New polls show Donald Trump has a chance to flip three states Joe Biden won narrowly in 2020.
If that scenario comes to pass, the Republican nominee could have 255 electoral votes, meaning he’d be able to win the presidency by wresting one more swing state from Kamala Harris’ grasp.
In Pennsylvania, per a CBS-YouGov survey of 1,273 registered voters, Trump and Harris are knotted at 49% each, with the vice president ahead 50% to 46% with independents. (But 12% of independents not leaning Trump say they could vote for him still, while 4% of non-Harris indy voters say the same.)
Voters say they’re locked into their choices: 95% of Harris supporters rule out changing their mind between now and Election Day, and 94% of those backing the former president swear they won’t dump Trump.
Issues playing strongly into Trump’s favor include the economy, considered “major” for 81% of those polled, and inflation, a principal preoccupation for 74% of respondents.
Only 35% of those polled say the economy is at least “fairly good” — 62% say it’s “fairly bad” or worse.
Among independents, the split is even more pronounced: 31% positive, 65% negative.
A plurality of voters (46%) say Trump’s policies would make them “better off” financially, with 39% saying they’d be worse off. In contrast, Harris is upside down: 26% say they’d be better off under Kamalanomics, while 45% worry they’d be doing worse.
While CBS sees a dead heat in Pennsylvania, which Biden won by 1.17 points four years ago, CNN’s latest polling predicts a hair-thin split of two southwestern battlegrounds.
In the race for 11 electoral votes in Arizona, its survey predicts Harris winning 48% to 47%, which is a seismic shift from the 49% to 44% lead Trump had last time it was in the field back in August — but it’s still a margin-of-error contest.
In Nevada, it’s the opposite. A previous 1-point lead for Harris has flipped in CNN’s modeling to a single-digit advantage for The Donald, which would put a half-dozen electoral votes in his column if it holds.
In both states, just 8% say they’re willing to change their minds. But their motivations differ based on who they’re supporting.
A constant across both battlegrounds: Trump voters are balloting for their man, while many Harris backers are casting a protest vote. Whereas 82% of Trumpers in Nevada and 77% of those in Arizona say their vote is one expressly for Trump, only 62% of Harris voters in Arizona and 57% of those in Nevada say the same.
Back in 2020, Biden won by more than 3 points in Nevada and 0.3 in Arizona. This time around, both look to be flippable into the GOP column.
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