A look back at Brazil’s general election in October 2022 reveals just how precariously the world’s fifth-largest democracy stood on the brink of political turmoil. Throughout the race, then-President Jair Bolsonaro spread unfounded claims of election fraud and disseminated disinformation aimed at galvanizing his most extreme supporters. But while Bolsonaro’s rhetoric echoed that of former U.S. President Donald Trump, his strong support among the armed forces and the military police—who harbor antidemocratic sympathies—presented a unique threat. Several generals embraced Bolsonaro’s conspiracy theories and promoted the idea that they should play a role in signing off on the election result—a proposal that was clearly unconstitutional.
After Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated Bolsonaro, highway blockades by Bolsonaro supporters were erected in several parts of the country as the defeated president refused to concede. Numerous analysts warned of impending political violence akin to the Jan. 6, 2021, riots in the United States, as thousands of Bolsonaro’s followers gathered outside military barracks in Brasília and other cities calling for a military coup. On Jan. 8, 2023, a week after Lula’s inauguration, rioters stormed the presidential palace, Congress, and the Supreme Court in a striking parallel to the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol. Evidence suggests the Brazilian military played a dubious role in the Jan. 8 riots, with several high-ranking officials accused of either tacitly supporting or directly facilitating the attack. U.S. diplomatic pressure—involving the White House, the State Department, and the Defense Department—is believed to have been crucial in deterring Brazil’s armed forces from supporting a coup.
A look back at Brazil’s general election in October 2022 reveals just how precariously the world’s fifth-largest democracy stood on the brink of political turmoil. Throughout the race, then-President Jair Bolsonaro spread unfounded claims of election fraud and disseminated disinformation aimed at galvanizing his most extreme supporters. But while Bolsonaro’s rhetoric echoed that of former U.S. President Donald Trump, his strong support among the armed forces and the military police—who harbor antidemocratic sympathies—presented a unique threat. Several generals embraced Bolsonaro’s conspiracy theories and promoted the idea that they should play a role in signing off on the election result—a proposal that was clearly unconstitutional.
After Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated Bolsonaro, highway blockades by Bolsonaro supporters were erected in several parts of the country as the defeated president refused to concede. Numerous analysts warned of impending political violence akin to the Jan. 6, 2021, riots in the United States, as thousands of Bolsonaro’s followers gathered outside military barracks in Brasília and other cities calling for a military coup. On Jan. 8, 2023, a week after Lula’s inauguration, rioters stormed the presidential palace, Congress, and the Supreme Court in a striking parallel to the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol. Evidence suggests the Brazilian military played a dubious role in the Jan. 8 riots, with several high-ranking officials accused of either tacitly supporting or directly facilitating the attack. U.S. diplomatic pressure—involving the White House, the State Department, and the Defense Department—is believed to have been crucial in deterring Brazil’s armed forces from supporting a coup.
Remarkably, however, Brazil’s national political environment appeared to have returned to normal less than six months later. Although polarization remains entrenched and political violence during recent municipal elections was high, the overall political climate has improved considerably, with the political debates on social media and leaders’ rhetoric decidedly less frenzied than back in 2022. How did Brazil pull back from the brink?
1. Rapid and transparent election results
A crucial factor in containing unrest was the swift and transparent reporting of election results. Ballots are electronic, and Brazil’s electoral justice system ensured that the final results were announced within a few hours after voting booths closed on election night, massively reducing the window for misinformation to take hold. While fake news continued to spread, Bolsonaro party officials were invited to inspect the electronic voting system ahead of the elections, so accusations of electoral fraud rang hollow.
2. Accountability and decisive legal action
Brazil’s electoral court acted swiftly to hold Bolsonaro accountable for his role in undermining public trust in the electoral system, barring him from running for public office until 2030. The case focused on a July 18, 2022, meeting where the president used public resources to tell a large group of foreign ambassadors that Brazil’s electronic voting system was rigged. This punishment not only removed the country’s most polarizing figure from the political landscape but also deprived the far-right movement of clear leadership, as Bolsonaro failed to groom a successor.
3. Combating disinformation with aggressive measures
Brazilian authorities, led by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, adopted a proactive stance against disinformation, temporarily blocking social media accounts that spread false claims about the election. Even influential figures faced censorship if they undermined public trust in democratic institutions. Social media companies were ordered to remove thousands of posts, sometimes with limited opportunity for appeal. Moraes’s aggressive tactics sparked controversy, with critics—particularly Bolsonaro supporters—accusing him of authoritarianism and undermining free speech. While the jury is still out regarding the long-term consequences of this unusual approach, these measures did prove effective in preventing coordinated disinformation campaigns from eroding trust in the election outcome.
4. Personal leadership to overcome extreme polarization
Leading political figures seem to have sensed, after the Jan. 8 riots, that voters were getting tired of extreme polarization. That is perhaps best symbolized by the cordial relationship between Brazil’s two most powerful men—President Lula and São Paulo Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas, a right-wing former military officer and Bolsonaro protégé, who might challenge Lula in the 2026 election. Lula and Tarcísio, how the governor is publicly known, have appeared together onstage on several occasions, and both have signaled their desire to overcome the toxicity that had become the hallmark of Brazilian politics for the past decade.
5. A political system that favors finding a common denominator—but at a cost
Brazil’s political system—known as coalitional presidentialism—requires all presidents, even those elected by a wide margin, to construct broad and often unwieldy coalitions in Congress. These coalitions frequently include ideologically diverse and even antagonistic parties, making it nearly impossible for any single political agenda to dominate unilaterally. While maintaining these coalitions often involves complex negotiations, patronage, pork-barrel spending, and incentivizes corruption, this system has the potential to temper polarization.
One key factor is the relatively low level of party discipline within Brazilian politics: members of Congress are not strictly bound by party lines, which allows for pragmatic alliances across ideological divides. A striking example of this flexibility can be seen in the fact that numerous Congress members elected under Bolsonaro’s party frequently support Lula’s coalition. By forcing competing interests to negotiate and cooperate, Brazil’s political system serves as a moderating force, limiting the emergence of extreme polarization that is often seen in more rigid, two-party systems.
Truth be told, the return to normalcy on the federal and state level is contrasted by a recent spike in political violence. In the first half of 2024 alone, Brazil recorded 187 episodes of political violence, including 43 murders of politicians and their family members. The recent municipal elections saw at least 88 physical attacks on candidates or politicians. Yet these generally have little to do with polarization on the national level, and they rarely involve high-profile politicians.
6. Civil society and the media actively sought to reduce the risk of political violence
In the run-up to the 2022 general election, various actors from civil society and the media played a critical role in reducing the risk of political violence by actively promoting nonviolence, dialogue, and respect for democratic institutions. Civic organizations, religious leaders, business associations, and prominent nongovernmental organizations launched campaigns urging peaceful political engagement and rejecting any form of violence or intimidation. One notable example was the Coalizão pela Democracia (Coalition for Democracy), a broad alliance of civil society groups that publicly emphasized the importance of respecting the electoral process and peacefully accepting its outcomes. Religious figures across denominations, from Catholic bishops to evangelical leaders, also issued calls for calm and moderation, urging their followers to avoid divisive rhetoric and refrain from participating in confrontational actions.
The media, particularly major outlets such as O Globo, Folha de S. Paulo, and O Estado de S. Paulo, contributed by closely monitoring and debunking disinformation that could incite unrest. Through investigative journalism, they highlighted attempts to discredit the electronic voting system and revealed plots that sought to undermine public trust in the electoral process. Fact-checking initiatives like Agência Lupa and Aos Fatos partnered with social media platforms to counter viral falsehoods, ensuring voters had access to accurate information.
Business leaders and industry associations also issued statements advocating for stability and reinforcing that political differences should be resolved through dialogue rather than violence. Public figures, including artists and intellectuals, organized events and campaigns under the banner of democracy, urging voters to respect the results regardless of personal preferences. These efforts culminated in high-profile initiatives such as a letter in defense of democracy that was signed by more than a million citizens, including prominent figures from academia, culture, and the judiciary.
Together, these actors—through advocacy, information campaigns, and public appeals—helped create a social climate where violence became less acceptable as a political tool. Their efforts not only promoted respect for the electoral process but also fostered a sense of collective responsibility for maintaining peace, reducing the likelihood of large-scale unrest despite the tense political atmosphere. Quick and transparent results, holding political actors accountable, curbing disinformation, and fostering cross-party collaboration are tools that any democracy can use to defuse tensions.
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