The political dominance of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party has been remarkable.
Despite incessant internal jockeying that has often led to a revolving door of leaders (a problem that remains), the party has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, staunchly adhering to an alliance with the United States that has ensured peace, security, some of the highest living standards in world history and perhaps our most precious commodity: Stability.
But elections on Sunday — in which Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lost the majority in the lower house of parliament previously held by the L.D.P. and its coalition partner Komeito — make clear that Japan’s prized political stability is no more. The Liberal Democrats, the country’s indispensable political force for so long, is losing its way. It is in disarray and weakened by scandals that have contributed to growing public disgust with the status quo.
All of this is happening as Japan faces some of its biggest challenges in decades. The economy, which has alternated between anemic growth and recession for many years, slipped back into recession late last year and barely grew in the most recent quarter. The yen hit a nearly four-decade low this summer. It remains unclear how Japan can continue to pay for the spiraling long-term social welfare needs of its rapidly aging population while also following through on plans to raise military spending to meet the growing threat posed by China and nuclear-armed dictatorships like North Korea and Russia.
These are generational challenges that will require tough choices — and strong and steady leadership. But the L.D.P.’s grip, and its ability to inspire the Japanese public, have been weakening since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stepped down in 2020 because of declining health. Mr. Abe, who was assassinated two years ago, spent nearly nine years in power, the most of any leader since the establishment of Japan’s first cabinet in 1885. While not everyone agreed with his policies, Mr. Abe brought a sense of purpose and a desire to make Japan a strong country that its people could be proud of.
But the party’s image has declined due in part to a series of self-inflicted wounds. These include revelations that many prominent L.D.P. figures had ties to the Unification Church, a fringe religious organization founded in South Korea, and accusations that a number of L.D.P. politicians were involved in a fund-raising scandal. Polls have shown sharply declining public satisfaction not only with the Liberal Democrats, but with Japanese democracy itself.
In the four years since Mr. Abe’s departure, the party leadership’s revolving door has begun swinging again. Japan has had three prime ministers, the latest being Mr. Ishiba. A former defense and agriculture minister, he was installed as prime minister on Oct. 1 only because his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down after his tepid response to the fund-raising scandal caused his approval ratings to tank.
Mr. Ishiba had called Sunday’s snap election in an attempt to quickly shore up support for his government. But those plans are in ruins. The party will now be forced to seek the support of some opposition members. It may only be a matter of time before Mr. Ishiba is also replaced as party leader.
This is no time for political instability.
President Xi Jinping of China is projecting military power around the Senkaku Islands — claimed by both Japan and China — as well as Taiwan and in the South China Sea. A conflict between China and the United States could inadvertently drag in Japan — America’s most important ally in the region and home to many U.S. military bases.
Strengthening the joint deterrence capabilities of Japan and the United States is essential to keeping China in check. Mr. Abe took the first steps toward this. He aligned Japan even more closely to the United States, revamped the country’s military doctrine to allow its forces to engage in potential combat missions with U.S. forces, raised military spending and tried unsuccessfully to amend the postwar Japanese constitution that renounces war and bans the country from possessing the means to wage it.
Amending the constitution will be crucial in freeing up Japan to develop the military power it needs to protect itself, but it requires a supermajority of more than two-thirds of both the lower and upper houses and must pass a public referendum. Although polls have shown that public support for a stronger military has grown, even Mr. Abe fell short of achieving constitutional change in a country where an aversion to militarism still runs deep.
How Japan will even pay for the high cost of building up its military remains unknown. The country already faces a long-term budgetary crisis. Around one-quarter of the budget is consumed by servicing the country’s huge national debt. An even larger share — about one-third — is spent on pensions, health care and the other social welfare needs of Japan’s aging population, the costs of which have grown at a much faster rate than the overall economy.
Japan is headed for an intergenerational conflict over whether to allocate resources to elderly care, to defense or to the sort of longer-term investments in science, technology and education necessary to make the economy more competitive and productive. The only way to meet these competing demands for resources is to grow the economic pie itself. But shaking Japan’s economy out of its long-term slumber is something that has eluded leaders for decades.
Japan’s population, however, is not only aging, it is shrinking. In recent years, the government has worked to raise female employment rates, encourage the re-employment of senior citizens and let in some overseas workers. But there are quantitative limits to the first two. And opening the country up to increased immigration is politically and culturally fraught. Real economic growth will depend on whether corporate Japan is confident enough in the nation’s political future to invest more at home — and right now there is little reason to feel that way.
The L.D.P.’s decline might seem to offer the chance for other parties to step up and bring needed change. But most voters still do not see Japan’s opposition as a viable alternative. They remember the last time another party besides the Liberal Democrats held power: From 2009 to 2012, when the Democratic Party of Japan struggled to govern, especially after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant meltdown crises.
Japan is entering an uncertain new era that will decide what kind of nation it will be and whether it can help its longtime ally, the United States, safeguard the rules-based international order in Asia. The country’s most important political party is faltering just when it is most needed.
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