As the U.S. presidential race winds down, U.S. intelligence officials are settling on a final assessment: Russia badly wants former President Donald Trump to win, while China remains fairly agnostic on whether Trump or his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, would further Beijing’s interests.
Those calculations reflect the kinds of influence tactics each of America’s rivals is deploying as well as clear geopolitical realities, intelligence officials say. While Trump has shown high regard for Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggested he would try to resolve the Ukraine war in Putin’s favor, neither Trump nor Harris has laid out a clear policy toward China other than to continue the tensions and tariffs already in place.
As the U.S. presidential race winds down, U.S. intelligence officials are settling on a final assessment: Russia badly wants former President Donald Trump to win, while China remains fairly agnostic on whether Trump or his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, would further Beijing’s interests.
Those calculations reflect the kinds of influence tactics each of America’s rivals is deploying as well as clear geopolitical realities, intelligence officials say. While Trump has shown high regard for Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggested he would try to resolve the Ukraine war in Putin’s favor, neither Trump nor Harris has laid out a clear policy toward China other than to continue the tensions and tariffs already in place.
Trump has threatened even more tariffs but may prove to be less threatening over the issue of Taiwan than Harris’s boss, President Joe Biden, has been, so Beijing may consider the outcome a wash. “China doesn’t see any upside in supporting or denigrating any presidential candidate,” one intelligence official said. “So they are a little more thoughtful about taking risks.”
China has adopted a cautious strategy that mainly seeks to defeat congressional candidates who have taken a tough stand against Beijing’s goal of controlling Taiwan. “China is seeking to influence congressional races regardless of party affiliation,” Jen Easterly, the director of the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), said in an interview.
Russia, on the other hand, is targeting swing states to tilt the balance toward Trump, including Pennsylvania and Georgia.
On Friday, CISA, the FBI, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence announced that “Russian influence actors manufactured a recent video that falsely depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia.” The joint statement also said Russian operatives had “manufactured a video falsely accusing an individual associated with the Democratic presidential ticket of taking a bribe from a U.S. entertainer.”
This post is part of FP’s live coverage with global updates and analysis throughout the U.S. election. Follow along here.
The post What Russia and China Want Out of Tuesday’s Election appeared first on Foreign Policy.
