Two days before Election Day, a new poll from the battleground state with the most Electoral College votes shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, pulling ahead of former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, though her lead remains within the margin of error.
Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in this year’s election, with Trump and Harris competing for its 19 crucial electoral votes. Both campaigns have made repeated appearances in the Keystone State, with Trump scheduled to campaign there Sunday morning and Harris set to hold a rally in Philadelphia the night before Election Day.
Whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania is likely to secure the presidency, with Harris’ clearest path to victory winning the three “blue wall” battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere, and Trump securing Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.
Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while President Joe Biden flipped it in 2020 against Trump. The race in the state is expected to be decided by a few thousand votes.
Most Pennsylvania polls show a narrow margin between the two presidential nominees, with leads fluctuating within the margin of error, making the state a toss-up.
The final pre-election Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of 460 likely voters, conducted from October 27 to 30 that was published on Sunday shows Harris with a two-point lead over Trump, 49 to 47 percent.
Harris’ lead, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points, marks a 1-point increase from a previous Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of 450 likely state voters conducted from September 16 and 19, which showed Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent. It also had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
In Sunday’s poll, 2 percent of respondents didn’t identify with either candidate, saying they were “still unsure.”
The poll reflects a gender and racial divide that has been expressed in other polls, with Harris favored by women, 53 percent to Trump’s 43 percent, and Trump leading among men, 52 percent to Harris’ 43 percent. White voters support Trump 54 percent to Harris’ 43 percent, and voters of color back Harris 66 percent to 27 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign for comment via email on Sunday morning.
What Do Other Pennsylvania Polls Show?
Other polls depict an extremely tight race in the state, with the latest New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of 1,527 likely Pennsylvania voters showing that there’s equal support among Trump and Harris at 48 percent. The poll, also published on Sunday, was conducted between October 24 and November 2. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
In 2020, a similar Times/Siena College poll of 1,862 likely Pennsylvania voters found then-Democratic nominee Biden leading Trump 49 to 43 percent. The poll was conducted between October 26 and 31, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. In the 2020 election, Biden received 50 percent of the vote and Trump 48.8 percent in the swing state.
As of Sunday, three polling aggregates—538, RealClearPolling, and Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin—all find Trump ahead in the state by 0.3 percentage points. The Times‘ aggregate polling finds Trump ahead 49 percent compared to Harris’ 48 percent, and The Hill’s aggregate polling shows him up 0.7 points, 48.8 to 48.1 percent.
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