Both and are following a trend in the well known by Africans. Neither candidate has made US-Africa relations a hot-button election issue.
Neither Trump nor paid much attention to Africa during their presidencies — and neither of them visited the continent while in office.
Cameron Hudson from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, told DW that both Democrats and Republicans pursue an Africa program that “doesn’t differ much one from the other. Africa doesn’t rank very highly in the list of US priorities.”
Moving from aid to trade
Both administrations acknowledge Africa’s importance to a certain degree, Hudson told DW.
“It is the largest voting bloc at the United Nations, and when we cannot organize the Africans to vote in line with us, that undermines US interests and US prestige in the world,” he added, noting that economic interests, such as access to Africa’s prescious minerals, also play a role.
Pushing has been a great motivation for the US, said Hudson.
“Efforts by China to establish military bases or to obtain a monopoly over certain mineral resources in Africa will be seen as something that needs to be responded to very aggressively by whoever is in the White House,” Hudson told DW.
“And I think that will drive many of our policies in Africa.”
Though the US remains Africa’s largest aid donor, , with bilateral trade surpassing $166.6 billion (around €155 billion) in the first half of 2024, according to Chinese state media.
“The US has been relegated in matters of economic development in Africa,” Kenyan political analyst Brian Singoro Wanyama told DW. “It has been easier for African countries to go and get aid from the East.”
In response, Trump had introduced “Prosper Africa,” an initiative to support US investors and the growing middle class across Africa, and to compete with , a massive infrastructure plan that aims to smooth trade links with dozens of countries.
US troop levels in Africa had fallen from just over 5,000 troops in 2017 to around 1,300 by the end of Trump’s term.
If reelected, Trump has vowed to continue with the and cut foreign aid.
AGOA: Carrot-and-stick policy
For any president, the next big task would be to renew the — a program that provides eligible countries in the region with tarrif-free access to US markets — which expires at the end of 2025 and runs under the motto “trade, not aid.”
Also, the Biden administration , “for undemocratic behavior. In the case of ,” Hudson explained.
South Africa risked suspension from AGOA for partnering with and on security.
Hudson suggested that both Republicans and the Democrats are “guilty” of punishing African partners “for their own social laws or their own sovereign decisions.”
He added that a Harris administration “could aggressively pursue those kinds of policies,” while a Trump administration “could aggressively pursue and revoke family planning from development assistance projects.”
Security: Is the US in or out?
And where could the US stand as an ally against unrest, extremism and democratic setbacks?
A has affected the Sahel and West Africa in recent years, and the continent is significantly impacted by intra-state armed conflicts, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), an independent research institute that has received worldwide recognition for its annual tracking of international arms exports.
“The situation is wanting and requires urgent intervention,” Wanyama told DW. “Africa does not have a permanent seat in the UN. That speaks volumes in terms of how Africa is viewed by developed countries. Africa has to look for solutions.”
Africa’s military juntas turn to actors like , while the US military had been after failing to maintain relations while also denouncing the coup in 2023 and pausing aid to Niger.
According to Alex Vines from the UK-based think tank Chatham House, Trump could further withdraw military support.
“His vision is very transactional, it’s in a way very neo-colonial,” Vines said. “So the first question that a Trump administration would ask could be what’s our gain? Which is very different from a philanthropic kind of response that you will get from Democrats.”
The US risks losing Africa
However, Hudson believes that Washington has an interest in preventing Eastern military expansion.
“Whether it’s in Angola or Equatorial Guinea or Gabon, which have been in conversation with China about developing naval ports for China’s military, that is seen as a direct strategic threat to the US.”
None of the experts believe that the US will prioritize Africa more after the election.
The focus will remain the “rivalry in particular against China and Russia,” Vines said.
“Harris would focus on trade, but a lot on philanthropy. Trump will be a lot more mercantilist and more inward-looking. I don’t think it will be beneficial to Africa.”
Whoever wins the White House, Wanyama warned, “will have to redesign a new policy towards Africa. If they don’t do that, the US risks losing the African continent to the East.”
Edited by: Keith Walker
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