LAS VEGAS — Nevada’s early-voting numbers show Democratic presidential-election dominance in the swing state could come crashing down next month, making former President Donald Trump the first Republican to win the state’s six Electoral College votes in 20 years.
A 2020 Democratic lead of 47,000 ballots returned by this point in the cycle has been erased, with a swing of close to 53,000 Republican ballots, GOP campaign strategist Jeremy Hughes tweeted Tuesday.
It’s given Republicans a nearly 6,000-vote lead in the Silver State.
The changing ballot numbers come as a new AARP poll shows the ex-prez ahead of Kamala Harris in Nevada by 2 points, with independent voters over 50 preferring Trump 41% versus 27% for the vice president.
A Trump win here would seriously dent Harris’ chances of keeping the White House in Democratic hands. The veep’s team had former President Barack Obama in North Las Vegas Saturday and will bring in First Lady Jill Biden and Gov. Tim Walz during the next week in an attempt to juice turnout.
Early voting in Nevada ends Nov. 1, while mail-in ballots can be received up to Nov. 9 by 5 p.m. — four days after Election Day — provided they are postmarked by Nov. 5.
Mail-in and early-voting totals the secretary of state’s released show 263,410 ballots cast as of Monday, representing 13.1% of statewide turnout. The 101,231 GOP ballots cast so far lead the 95,392 Democratic ballots by 5,839, or 2.2%. A further 66,787 ballots were cast by unaffiliated voters or those registered with other political parties.
What those early ballots — in-person and postal — contain won’t be known until the polls close Nov. 5. But pundit Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent, said Monday night the GOP hasn’t seen a statewide ballot lead here since 2008, and it “could signal serious danger” for the Harris campaign.
RealClearPolitics’ Nevada polling average gives Trump a 0.7-point lead over Harris, down one-tenth of a point from the weekend.
At issue is the so-called “Clark County firewall” Democrats supposedly have in the state’s most populous county, which includes Las Vegas and boasts 1.4 million registered voters. That amounts to 70% of the state’s 1.98 million “active” and registered voters.
Election officials reported 72,969 Clark County Democrats have voted early as of Tuesday, versus 66,481 Republicans and 49,893 “other” voters. That gives the Democrats a margin of roughly 6,500 votes, but Washoe County — the state’s second-largest by population — and several rural counties are seeing strong turnouts.
Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Victor Joecks tweeted Democrats “need to run up the score in Clark [County]. They haven’t done it so far.”
Silver State Republicans say the early results are encouraging and a result of hard work on the ground.
“We’re seeing a strong turnout from Republicans who understand the importance of banking their vote ahead of time,” Nevada GOP Chairman and Trump senior adviser Michael J. McDonald told The Post.
“This enthusiasm reflects the confidence voters have in President Trump’s leadership and his ability to solve Nevadans’ top concerns: rising costs, stagnant wages, and affordable housing.”
GOP combat veteran Sam Brown’s Senate campaign is also heartened by the early-voting numbers.
“There is incredible energy on the ground,” said Raegan Lehman, campaign communications director. “Nevadans have made it clear they are ready for a change and the momentum is on our side.”
Democrats, meanwhile, believe targeting the state’s nonpartisan voters will deliver them a victory, albeit slim.
“Nevada is consistently won by a field margin. As we’ve said all along, this election will be close. We know nonpartisan voters will play a major role in deciding this election, which is why we invested early in a ground game focused on both turning out Democrats and earning support from nonpartisans and moderate Republicans,” Nevada Democratic Party spokesman Nicholas Simões Machado told The Post.
“Nevada Democrats have been laser-focused all cycle on talking directly to the growing number of registered nonpartisans and making sure we mobilize the broad and diverse coalition we need to win statewide.”
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