BRUSSELS — While no European leader or bureaucrat has threatened to deport 20 million people or ban Muslims — except, perhaps, former President Donald Trump’s favorite European, Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán — the European Union and Trump are closer on the issue of migration than words may suggest.
EU countries have individually pushed to crack down on migration after substantial surges in support for anti-immigrant parties in various European elections this year.
While they mostly eschew the racist, xenophobic rhetoric Trump uses to describe immigrants, in the hard, cold light of policy their positions are not all so different. And at a meeting in Brussels, EU leaders spent hours discussing migrant processing centers, speedier deportations and so-called “hybrid warfare” by hostile powers using migrants to destabilize EU countries.
“A new wind is blowing in Europe,” said the Dutch anti-Islam, anti-immigration, populist Freedom Party leader Geert Wilders in Brussels on Thursday after a meeting of far-right leaders.
Migration has been at the forefront for Europe’s politicians since 2015, when more than a million migrants, many of them Syrians fleeing war, made their way to the bloc.
In the ensuing decade, the EU’s collective has shifted from the “we can do it” stance of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel to trying to new arrivals them away from the EU border altogether. In 2023, fewer than 300,000 people made it to the Continent. This year, the EU’s border agency, Frontex, estimates about 160,000 migrants have made it to Europe.
In recent months, nearly a dozen European countries have instituted some form of border restrictions in an attempt to deter migrants, refugees and asylum seekers.
Poland this month announced a temporary halt to processing asylum requests from migrants arriving from neighboring Belarus, invoking a security threat. Germany’s Olaf Scholz instituted border controls this summer to stop undocumented migrants from crossing into Germany after a Syrian man stabbed eleven people, killing three. Six other countries, including Italy, France and Austria, have introduced border checks.
And some analysts say if Trump were to return to the White House, it would put more wind in the sails of those who have matched and mirrored his administration’s ambitions on migration.
“Certainly, many member states that have pushed for a restrictive approach to migration will be watching the American elections very closely. This will give [EU countries pushing for more restrictions] further bargaining chips to push for their preferences both in the U.S. as well as in the EU,” said Alberto-Horst Neidhardt, head of European Migration and Diversity at the European Policy Centre.
Returns and deportations
The vague terminology around “return hubs” and “processing centers” mirrors Trump’s “Migrant Protection Program.” The program, colloquially known as “Remain in Mexico,” went into force in 2019 and forced tens of thousands of non-Mexican migrants back across the U.S. border to Mexico and forced them to await migration decisions there.
In a letter to leaders this week, Ursula von der Leyen, head of the EU’s executive branch, endorsed the idea of what she calls “return hubs,” buildings to detain migrants in non-EU countries. (Spain’s prime minister, a relatively lonely voice on the matter, on Thursday rejected the idea after the EU leaders met.)
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has inaugurated so-called “processing centers” in Albania where people headed to Italy will be transported — echoing Australia’s policy of sending asylum seekers to Papua New Guinea to have their claims processed.
Meanwhile, France is pushing to change EU law to facilitate deportations to third countries. And the EU already has thousands of kilometers of physical fencing at its external borders — a setup that far exceeds Trump’s much-touted but never-completed border wall with Mexico.
Some experts argue that the mainstreaming of hardline rhetoric is is leading to policy change that favors Europe’s right.
“If you listen to Orbán and Meloni at times and others like [France’s far-right leader Marine] Le Pen over the years, the rhetoric has been as harsh and as virulent as what we hear from politicians like Trump in the United States,” Judith Sunderland, associate Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch.
“There is an intent to make it sound like it’s legal, like it is in line with international law,” Sunderland said.
The policy changes have similar aims to Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance: Reducing numbers of new arrivals and sending people back to their countries of origin, even if those places are potentially unstable or unsafe.
“We have to recognize the current solutions don’t work,” said one EU diplomat who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the conversation.
That, Trump and many EU leaders would agree on.
What’s in a word?
The major difference, though, is in style and tone. Europeans tend to tiptoe around contentious issues.
Take the d-word: “Deportations.”
For Trump, who has vowed to deport between 15 and 20 million people from the U.S. if re-elected in November, using the word “deportation” is a badge of honor.
“Under the Trump administration, if you came in illegally, you were apprehended immediately and you were deported,” the Republican presidential hopeful crowed at a rally in July. “That’s why, to keep our family safe, the Republican platform promises to launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country.”
For European leaders and officials, though, the d-word (which is linked, for many in Europe, to Nazi deportations to death camps during World War II) is almost taboo. The bloc’s officials speak gingerly of “returns” or “return hubs” to describe enclosed camps or detention centers they’ve set up outside the EU.
And when it comes to describing how migrants reach its borders, EU leaders tend to tread carefully again.
While Trump has no qualms about qualifying some migrants as being “illegal” and decrying “illegal immigration,” in the EU migration that doesn’t come via airports or other official routes is officially described as “irregular.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is the one EU leader to buck the trend, doing away with European niceties and fully embracing Trump-style rhetoric, and straight-up villainizing migrants with his right-wing nationalist stance. The strongman leader vowed earlier this month to bus migrants to Brussels, copying a similar vow by Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who sent migrants in his state to Martha’s Vineyard, a posh vacation spot in Massachusetts.
“I have been chest-deep in the bloodbath of the migration debate for quite some time,” Orbán recently told a press conference in Brussels, channeling Trump.
Forging ahead
But it’s not all smooth sailing for Europe’s migration hardliners — some leaders are facing setbacks in real time.
This week, Meloni proclaimed Italy’s migration policy “a model for Europe.” But Thursday, while she gathered with other European leaders in Brussels, her offshore detention centers in Albania hit their first hurdle.
Four of the 16 migrants sent to Albania have already been put on a boat back to Italy because they were children or were considered vulnerable (only male adults who are not considered vulnerable can be taken to Albania after a screening at sea under Italy’s own rules).
Opposition groups and NGOs immediately called the project a failure.
“It will have very real consequences on people around the world, potentially, because those other countries look at what the EU is doing to them and say, well, you know, why should we guarantee people’s rights?” asked Sunderland, from Human Rights Watch.
The bigger concern, for some critics, is that harsh rhetoric and measures on migration will open the door to other illiberal policies.
“Migration has really become a trojan horse for conservative forces to then push an agenda that goes beyond migration,” said the European Policy Centre’s Neidhardt.
Hannah Roberts contributed reporting.
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