Inside the latest Trump and Harris economic pitches
With the presidential race virtually a dead heat, Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Tuesday zeroed in on voters who could swing the outcome.
Their latest pitches provided new details about how each would run the economy, and came as more information emerged about the financial firepower supporting their campaigns.
“The most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff,’” Trump said in an interview with John Micklethwait, the editor in chief of Bloomberg News, at the Economic Club of Chicago. He proposed setting levies at as high as 50 percent — up from the 10 percent he had previously floated — to encourage companies to bring back production to the United States.
Several economists have warned that such tariffs, along with the tax cuts that Trump has floated, could aggravate inflation, cost as much as $15 trillion and potentially cause a recession. But the Republican candidate waved away such concerns, saying, “I was always very good at mathematics.”
Trump took shots at foils new and old, again underscoring his increasingly combative approach to opponents. As Micklethwait pressed him on the downsides of tariffs, Trump told him, “You’ve been wrong all your life.”
Trump hit out again at Google, which he has accused of showing only negative stories about him. “Google is rigged just like our government is rigged,” he said. (The company has denied the former president’s claims.) But Trump suggested that the tech giant shouldn’t be broken up, saying that “China is afraid of Google.”
He also took a swipe at Jay Powell, the Fed chair with whom he has clashed. More on that below.
Elsewhere, Harris promoted ideas to help Black voters build up wealth. Amid concerns that Black men in particular are shifting allegiances to Trump, the vice president talked up proposals, including one million loans that would forgive up to $20,000 for Black entrepreneurs, and the legalization of marijuana.
“I know exactly how those laws have been used to disproportionately impact certain populations and specifically Black men,” she said in an interview with the radio host Charlamagne Tha God in Detroit. (She also took aim at Trump, criticizing moves of his including selling bibles and sneakers: “Ask Donald Trump what his plan is for Black America,” she said.)
Harris is set to appear on Wednesday on Fox News, hoping to reach more independent and undecided voters.
Separately, more details emerged about the campaigns’ finances. Three major donors alone — Dick Uihlein, Elon Musk and Miriam Adelson — donated a combined $220 million to pro-Trump groups from July to September. (Also worth reading: The Times’s close look at the Trump campaign’s creative bookkeeping.)
Contributions to Harris during the period included at least $926,000 from the venture capitalist Tim Draper, who backed Nikki Haley during the Republican primary. More intriguingly, a pro-Harris group received a $1 million donation from the crypto executive Chris Larsen, suggesting that some cryptocurrency moguls are warming up to Democrats after criticizing the Biden administration’s crackdown on digital currencies.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
Global chips stocks fall after ASML delivers a disappointing outlook. Shares in the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker tumbled on Wednesday, a second straight day of sharp declines, after the company warned of slowing demand for its products. Its biggest customers, including Taiwan’s TSMC, also fell. ASML has been hit especially hard by chip-export controls placed on China by the Biden administration.
Apple briefly hits a record on enthusiasm for A.I.-enabled gadgets. Shareholders appeared to have renewed belief that artificial intelligence could supercharge device sales; on that note, the tech giant introduced a new iPad Mini model on Tuesday that, like its new iPhones, will heavily feature the technology.
Tom Brady joins the N.F.L. owners club. The league’s owners voted to let Brady, the former star quarterback and now an analyst for Fox, his former teammate Richard Seymour and the hedge fund billionaire Tom Wagner acquire a minority stake in the Las Vegas Raiders. The deal, whose terms were not disclosed, had been in the works for over a year.
The Trump appointee making waves at the Fed
The Federal Reserve chair is “the greatest job in government,” Donald Trump said on Tuesday at the Economic Club of Chicago. “You show up to the office once a month and you say, ‘Let’s see, flip a coin,’ and everybody talks about you like you’re a god.”
But a big question among Fed watchers is whom Trump will pick for that exalted position if he is re-elected in November, The Times’s Jeanna Smialek writes for DealBook.
Trump soured on Jay Powell over interest rate policy. The Fed chair’s term expires in May 2026, and one of Trump’s advisers has suggested that he should announce his new Fed pick even earlier than that. Wall Street would focus on the “shadow” chair, the logic goes, rendering Powell less powerful.
But who could that be? Some names are circulating on Wall Street and in Washington, including Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor now at Stanford, and Kevin Hassett, a former Trump economic adviser, are mentioned often. Christopher Waller, a Trump-appointed Fed governor, is frequently raised as a possibility.
One person who could get a big promotion is Michelle Bowman. Until a few weeks ago, few outside Washington’s nerdiest banking circles knew the name of the Fed governor. But the former community banker has started to make waves.
Bowman opposed the Fed’s big September rate cut, making her the first Fed governor to vote “no” on a rate decision since 2005. She has come out against a push to finalize and tighten key banking regulations. And she has conservative credentials that are relatively rare in central banking circles.
Bowman is getting some political attention. Senator JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, cited one of her speeches during the vice-presidential debate. That hardly makes her a shoo-in for Fed chair, but some wonder whether she could get a look — in part because she has already been confirmed to her current role by the Senate.
That may mean she would have an easier time passing through the confirmation process for an even bigger role.
Even if she isn’t in line for the top job, she could be a contender for another important position, like the Fed vice chair for banking supervision, or for a role in the Treasury or in the White House. In any case, hers is a name to watch.
Banking on a rebound
Coming into this earnings season, one group that looked especially vulnerable was banking. Analysts had penciled in a profit hit for the sector, foreseeing sluggishness in key corporate businesses and continued thriftiness among consumers. They also questioned what effect the Fed’s plan to cut rates would have.
So far, banks are defying the naysayers, including those within their own ranks. Morgan Stanley on Wednesday continued that pattern, reporting better-than-expected earnings.
A standout revelation is a rebound in deal-making. Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reported a combined $6.5 billion in investment banking fees for last quarter, up 27 percent from a year earlier.
“We see significant pent-up demand from our clients,” David Solomon, Goldman’s C.E.O., told analysts on Tuesday. Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan added, “We feel good across the board.” (That said, venture capitalists are not nearly as upbeat about the I.P.O. market.)
Smaller players are beating expectations. PNC and Charles Schwab, the brokerage with a large banking business, appear to have put the trauma of last year’s regional banking crisis behind them, reporting shored-up finances and predicting modest growth.
“Some might refer to it as an inflection point,” Walt Bettinger, Schwab’s departing C.E.O., told analysts. Schwab gained 6.1 percent on Tuesday, the third-best performing stock in the S&P 500.
Anticipating a weaker economy this year, banks set aside more money in recent quarters to cushion the blow from an expected wave of nonperforming loans. But the economic soft landing so far has been strong enough to stave off that worst-case scenario, according to analysts.
What to watch: Results from regional lenders, including Comerica, KeyBank, Regions Financial and Truist, in the coming days should provide a clearer picture on the overall health of the sector.
Why LVMH is spooking investors
Shares in LVMH plunged on Wednesday after Bernard Arnault’s luxury behemoth missed earnings expectations and warned about an “uncertain economic and geopolitical environment.”
The results sent a shudder through the luxury sector, with shares falling on LVMH’s slowing sales in the hugely important Chinese market.
LVMH is a bellwether for the sector. The conglomerate — which owns Dior, Tiffany, Fendi and more — reported that sales fell 3 percent last quarter, including the first slump in its core fashion and leather goods unit since the onset of the pandemic.
Shares in other fashion and lifestyle brands fell afterward, including Kering, the owner of Gucci, and Hermès. Adidas slid as well, even though the German sportswear giant beat expectations and raised its full-year financial guidance.
This is linked to investor jitters about China.
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Beijing introduced a package of measures last month that spurred a market rally in mainland China and in Hong Kong. But it hasn’t presented any detailed plans to stimulate consumer demand.
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Reports that China will now tax overseas investments of wealthy citizens suggest a continuing effort to rein in the type of people who buy LVMH products.
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And China’s retaliatory tariffs on European cars and brandy — LVMH owns Moët Hennessy — in response to E.U. levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles aren’t helping either.
Some industry observers are betting that LVMH will cope. “We are not sure this quarter particularly changes the LVMH story,” analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note. Even without a lot of detail, the stimulus signals in China are encouraging and demand will return, Bernstein said.
Chinese officials will hold a news conference tomorrow and are expected to outline more measures to bolster growth.
LVMH is also striking deals to lessen its dependence on China. After being the dominant sponsor at this summer’s Paris Olympics, the Arnaults are pushing further into sports as part of a long-term bet that luxury has potential new markets to tap.
The family is said to be teaming up with Red Bull to buy Paris F.C., a French soccer team, and LVMH announced a decade-long deal to sponsor Formula 1 that’s reportedly worth about €100 million ($109 million) a year.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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Pfizer appointed Tim Buckley, the former C.E.O. of Vanguard, to its board as it seeks to fend off an activist campaign by Starboard Value. Separately, here’s how Guggenheim Partners, a longtime Pfizer adviser, got caught up in the fight. (Pfizer, FT)
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“Washington Post C.E.O. Elevates Deal-Making to a Top Priority” (NYT)
Elections, politics and policy
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The F.D.I.C. is said to be weighing moves to limit the influence that major asset management firms including BlackRock and Vanguard have over big banks. (Semafor)
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Democratic lawmakers called on Fortune 1000 companies to stay committed to diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives as companies scale back such programs amid pushback by Republican policymakers. (AP)
Best of the rest
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Walgreens plans to close 1,200 stores as the pharmacy giant struggles to revive its business. (NYT)
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You may not want to become an A.I. chatbot — but there’s little you can do to stop others from making that happen. (Wired)
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The post Trump and Harris Push Economic Plans to Woo Holdouts appeared first on New York Times.
