The “world’s most accurate economist” is predicting an Election Day victory for former President Trump, with Republicans also predicted to take back control of Congress in a “clean sweep.”
Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also said U.S. growth would accelerate after the election.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” he wrote on X.
Barraud, 38, has been ranked the best economic forecaster for the U.S. economy by Bloomberg every year since 2012.
Despite his prediction of economic growth, Barraud warned that if Vice President Kamala Harris gets elected with a split Congress, yields could drop because the market has already been priced in a Republican win. It would correct down, he added.
If Trump wins with Congress split between parties, his ability to cut taxes for corporations and households could be stalled, Barraud told Business Insider. Trump would therefore focus on tariffs, which could hurt global growth, he said.
The most likely outcome, according to Barraud, is a Republican sweep of Congress.
If Trump gains a Republican majority, he could implement tax cuts for corporations and households and focus more on his domestic agenda rather than foreign policy.
In the short term, it would create a GDP boost in 2025 between 2.1% and 2.3%, he said. The risk with Trump, Barraud said, is that if he cuts taxes without a way to pay for it, it could increase the deficit.
The 10-year Treasury Bond yield would initially jump to 4.5%, up from about 4.23%, under Trump. From there, he believes it will tick up to about 5% if there is a Republican sweep.
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