PHOENIX — In a surprise shift from previous elections, Arizona Republicans believe early-voting numbers could be the party’s key to success.
“Unless Democrats drastically change their [voting] behavior by Tuesday, I think we’re in a very good position to win at the top of the ticket,” Arizona GOP Chairwoman Gina Swoboda said while expressing confidence about the Senate race and other down-ballot contests.
More than 2.2 million Grand Canyon Staters opted to vote early, according to Uplift Data.
Republicans lead the Democrats’ early ballot returns by more 182,000 votes statewide as of Friday. Turnout is neck and neck, with 58.3% of the GOP and 57.4% of the Democrats. Independent turnout is sitting at just under 38% with more than 584,000 ballots returned.
The numbers paint an optimistic picture for Republicans, who narrowly lost key statewide races in 2022. Still, it’s hard to tell if these Arizonans are voting in line with their party and what races they’re voting in, regardless of party affiliation.
There are 1.56 million registered Republicans, 1.27 million registered Democrats, 1.47 million registered independents, and roughly 67,000 registered as another third party, per the Arizona secretary of state’s latest numbers. Those independent voters could ultimately decide the fate of various close races.
One’s ballot is private, but one’s affiliation and whether a person has voted is public record.
In an interview with The Post, Swoboda ran down her party’s outlook.
“The vast majority of the votes that we have banked are not ones we have cannibalized from our Election Day turnout,” Swoboda said.
The chairwoman said she’s noticing a significant number of low-propensity voters and those who did not vote in 2020 or 2022, including new voters, who are backing Republicans in the data she’s receiving.
“There is some percentage of them that were Election Day, but it’s not the majority of them. It’s not the large amount of them.”
“I still believe we have plenty of votes to come in,” she continued, adding her biggest concern is lines on Election Day with the length of the ballot.
Arizonans are tasked with a four-page ballot, as judicial-retention elections and numerous propositions are on the table. This takes time to fill out, and some suburbs expected to have higher Election Day turnout could leave voters waiting awhile.
Pack a lawn chair in your car, Swoboda quipped.
On the ground, there’s a shift among some Republicans to turn their skepticism of the electoral process into motivation, as people often gleefully raised their hands at events when asked by speakers if they’d already cast their ballot.
Trump rallies displayed large banners encouraging people to vote early, including at his recent Tempe rally, and the former president himself has suggested people do so. The Post has reported GOP Senate nominee Kari Lake — who voted early herself after past skepticism — has directly appealed to skeptical voters.
Democrats also bolstered their early-voting messaging in the Grand Canyon State, but the behavior of the party’s voters has naturally favored early and mail-in voting when compared with their Republican counterparts.
“But we gotta show up because they always show up, don’t they? But there’s more of us than them if we show up,” Bill Clinton said last week in Phoenix when campaigning for Vice President Kamala Harris, The Post reported.
For Arizonans still looking to vote, it is too late to mail their ballot in to be counted in time for the election. Instead, they’re encouraged to bring the ballot to a drop box or vote in person. Those voters can head to Arizona.Vote for assistance.
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