Pessimism pervades Kyiv and Washington about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as President Volodymr Zelensky tries to steer his country through the war’s third winter.
That assessment by intelligence officials, cited by The New York Times, follows Russian advances in the Donetsk region and concern about what the outcome of the U.S. election on Tuesday will mean for U.S. support for Kyiv.
It also comes ahead of Ukrainians enduring the cold months ahead with their energy infrastructure damaged by Moscow’s drone strikes which have intensified from 350 in July to 2,000 in October, according to Kyiv. Ukraine’s Sumy and Poltava regions were left without power last week after Russian airstrikes.
Oleksii Brekht, acting CEO of national grid operator Ukrenergo warned continuous massive shelling of the country’s infrastructure, transmission network and generation facilities, mean daily power consumption restrictions this winter could last up to eight hours.
“This upcoming winter is expected to be the most challenging for the Ukrainian civilian population since the Russia launched its invasion in 2022,” Viktor Kovalenko, a Ukrainian geopolitical analyst and military veteran (2014-2015) told Newsweek.
“The extent of the damage from Russian missile strikes to power plants is so severe that they cannot be repaired in the near future, and some may never be rebuilt,” he said.
“We should expect that life in some metropolitan areas like Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv could stop during the winter, with entire ghost towns, population displacements, hunger, and deaths from freezing temperatures,” Kovalenko said.
Adding to the chill is the shift on the battlefield from a stalemate only months ago to incremental Russian advances in the Donetsk region, albeit at a high cost for Moscow.
In Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow’s troops are said to have recaptured a sizable chunk of the territory Kyiv seized in its surprise August incursion, prompting one Ukrainian major to tell the New York Times, “the situation is tense.”
Russia’s offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk over a 30-40 mile wide front is bearing down on Pokrovsk, the logistics hub whose capture would boost Moscow’s aims of fully controlling the Donbas.
“It definitely affects morale what is happening in Donbas,” Simon Schlegel, senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group told Newsweek. “The tempo of Russian advances are greater than earlier this year or in 2023.
“It’s very clear that this time around it’s not as easy anymore for the Ukrainian leadership to just blame it on the slow pace of Western weapons and to ask for more weapons, especially with the very unpredictable outcome of the U.S. election.”
“It’s more of a combined problem now that Ukraine can’t muster enough people to fight at the front—as well as delayed deliveries of weapons,” he said. “It’s actually a problem of getting people to the front lines to use weapons that have arrived.”
U.S. election outcome
Former President Donald Trump‘s pledge to end the war quickly and unhappiness about continued U.S. support for Ukraine’s war effort has raised doubts about the flow of U.S. military aid after Americans go to the polls on Tuesday.
“Trump has said it very clearly that he thinks Ukraine is gone and has made Ukraine responsible for the start of the war and that he would want to resolve this very quickly,” said Schlegel, although it is unclear what Kamala Harris winning would mean.
“She hasn’t been very clear about whether she’s going to be continuing Joe Biden‘s very cautious course—which many people are very unhappy with—or whether she is going to be more courageous,” Schlegel added.
Zelensky went to the U.S. in September to promote his Victory Plan, which includes Kyiv’s long-stated request to use long-range missiles provided by the West on targets inside Russia, which is currently restricted by the U.S. and the U.K. for fear of escalation.
“I’m worried a lot, not just about the election but the fact that the current U.S. administration is imposing excessive limitations on the use of weapons,” said Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
“We’re not allowing the Ukrainians to use the systems they’re being given to their maximum capability,” he said. “That has implications for Ukrainian security and clearly the election could portend a dramatic change in support.”
Complicating Ukraine’s fight are North Korean troops joining Russia’s war effort, with Zelensky saying on Friday that thousands of them are near the Ukrainian border, although initial reports suggest they are inadequately trained and equipped.
The entry of Pyongyang into the conflict prompted Lithuania to demand its fellow NATO members drop prohibitions against long-range weapon use by Ukraine against Russia. Montgomery said that the contribution of up to 6 million rounds of North Korean ammunition is “a much bigger deal” adding, “I do think they (Ukraine) have a rough winter coming.”
However, to prepare for the cold months, European suppliers have ramped up electricity exports. Generators for schools, hospitals and emergency services have been set up and many Ukrainians are equipping their properties with alternative power sources.
“Putin’s Russia anticipates that Ukrainians, suffering from the cold, will demand peace with Russia on any terms,” Kovalenko said. This means that it is “crucial” for Zelensky “to continually remind his fellow citizens that the hardships and threats they face originate from Putin’s Russia, not their own government.”
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