The jury remains out on the verdict of the American electorate. While historians are virtually omniscient at predicting the past, we are not much better than most observers at predicting the future.
Two predictions are, however, reasonably obvious: first, that Donald Trump will struggle to accept the verdict if he loses; second, that Kamala Harris will almost certainly win the popular vote, but could lose the election because of that strange American contraption called the Electoral College.
More broadly, a longstanding American dilemma is on the ballot. Are a majority of American voters prepared to accept and even embrace the fact that we are a multiracial society — in effect, that Martin Luther King Jr.’s dream has become reality? Ms. Harris’s supporters are betting that we are. Mr. Trump’s supporters are betting that we are not.
The founding fathers did not think about the popular vote and electoral college vote the way we do. Yet that disjunction looms over this election.
There is also a gender dimension to our American dilemma that further complicates the outcome. Do we fully and finally believe the last six words of the Pledge of Allegiance to the flag, “with liberty and justice for all”? Even more than Barack Obama, Ms. Harris puts that question to the acid test. And polls will not provide a reliable answer, because many white and Black men will not reveal their deeper motives, even to themselves. Namely, that they cannot vote for a woman.
As we prepare to celebrate the 250th anniversary of American independence, the idea of human equality pronounced at the American founding will be front and center. We will be bombarded with Jefferson’s lyrical tribute to human equality. But we will also hear about the reality of racial and gender prejudice embraced by several prominent founders and the vast majority of American citizenry over which they presided.
A discernible shift on the latter score did not occur until the middle decades of the 20th century. So the historical record cuts in both directions. The Trump constituency has the bulk of American history on its side. Ms. Harris has the ideal declared at the founding, recent American history, and the demographically projected future on her side.
In that sense, then, the polls have it right. It’s going to be close. A few thousand voters may decide not just who wins the election, but also whether we are, at long last, ready to live up to the ideals of the American founding.
If Mr. Trump is president on July 4, 2026, the celebration will become a eulogy, for we will be honoring the corpse of the American republic.
The post Joseph J. Ellis: The Ideals of the Founders Are on the Ballot appeared first on New York Times.
