The feared Israel-Hezbollah war is happening, but it is remarkably one-sided so far. In September, Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies. It then commenced large-scale bombing of over 1,000 targets in Lebanon and stepped up its military campaign against Hezbollah leaders, culminating in the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli forces have also crossed into Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure, and pushing its fighters away from the border.
Hezbollah has fought back. The militant group has launched drone attacks into Israel, including one on an Israeli military base that killed four people and another on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s holiday home in Caesarea. Along the border, its fighters have reportedly killed over 20 Israelis in October so far. The group has also launched thousands of rockets and missiles on Israel in recent weeks.
The feared Israel-Hezbollah war is happening, but it is remarkably one-sided so far. In September, Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies. It then commenced large-scale bombing of over 1,000 targets in Lebanon and stepped up its military campaign against Hezbollah leaders, culminating in the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli forces have also crossed into Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure, and pushing its fighters away from the border.
Hezbollah has fought back. The militant group has launched drone attacks into Israel, including one on an Israeli military base that killed four people and another on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s holiday home in Caesarea. Along the border, its fighters have reportedly killed over 20 Israelis in October so far. The group has also launched thousands of rockets and missiles on Israel in recent weeks.
Yet all this activity appears anemic compared with Israel’s devastation of Hezbollah’s leadership, rank-and-file fighters, and military infrastructure. Hezbollah had around 40,000-50,000 fighters going into the war. Even more daunting, before Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah had accumulated a massive arsenal of over 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision systems. The sheer size of Hezbollah’s arsenal was supposed to allow the group to overwhelm Israel’s vaunted missile defense system. This arsenal was meant to serve as a deterrent to exactly the type of Israeli campaign that has been occurring in the last few months. Making this potent threat worse, Hezbollah works closely with Iran, and a massive attack on the group risked increasing Iran’s military role in the conflict.
Israel, of course, was not deterred. For now, at least, its leaders have been correct that they could hit Hezbollah hard with only a limited response. But why hasn’t Hezbollah been able to use its arsenal effectively and otherwise respond to the Israeli attacks?
Although Hezbollah fighters are highly skilled, they have avoided large-scale clashes with Israeli soldiers. They are outgunned by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who are well-trained and can draw on impressive surveillance and reconnaissance. When fighting in prepared defensive positions or as guerrillas on terrain in southern Lebanon that they know well, Hezbollah fighters can be formidable. However, unless they have the element of surprise, they are not eager to go directly against Israeli forces.
The limited Iranian response is also not terribly surprising. Iran suffers from “the tyranny of distance,” as one Middle East security expert noted, making it hard for it to directly engage Israel. In two broad airstrikes on Israel in recent months, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones but did little damage.
The limited nature of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket attacks, however, is more surprising. According to our analysis, which draws on information from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, Hezbollah has launched an average of around 60-100 rockets a day between Sept. 1 and Oct. 18, with the maximum being around 300 rockets. This is a conservative estimate. Drones come in much smaller pacts than those of rockets, with an estimated 1-8 drones being launched daily.
These are big numbers, but they are only a fraction of Hezbollah’s arsenal. Although some attacks get through, Israel’s air defenses have been able to handle most of them. In addition, Hezbollah is primarily striking northern Israel and is not targeting the entire country.
It is possible that Hezbollah is simply holding back, whether it’s because of concerns about further Israeli escalation, or to preserve capacity in case things heat up further with Iran, or for other reasons. In particular, Lebanon was suffering from political paralysis and economic decline before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, and Hezbollah does not want to be blamed for making things worse.
However, the more likely explanation is Hezbollah’s lack of capacity. Israel appears to have neutralized Hezbollah’s massive arsenal through devastating attacks on its leaders, as well as thoroughly penetrating the group’s communications. As a result, it is hard for Hezbollah to coordinate a response or adjust to fast-changing circumstances. In addition, Lebanon’s skies are abuzz with Israeli drones and other surveillance and strike assets, which have targeted Hezbollah launchers in near-real time. Many of Hezbollah’s launchers, as well as large parts of its arsenal, are regularly targeted—U.S. and Israeli officials claim half are destroyed. As a result, Hezbollah has not been able to launch large salvos.
Hezbollah still might get its act together, and given its past resilience, it would be foolish to count it out. Nevertheless, Israel’s intelligence and military forces have achieved important tactical successes that, for now, have made the conflict far more one-sided.
The post Where Is the Massive Hezbollah Response to Israel’s Attacks? appeared first on Foreign Policy.
