Renowned Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, who accurately predicted Donald Trump‘s 2016 and 2020 wins in the Hawkeye State, now has Vice President Kamala Harris leading the former president.
Selzer found in a new poll published by The Des Moines Register on Saturday, mere days away from the November 5 election, that Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, took a three-point lead over Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.
Of the 808 likely voters polled from October 28 to 31, 47 percent said they would choose Harris if the election were held today, compared to 44 percent who said they would choose Trump. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer told The Des Moines Register. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Selzer has led The Des Moines Register‘s Iowa polls since 1987, first as Register staff, and then in 1997, she and her polling firm Selzer & Co. did the Iowa polls on a contract basis. She earned her undergraduate degree at the University of Kansas, her home state, and then went to graduate school at the University of Iowa.
When reached for comment by Newsweek on Sunday morning, the Trump campaign referred to a Truth Social post from the former president on Sunday that read: “No President has done more for FARMERS, and the Great State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT. I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME. THE JUST OUT EMERSON POLL HAS ME UP 10 POINTS IN IOWA. THANK YOU!”
On Saturday, Emerson College released a poll of 800 Iowa likely voters, 53 percent said they’d vote for Trump and 43 percent said they’d support Harris. The poll was conducted from November 1 to 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent.
Selzer, meanwhile, responded to Trump’s post in an email to Newsweek saying, “These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish. It’s the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers.”
Newsweek has also reached out to the Harris campaign via email for comment Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver, a leading pollster who founded poll aggregator 538, wrote on his blog Silver Bulletin that Selzer “has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right. In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status.”
Silver, who is no longer affiliated with 538, ranks Selzer & Co. as one of the top two pollsters in America. Meanwhile, 538 ranks the firm 12th on its list of 282 pollsters for its track record and methodology.
What Is Ann Selzer’s Polling Record?
Selzer accurately predicted Trump’s 2020 win over now-President Joe Biden in Iowa. In a poll conducted in late October of that year, Selzer showed Trump with a 7-point lead over Biden (48 to 41 percent). Trump won Iowa days later by 8.2 points (54.2 to 45 percent).
Selzer also predicted that Trump would win his first presidential election in 2016 against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 7 points. A poll that The Des Moines Register came out with three days before the election showed Trump with 46 percent of voter support and Clinton with 39 percent.
Trump beat Clinton in the Hawkeye State by 9.4 points (51.1 to 41.7 percent). He also won the presidency that year.
Selzer also predicted former President Barack Obama‘s 2012 win in Iowa. The final Des Moines Register poll had Obama 5 points ahead of his Republican opponent Mitt Romney (47 to 42 percent). Obama ended up taking Iowa by 5.6 points with 52.1 percent of the vote compared to Romney’s 46.5 percent.
Iowa Senate Races
Selzer also accurately predicted Iowa’s 2022, 2020 and 2014 Senate races.
Days before the 2022 election, The Des Moines Register released a poll with Senator Chuck Grassley ahead of his Democrat opponent Mike Franken by 12 points (53 to 41 percent). Grassley ended up winning by 12.2 points with 56.1 percent of the vote compared to Franken’s 43.9 percent.
In late October 2020, The Des Moines Register released polling data showing Senator Joni Ernst had a 4-point lead over her Democratic opponent Theresa Greenfield (46 to 42 percent). Ernst won her race by 6.6 points (51.8 to 45.2 percent).
Selzer also accurately predicted Ernst’s first U.S. Senate race in 2014. The Des Moines Register had Ernst 7 points ahead of her Democratic opponent Bruce Braley (51 to 44 percent) in its final poll ahead of the 2014 election. Ernst beat Braley by 8.5 points (52.2 to 43.7 percent).
Selzer Gets the 2018 Governor’s Race Wrong
The pollster didn’t correctly predict Iowa’s 2018 gubernatorial race between Governor Kim Reynolds and her Democrat opponent Fred Hubbell.
Days before the election, The Des Moines Register had Hubbell ahead of Reynolds by 2 points (46 to 44 percent). Reynolds, however, won by 2.8 points with 50.3 percent of the vote compared to Hubbell’s 47.5 percent.
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