mr. Musk’s super PAC has been the billionaire himself. He is scheduled to host two more telephone town halls, on Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. And he has had plans to attend Mr. Trump’s watch party in Palm Beach, Fla., on Tuesday evening.
One place where Mr. Musk was not: state court in Philadelphia on Monday, when a judge was expected to decide whether to issue an injunction against Mr. Musk’s daily $1 million giveaway to people who sign his petition. Mr. Musk did not enter the courtroom with his lawyers on Monday morning. Given how close Election Day is, whatever decision is made would have little immediate effect beyond serving as a political talking point or opening the door to other investigations.
Mr. Musk in private conversations has been in good spirits about the race and his super PAC’s performance, according to two people who have spoken with him recently. Along with his mother and young son, he visited with Mr. Trump backstage at the former president’s rally at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27, according to a person with knowledge of the conversation, and Mr. Musk also visited Mr. Trump’s senior staff.
But for all his optimism, Mr. Musk also appears to be laying the groundwork for contesting the legitimacy of the election results. He regularly highlights perceived election fraud in his social media feed, and his super PAC has created a X community focused on the topic.
Mr. Musk has also been drawing attention to the early-voting numbers in Pennsylvania, which have been a source of good news for Republicans. “Unless something very strange happens, Ds will have a blowout loss in PA,” Mr. Musk said Sunday. But given how much presidential activity there has been in the state, it is hard to attribute those numbers directly to Mr. Musk’s own organization, to say nothing of Tuesday’s results.
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