A stunning electoral defeat for Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party has ushered in a new era of instability just at a time when the world needed it least.
In an Oct. 27 snap election called by the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its religious-backed coalition party, Komeito, saw deep losses and failed to secure a majority of seats in the lower house of Parliament, wiping out a previously comfortable majority. The LDP secured 191 seats, down 23 percent from the previous legislature. Komeito, which is backed by the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, saw an equally dismal outcome, falling 25 percent to just 24 seats. To add insult to injury, the leader of Komeito failed to win his own seat.
A stunning electoral defeat for Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party has ushered in a new era of instability just at a time when the world needed it least.
In an Oct. 27 snap election called by the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its religious-backed coalition party, Komeito, saw deep losses and failed to secure a majority of seats in the lower house of Parliament, wiping out a previously comfortable majority. The LDP secured 191 seats, down 23 percent from the previous legislature. Komeito, which is backed by the Buddhist group Soka Gakkai, saw an equally dismal outcome, falling 25 percent to just 24 seats. To add insult to injury, the leader of Komeito failed to win his own seat.
The outcome is particularly bitter for Ishiba, a well-known political figure for the past 20 years who has held influential posts, including as farm and fisheries minister and defense minister. He was finally elected as head of the LDP in late September, after his fifth try in 16 years.
Ishiba’s selection in a party vote came after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, was pushed out over a drawn-out political scandal involving improper fundraising by LDP lawmakers.
The scandal was typically Japanese in that it involved questionable practices and relatively small amounts of money that would be business as usual in many other countries, particularly the United States. In this case, an LDP investigation found that 85 lawmakers had failed to report fundraising of 580 million yen (around $3.8 million) over a four-year period, mainly from ticket sales to fundraising parties.
Such scandals are hardly new in a country where byzantine regulations mean that almost everyone is guilty of something. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe survived a number of similar scandals while in office and went on to be Japan’s longest-serving prime minister.
After leaving office, Abe was tragically killed in 2022 by a disgruntled loner irate with the LDP’s long-running ties with the Unification Church. While there was widespread outrage over the killing, public opinion started to side with the gunman’s complaints, forcing the LDP to launch another investigation and renounce its ties with the church.
After waiting so long, Ishiba may not be around for long. Replacing him as party leader within the 30 days before the lower house must elect a new prime minister would be logistically difficult, but it will be expected for him to take the fall for the dismal showing. Meanwhile, backroom negotiations have begun with the smaller parties that would hold the balance of power for either the LDP or the chief opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
The LDP has proposed a parliamentary session on Nov. 11, at which point a new prime minister would be selected. If no one gets a majority, then a second round gives the job to the largest vote-getter, raising the prospect of a weakened minority government. The stability of such an administration would be difficult to maintain.
As is usually the case in Japanese politics, there are few ideological differences between the two parties. The CDP has come out in favor of allowing women to keep their own surnames after marriage—an issue where the LDP has no clear policy—and has proposed measures to help reduce wealth disparity while still trying to rein in Japan’s massive government debt, now around 260 percent of annual GDP, the highest among any major economy in the world.
The CDP saw its haul climb an impressive 51 percent, reaching 148 seats. That is still well behind the LDP-Komeito coalition at 215, but within striking distance of a majority. The CDP is led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, one of the few non-LDP Japanese leaders still active in politics. Considered a steady pair of hands as finance minister and then prime minister, he would be expected to pursue many of the same policies as the LDP, especially in the area of foreign affairs.
But the bigger worry in all this is that the jockeying for power, attempted coalition tie-ups, and personal rivalries will leave Japan largely vacant from the global stage just when its presence would be highly useful.
Moving away from its focus on pacifism after World War II and a general foreign policy that counseled reconciliation and negotiation for virtually every international issue, Japan has today become a front-line state in countering the growing coalition of its neighbors—China, Russia, and North Korea.
Despite the lack an official army, navy, or air force, Tokyo’s defense buildup had been quietly taking place ever since the first force was created in 1950 under the innocuous name of the “National Police Reserve.” The pace quickened in the Abe years from 2012 to 2020 and was further driven by the recently ousted Kishida, who vowed to roughly double defense spending to the NATO member threshold of 2 percent of GDP over a decade, although it’s not clear how this would be financed. Japan’s military force is considered one of the most capable in the world, usually ranking among the top 10.
Japan has also become a coalition builder, forming defense ties with a wide range of countries beyond its strategic alliance with the United States. (Japanese like to note that the U.S.-Japan defense cooperation is often touted one of the most extensive anywhere in the world.)
Today, Japan has forged defense relationships with a host of countries. These include not only Southeast Asian nations warily eyeing China’s steady march toward control of the South China Sea, but also farther flung allies such as Britain, France, and Italy. Japan even tried to promote the idea of a NATO office in Tokyo before the idea was quashed by a reluctant France.
Japan has also been taking a stronger line in its foreign-policy pronouncements, dropping much of its historical reticence. Kishida was quick to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and quickly invoked sanctions. “It is a clear violation of international law, infringing Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is totally unacceptable as an act that shakes the foundation of the international order,” he said at the time.
He would later make clear why Japan was concerned, telling reporters during a trip to Washington in 2023 that “Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow,” a clear reference to concerns that China may take a cue from Moscow and go ahead with the so-called reunification of China and Taiwan.
This support for Ukraine—and the growing concerns about similar aggression in Asia—are unlikely to change whoever takes the helm. The risk is that a coalition prime minister will have plenty of domestic issues to focus on, said Corey Wallace, a Japan foreign-policy specialist at Kanagawa University in Yokohama, Japan.
“The Japan prime minister will have their plate very full, so that they may not have the bandwidth to initiate leadership on international issues,” Wallace said.
One concern for Japan would be how to deal with a possible return of Donald Trump as U.S. president. The country was among the few allies to avoid a dustup with Trump during his first term, with credit largely given to Abe for becoming an accomplished “Trump whisperer.” Through a combination of flattery and golf, Abe was able to keep on the good side of the mercurial Trump, something that Ishiba seems ill-placed to achieve.
“I don’t think Ishiba has the skills nor the interest to get on Trump’s good side,” Wallace said.
The fledgling leader has already raised eyebrows with some harsh statements about Japan’s foreign and defense policies. He said during the run-up to the LDP leadership race that he wanted to rework the U.S.-Japan security relationship—an area that Kishida and Abe had worked hard to bolster—suggesting that it needed to be more equal in nature. He also proposed an Asian version of NATO to counter China. Faced with questions about how this would all work, Ishiba later backtracked, saying these were long-range ideas.
“Ishiba seems quite naïve. He must have known the issues given that he is said to be a defense expert,” said Sadaaki Numata, a former Japanese diplomat, adding that the ideas carried a whole host of issues for Japan, especially in the area of nuclear arms. “When Abe and Ishiba talk about concepts such as nuclear sharing, did they really have a clear idea of what they would need to be ready to decide in terms of the use of nuclear weapons? Japanese leaders, policymakers, and the populace need to heighten their nuclear IQ.”
With the political machinations underway, such discussions are likely to be put off to the future. But how far into the future will depend largely on how far Russia, North Korea, and China decide to take their own alliance. The dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia represents yet another escalation in tensions. Japan—whoever its prime minister is—will likely need to be ready sooner rather than later.
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