In the 1970s, New York City’s population fell by 823,000 people, a loss of more than 10 percent. Crime rose by a third. As people and businesses fled, the city got dirtier, parks deteriorated and subways were scrawled with graffiti. The quality of life ebbed and financial disaster loomed; by 1975, the city had run out of money and had to turn to the state and, ultimately, the federal government, to avoid bankruptcy. It took New York two decades to get all those people back.
Now, in the wake of the pandemic, the city once again is facing the crisis it faced in the 1970s. Census figures from April 2020 showed a record population of 8.8 million people. But by July of last year, 550,000 residents had left, 6 percent of the population (though the true number may be lower if, as some believe, the 2020 census was inflated).
The same pattern is true for many other major American cities, including San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Boston. Each is facing population declines or stagnation as quality-of-life and cost-of-living challenges push people out of the city, taking tax revenue and spending dollars with them.
In New York City, that essential ingredient of urban living — the quality of life — has tanked. Thirty percent of residents feel that life in New York City is good or excellent, down from half in 2017, according to a recent survey by the nonpartisan Citizens Budget Commission. Only about half of the population feels safe riding the subway during the day versus more than eight in 10 in 2017. Only one out of 10 of residents feel the city is addressing their housing needs as rents have climbed by about 17 percent since the pandemic began.
The quality of life in New York City is directly connected to the city’s operating budget, and that is where the problems afflicting the city lie. Budgets for the agencies responsible for making life in the city enjoyable and fulfilling — education, safety, the environment, cleanliness, parks, culture, housing and transportation — have barely budged after rising by nearly 4 percent a year for much of this century, according to my analysis of the city’s budget data. As so many people have left, the city no longer has the tax revenue to spend as it once did on quality-of-life concerns. And so it faces a vicious cycle of decline rather than a virtuous cycle of growth essential for any city’s continued or renewed success.
The most important metric of a city’s health is population growth. A city is like any other product. It has customers. It has competitors. It has to be marketed. New York City is successful when more people choose it over other places to live.
When the city grows, each average new resident is a plus. Because so much has already been invested in infrastructure, the average new resident will generate a net profit in tax revenue for the city. And when those new tax revenues are invested in the things that improve quality of life, the city’s magnetic pull grows, attracting even more residents, businesses and tourists.
Growth is only half the challenge, however. A robust partnership with the private sector is essential. Businesses have so much more money to invest in a city than the city government does. But the private sector won’t invest unless it has confidence in the future.
As a first order of business, Mayor Eric Adams has to go. He should resign or Gov. Kathy Hochul should remove him. The stench of corruption that surrounds him is not only a distraction; it is intolerable. Top officials have resigned from his administration and more are considering fleeing. That is not the way a city government should run.
For New York City to rebound and grow, five other crucial things must happen.
Crime must come down. From 2019 to 2023, there was a jump of nearly 33 percent in the seven major felonies — murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny and auto theft. Overall, those felonies actually went up slightly in 2023 (though murders fell) and are only down by 2 percent so far this year. The Police Department has failed to bring down crime. Perpetrators of violent crime in New York City are concentrated among relatively small groups in areas with high rates of crime. The Police Department has sophisticated databases to help it understand who they are. It has to make more effective use of “precision policing,” including the narrow and tactical use of “stop and frisk” to focus its resources on those who are thought to be the primary drivers of violence.
The city needs to find an effective way to get mentally ill people off the subway. Money should be invested in supportive housing and services such as medication-assisted treatment and mandatory evaluation and referral. We need to leverage the philanthropic sector to house and serve mentally ill New Yorkers in need. Our academic medical centers must be a part of this and be willing to take care of more of these New Yorkers.
City government must become much more efficient. The state comptroller, Tom DiNapoli, estimates that the city work force numbers 283,000, down from over 300,000 before the pandemic. The city is now spending much more on overtime and won’t be able to increase its work force until tax revenues grow. One approach to streamline costs while improving the quality of life would be for the city to partner with the nonprofit sector to create a new version of the Depression-era Civilian Conservation Corps. This organization would hire newly arrived migrants to help clean up the streets and parks. The city would fund the program through the nonprofits, which would be able to hire workers more cheaply. If the program violates federal work restrictions for asylum seekers, so be it. Given the federal government’s lack of support of the rising number of migrants in New York City, it is unlikely to sue the city.
The city’s housing emergency is strangling growth and economic prosperity. We need to make the city affordable for the middle class. Over half of the city’s residents spent more than a third of their income on housing. That’s a big reason so many people are leaving the city. Last year, only 16,359 new homes were permitted, the lowest since 2016.
We must build 500,000 units of housing over the next decade. The City of Yes for Housing Opportunity, a city initiative that would make it easier to build affordable housing and to convert office buildings to housing, is an encouraging start, but it won’t get us there. There are several things that can speed up the development of housing. One of them is eliminating reviews of land use applications for 100 percent affordable housing and shortening review timetables for other housing. This will reduce cost and move more projects into construction faster. The state should also eliminate environmental reviews for projects of fewer than 200 units. In addition, the city and state need more capital to finance middle-income housing built by private developers. The city’s housing finance agency can generate additional funding by issuing more bonds. The state also must provide additional financing and incentives to encourage affordable multifamily housing.
Lastly, the city needs a big project that shows New Yorkers that city government can get big things done, and quickly. The city should revitalize Midtown Manhattan, which has suffered greatly since the pandemic, as a vibrant 24/7 district. Now that congestion pricing is dead, the city needs to significantly raise parking rates in Midtown and use the funds to think more radically about turning the area into a pedestrian-friendly district. Midtown needs more retail businesses, restaurants and entertainment venues. More streets should be narrowed to make way for pedestrians and bike riders. The recent $350 million plan to rejuvenate Fifth Avenue between Central Park and Bryant Park is welcome, but we need much more. Some streets should be closed periodically for street fairs and green markets. More housing and schools should be added to that Midtown mix. More people on the streets in the center of Manhattan will accelerate the momentum for workers to come back to the office, which the city needs to thrive.
New York is a remarkably compassionate city. Its residents believe in helping those in need and providing the tools for people to capitalize on opportunity. But all of that requires money. We should never forget how quickly the virtuous cycle can go into reverse and how disastrous the consequences can be. So, to be a progressive city, we must be a prosperous city. And we can’t be a prosperous city unless we are a growing city.
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