If politics can feel like a game of what-have-you-done-for-me-lately, an important question in this election is whether voters believe former President Donald J. Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris has done, or would do, more for them.
It’s a question on which Mr. Trump has fared better than his Democratic opponents for much of this campaign season, polls show. And it helps explain how he has chipped away at Democrats’ support among key demographic groups, like Black and Hispanic voters, and young voters.
But the most recent New York Times/Siena College polling shows that Ms. Harris is competitive with Mr. Trump on this question, especially nationally, though she lags behind him in battleground states.
The polls suggest that Ms. Harris has been able to distance herself somewhat from President Biden, whom voters have consistently seen as less helpful than Mr. Trump. In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, Ms. Harris said that her administration “will not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.”
In a national Times/Siena poll this month, Ms. Harris edged out Mr. Trump when likely voters were asked to compare the two current candidates directly on who is more trusted to help voters personally. About 44 percent thought Ms. Harris would help them more, compared with 42 percent for Mr. Trump.
Still, there are some warning signs for Ms. Harris in battleground states that are considered likely to decide the election.
In polling of five swing states last month, on balance, more voters thought Ms. Harris’s policies would be harmful than helpful: 37 percent said a Harris administration would help people like them, while 43 percent said it would hurt. They felt slightly more positively about her ability to help than voters have felt about Mr. Biden’s ability all year, though.
Views of Mr. Trump’s time in office were warmer: 46 percent said he had helped people like them, and 35 percent said he had hurt people like them.
(The battleground states included were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. The question was not asked in Pennsylvania.)
Asking voters whether the candidates would help them personally, or help people like them, can be a powerful question that helps provide insight into why some voters might be shifting in unexpected directions.
Many voters across demographic groups have long expressed nostalgia for Mr. Trump’s policies. In the national Times/Siena poll this month, twice as many likely voters said Mr. Trump’s time in office had helped them personally than said the same of Mr. Biden’s administration.
Voters have consistently ranked the economy and inflation as their top issues and have given Mr. Biden low marks on his handling of them.
And for many voters, who view this election through a highly transactional lens, who would better help their own financial situation is paramount.
Among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups, including Black, Hispanic and female voters, Mr. Trump has made inroads with those who remember his policies fondly.
But even as 68 percent of Black voters in swing states said Ms. Harris’s policies would help people like them, she is still struggling to match the support among Black voters that Mr. Biden and Hillary Clinton claimed in the last two elections.
Nationally, 14 percent of Black voters said Mr. Trump’s administration would be more helpful to them, and nearly all of those voters intended to support the former president.
Chad Thompson, 44, of Marion County, Fla., is one of the many Black men who said they were excited to vote for Mr. Trump.
“Wages were better under Trump. And frankly, I don’t want to have us get into World War III,” said Mr. Thompson, who works in construction and said that jobs were more readily available during Mr. Trump’s administration.
Among Hispanic voters in swing states, Ms. Harris has an edge: 45 percent said she would help, compared with 30 percent who said it of Mr. Trump.
But Hispanic voters still viewed Mr. Trump’s policies more positively than Mr. Biden’s.
“Gas was just cheaper back then,” said Thomas Solis, of Harris County, Texas, referring to Mr. Trump’s term. “There was minimal inflation. I thought things in the country were going very well.”
Mr. Solis, who is Hispanic, said he planned to support Mr. Trump.
Ms. Harris also had a narrow edge over Mr. Trump with female voters in swing states on whose policies would be more helpful: 46 percent to 40 percent.
“Trump is a threat to my personal health and safety as a woman who wants to have a child one day,” said Katie Kibler, 30, of Atlanta. “I don’t want to put my health and life at risk in a state where I can’t get the health care that I need.”
Ms. Kibler said that abortion was the single most important issue in her vote, and that she planned to support Ms. Harris.
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