Representative Lauren Boebert has lost some ground in her bid to retain Colorado’s 4th congressional district, according to the latest political analysis.
The Republican and fervent supporter of former president Donald Trump won the Centennial State’s third congressional district in 2022 by a wafer thin 546 votes. Following that victory, Boebert made the switch to run in the neighboring 4th district, where she aims to fill the seat left empty by Republican representative Ken Buck, who retired this year.
The district is the most Republican in the state, according to a Cook Partisan Voting Index last year, which graded it R+13, compared with the 3rd District’s R+7 rating. The last time a Democrat won in the 4th district was Betsy Markey in 2008.
While polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight and The Hill suggest that Boebert is favored to win and she enjoys the endorsement of Trump, it appears her fortunes have dipped in the days before voters go the polls, according to the Cook Political Report.
On Friday, the nonpartisan analyst firm moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.” Boebert still has a small lead, although The New Republic reported “that seems to be mostly thanks to the heavily Republican makeup of the district, rather than any tactful campaigning by Boebert.”
Newsweek has contacted Boebert’s team for comment.
Boebert’s Democratic opponent is Trisha Calvarese, a former speechwriter for the National Science Foundation. Calvarese said that Boebert had “melted down” during a debate in September between the pair where the Republican was challenged on votes against veterans’ benefits.
Calvarese posted on X that Boebert was left “floundering to try to defend her disgraceful record on Veterans,” adding that she had “no explanation as to why she missed crucial house votes.”
Calvarese was boosted by news that she had raised more than half a million dollars in the first half of October, according to OpenSecrets. Her filing on October 16 showed that her campaign fundraising total had increased that month by $560,000, to $3.74 million.
This is behind Boebert, whose filing on the same day showed the Republican as having raised $4.48 million.
Boebert garnered headlines for an incident in September 2023 when she was removed from a performance of the Beetlejuice musical in Denver for vaping and being too loud during the show, in which video showed her and the man she was with fondling each other.
The race in Colorado’s 4th district comes as Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House of Representatives in which the GOP is defending a narrow eight-seat majority.
As of Saturday, there are 22 toss-up races across the country, according to the Cook Political Report. Ten of those seats are held by Democrats and 14 by Republicans.
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