He has been the target of two would-be assassins in a matter of months. The intelligence agencies have told him that Iran is still threatening to kill him, and Iranian hackers got into the email accounts of his aides.
Those developments have left former President Donald J. Trump and his staff fearful, frustrated and dependent for the candidate’s safety on federal agencies at the heart of what Mr. Trump has long portrayed as a hostile “deep state.”
But Mr. Trump and his team have also seized on his predicament for political ends, suggesting without evidence that the situation is at least partly the fault of the Biden-Harris administration for being unwilling to provide him the protection he needs to travel the country freely and meet voters on his terms.
Mr. Trump approaches Election Day as simultaneously a subject of federal prosecution, a candidate who has threatened to fire much of the federal bureaucracy and a target dependent for information and protection on the same agencies likely to endure his retribution should he take office again.
Interviews with people close to Mr. Trump and officials across the federal government reveal how deeply unnerved the Trump campaign has been by the assassination attempts and the Iranian threats and hacking — and how the American security apparatus has responded.
At the same time, as Mr. Trump attacks and politicizes the agencies charged with both investigating the threats and protecting him, officials in the Biden White House and at the Secret Service worry that he is laying the groundwork to blame them should he lose the election.
The result is a complex mix of security and politics never seen in any previous election, and one laced with tension.
The intelligence agencies that Mr. Trump has long scorned have assessed that the failed attempt on Mr. Trump’s life in Butler, Pa., in July, increased Iran’s confidence that the former president could be successfully targeted.
But the same agencies are doubtful that Iran has the capability to pull off such a plot and so far do not see any connection between the hacking of the emails and any planning to kill Mr. Trump.
Trump campaign officials, however, remain worried about such a link and are infuriated that, in their view, federal agencies are not taking Iran’s threats more seriously. Current U.S. officials say the Biden administration has privately warned Tehran that any attempt on Mr. Trump’s life would be viewed as an “act of war.”
The F.B.I. has built a case against the Iranian hackers, who now face federal charges. The bureau has been careful to keep Mr. Trump and his aides up to speed on developments, and it has set up a filter, or “taint,” team to keep any politically sensitive information agents get access to during the investigation walled off from all but a small group.
But inside the Trump campaign, where suspicion of and resentment about the F.B.I. runs deep, there is still residual wariness about providing investigators with access to phones — and growing anger that the hacking continued for weeks or months after being discovered and may still be underway.
Three months after a gunman fired at Mr. Trump during a rally in Butler, his relationship with the Secret Service has only become more fraught. He is both demanding more protection and suggesting that the Biden White House’s unwillingness to provide him with everything he is seeking is part of an effort to limit his campaign travels and hold down the size of his crowds.
Citing the threats from Iran, Trump campaign officials have asked the federal government for, among other things, military assets that only sitting presidents get.
They have sought detection systems that could ward off a potential drone attack and a military jet similar to Air Force One or Air Force Two that could provide him with more security. For now, at the recommendation of the Secret Service, Mr. Trump is traveling on his own plane less, and using multiple planes on some trips.
“In this heightened threat environment, some additional measures have been taken, but other measures recommended by experts — including members of Congress — have not been provided,” Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, said in a statement.
“When President Trump returns to the White House, he will stand up to adversaries who make threats against our nation, and he will ensure federal agencies do everything they can to keep designated protectees and their families safe,” he said. “Public service is an honor and privilege. It should not cost a person their life.”
Intelligence Meets Politics
Early in the evening of Tuesday, Sept. 24, the former president stepped off the campaign trail and into an F.B.I. building in West Palm Beach, Fla., a short drive from Mar-a-Lago, his estate and private club.
Inside the secure room, Mr. Trump received a briefing from two officials with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence about the threats on his life from Iran, whose leaders have vowed vengeance for Mr. Trump’s ordering of the killing of a top Iranian general, Qassim Suleimani, in early 2020.
The former president was told that Iran’s goal is to assassinate him before Election Day, according to two people with knowledge of the briefing, which was arranged at the initiative of the Secret Service and the Department of Homeland Security.
Hours after the Sept. 24 briefing, the Trump campaign issued a statement about the update that included a gratuitous political attack: “Make no mistake, the terror regime in Iran loves the weakness of Kamala Harris, and is terrified of the strength and resolve of President Trump.”
In the days that followed, Mr. Trump baselessly claimed that his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, was deliberately depriving him of security to hinder his ability to campaign.
This series of events highlights how Mr. Trump has injected his brand of grievance and blame-shifting politics onto the national security imperative of protecting him.
At the center of the turmoil are the threats from Iran. Even more than the assassination attempts by two American citizens who appear to have been working alone, the combination of the hacking and the possibility of an attempt on Mr. Trump’s life by Tehran has left his campaign deeply unsettled and in even more complex relationships with security agencies that he has promised to fundamentally overhaul if elected.
The former president has angrily asked people close to him why President Biden has not publicly threatened that the Iranians will be “blown to smithereens” if they attack Mr. Trump.
U.S. officials said a version of that warning had been delivered. Repeated private messages have been sent to the highest levels of the Iranian government that the United States and the Biden administration would view any attempt on Mr. Trump’s life as “an act of war,” the officials said.
Sean Savett, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said the White House had been closely tracking Iranian threats against Mr. Trump and other former officials for years.
“We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority, and we strongly condemn Iran for these brazen threats,” Mr. Savett said. “Should Iran attack any of our citizens, including those who continue to serve the United States or those who formerly served, Iran will face severe consequences.”
American officials said the intelligence agencies were finding themselves in an impossible position with Mr. Trump.
They have a responsibility to view the threats clearly, but when they appear to minimize a particular threat, they risk enraging the Trump campaign, or the candidate himself. And when they emphasize the dangers, they can be accused of trying to curb his campaigning or provide fodder he may use for his political gain, including to find a scapegoat for an Election Day loss.
Intelligence officials said they have provided more than three times as many defensive briefings to 2024 candidates on a broad array of election threats as they have in previous cycles. Those briefings have included both physical threats against Mr. Trump and efforts by foreign adversaries to conduct influence operations for or against both major presidential nominees and an array of congressional candidates.
While the Iranians appear intent on trying to kill Mr. Trump, they are also focused on influencing the American public to try to defeat him at the ballot box by unearthing embarrassing or compromising information. U.S. officials said they believed the groups inside Iran involved in the hacking and influence operations were different from those involved in planning a potential assassination.
While Trump campaign officials believe the hacking attempts against the campaign could be used to provide information to potential assassins, U.S. officials are skeptical. Intelligence agencies believe the hacking attempts were part of an effort to learn information that could be embarrassing or politically damaging to Mr. Trump.
Iran has always recognized that it would be extremely difficult to kill Mr. Trump through a high-tech attack, like a sophisticated missile or military-grade drone, given the difficulties of smuggling such equipment into the United States. Explosives, while more common, are closely monitored and controlled. As a result, Iran has long focused on using firearms readily available in the United States.
U.S. intelligence agencies, including the F.B.I., have been sharing information gathered on the Iranian threat with the Secret Service, officials said.
After one such piece of intelligence about a possible approach Iran could make against Mr. Trump was given to the Secret Service in early July, the service’s leaders scrambled countersniper teams for Mr. Trump’s events, including the one that killed the gunman in Butler. (Because of the increased security concerns, Mr. Trump’s team was already discussing how to change the way they handled outdoor rallies.)
The gunman in Butler failed to kill Mr. Trump but succeeded in puncturing the Secret Service’s reputation, leading the intelligence agencies to assess that the Iranians had become more confident about their chances of assassinating him. Frequent outdoor public appearances, and easily obtainable rifles and scopes, meant the candidate was more vulnerable than the Iranians had initially realized.
U.S. intelligence agencies have also assessed that the biggest challenge for Iran is getting an operative into the United States and close to the former president, according to officials briefed on the intelligence. As a result, Tehran is focused on finding an overseas criminal syndicate or group that could hire a potential hit man, according to U.S. officials.
While U.S. officials believe it would be hard to find a hit man in America to target Mr. Trump without law enforcement learning about it, they say that because the Iranian threat against Mr. Trump is real, and unlikely to recede even if he loses in November, the government continues to treat it seriously.
In July, a Pakistani man, Asif Raza Merchant, was arrested in New York. Mr. Merchant, who had recently visited Iran, was charged with trying to hire a hit man to assassinate American politicians. Investigators believe his potential targets included Mr. Trump.
While the F.B.I. was monitoring Mr. Merchant, the bureau leaders were deeply concerned about the plot and warned the Secret Service about the potential threat. Christopher A. Wray, the F.B.I. director, was personally involved, making sure the Secret Service was aware of the information. It was in response to the threat that the Secret Service sent counter snipers to the Trump rally in Butler, Pa., in July — the first time such teams had been deployed to protect a former president.
The Biden administration faces an unusual challenge in keeping Mr. Trump informed about these threats. More than any president in the modern era, Mr. Trump has contempt for the U.S. intelligence community and puts little stock in its information or analysis. He often gives more weight to information he hears from friends on the Mar-a-Lago patio or to former Secret Service agents who appear on conservative media.
Mr. Trump has refused to take the classified briefing about worldwide threats that intelligence agencies traditionally have given to presidential candidates before the election. The former president, who was prosecuted for his own mishandling of national security secrets after leaving office, has claimed that Biden officials will try to weaponize the briefing against him by leaking out details and blaming him for the leaks.
The F.B.I. as Both Friend and Foe
Earlier this year, a cyberespionage unit linked to Iranian military intelligence accelerated its efforts to penetrate the emails and computer systems of advisers to the former president.
While there is no indication that any stolen information released so far has damaged Mr. Trump’s election chances, the hacking had a profound psychological effect on Mr. Trump’s team and further complicated the former president’s relationship with the F.B.I.
Mr. Trump has been attacking the F.B.I. for years, since he learned of the bureau’s investigation into possible ties between his 2016 campaign and the Kremlin.
In the current campaign, he has portrayed the F.B.I. and Justice Department as corrupt agencies being used unjustly against him in two separate criminal investigations that led to charges against him — including one in which agents armed with a warrant descended on Mar-a-Lago to search for classified documents he had taken with him upon leaving office.
Mr. Trump speaks often about his desire to turn the Justice Department against his perceived enemies if he wins the election. Even before the recent spate of threats against him, he had called for the resignation of Mr. Wray, the F.B.I. director, whom he had appointed to the job.
But with the Iranian hacking in particular as a backdrop, Mr. Trump’s aides have spoken multiple times to the bureau, not as criminal suspects but as victims.
The bureau has taken steps to reassure Mr. Trump’s team that it is friend rather than foe in this instance, including the creation of the so-called filter team to ensure that any politically sensitive information swept up in the hacking investigation will be held within the smallest group possible. An F.B.I. spokesperson declined to comment.
Still, people familiar with the investigation say, Mr. Trump’s attitude toward the bureau runs hot and cold depending on the subject, the day and his mood.
After the first assassination attempt against him, Mr. Trump effusively praised the bureau, saying: “The F.B.I. came to see me about the shooter. I think they’ve done a very good job.”
But that may have been the high point in their relationship. After the second apparent assassination attempt against him in Florida, Mr. Trump complained that the Justice Department and F.B.I. were not pursuing the case aggressively enough, and suggested that state officials in Florida should take over the case.
Fueling that criticism and distrust of the F.B.I. is the fear among many Trump advisers that the Iranian hackers are trying to get location information that could be used to kill him, according to people familiar with the conversations between investigators and the victims.
The F.B.I. has told the Trump campaign that it is looking for evidence linking his would-be assassins in Butler and at his Florida golf course to Iran, but has yet to make such a connection, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Investigators have looked into the potential that the suspect arrested last month at Mr. Trump’s golf course, Ryan Routh, might have been inspired by Iran but not directed.
Mr. Routh used a flight tracker app on his phone to try to keep abreast of Mr. Trump’s whereabouts, and the evidence collected to date suggests Mr. Routh was more or less stalking the former president, according to people familiar with the investigation.
Mr. Trump often seizes on particular details of the investigations to voice alarm about the danger and skepticism that authorities are doing enough to get to the bottom of it, such as the apps used by one gunman, the many cellphones used by another and the difficulty investigators have had getting into some of those phones.
“When it comes to the assassination of a president, leading candidate, former president, all that,” Mr. Trump said recently on the “Flagrant” podcast, “I think the rules have to go out, and they have to open those things and they have to find out.”
The tensions are only heightened by an expectation among national security officials that Iran’s hacking efforts are continuing — material stolen from a campaign aide’s account in late September was posted online last week — and the worry that there could be a third attempt on Mr. Trump’s life before Election Day.
A Split View of the Secret Service
As they enter the final weeks of the campaign, Mr. Trump and his team have little confidence in the leaders of the Secret Service.
Mr. Trump and his allies have drawn a distinction between his personal detail — which he praises — and the agency’s senior officials, whom he sees as an arm of the Biden White House.
“The people who are around us, they are fantastic,” Melania Trump, the former first lady, said in a recent interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity, a Trump ally. “But, you know, for the top leadership, you have a question mark. And that’s all on this administration, that they could give permissions what to do.”
The requests for additional security being sought by the Trump campaign include military assets that government officials view as unworkable and unnecessary, including systems that could deter surface-to-air missiles and an elite special military force to bolster his protective detail.
The Secret Service often has private conversations with campaigns about protective measures, but in this case the requests have become public, rankling the agency’s leaders while they are already under scrutiny for the security failures around the Butler shooting.
Susie Wiles, a top Trump campaign aide, has taken some of the requests to Jeffrey D. Zients, the White House chief of staff, and Ronald L. Rowe Jr., the acting director of the Secret Service. And as Mr. Trump has accused the Biden White House of trying to prevent him from campaigning, the Secret Service has pointed out that it has also asked other people whom it protects to scale back events because of limited resources during peak periods like the closing stages of a campaign.
“The Democrats are interfering with my Campaign by not giving us the proper number of people within Secret Service that are necessary for Security,” Mr. Trump wrote in a social media post. “It is ELECTION INTERFERENCE that we have to turn away thousands of people from arenas and venues because it is not being provided to us.”
In a statement, Mr. Rowe, the acting director of the Secret Service, said that some of the Trump campaign’s requests had been met and that others would be. Among other things, the Secret Service has directed the Federal Aviation Administration to impose temporary flight restrictions over Mr. Trump’s residences and travel locations to more easily identify aerial threats.
“Some of the additional requests are beyond the scope of being applicable for the protective operations of the former president and are assets that facilitate the office of the sitting president as commander in chief and chief executive of the United States government,” he said.
Mr. Trump is close to the agents assigned to his detail. Some people in the former president’s orbit have an almost-familial relationship with some of them, including with his lead agent, who is seen as a top choice among Mr. Trump’s allies to run the Secret Service if Mr. Trump wins.
Twice since Mr. Trump left office, his lead agent, while off duty, had dinner at the Florida home of Steve Witkoff, a friend of Mr. Trump’s. The lead agent stayed over at least once because the weather was bad and travel would have been difficult, according to two people with knowledge of their interactions.
No one in the Secret Service has been dismissed over the operational failures surrounding the Butler shooting, though the previous director resigned under pressure. Six agents were placed on restricted duty, which sidelined them from participating in any protection operations. One was an agent on Mr. Trump’s detail who had a lead role in arranging the security for the fairgrounds in Butler. The other five were from the Pittsburgh field office.
That no one else in Mr. Trump’s personal detail has been held to account yet is the source of frustration among many other agents. Some think Mr. Rowe is trying to appease Mr. Trump by not assigning more blame to Mr. Trump’s agents who were involved in supervisory roles that day.
But the campaign’s drumbeat of complaints about security points to great frustration with Mr. Rowe among Mr. Trump’s aides and allies, even as Mr. Rowe has assigned additional protection to the former president.
“The Secret Service will remain vigilant and will continue to adjust and enhance its protective posture as needed to mitigate evolving threats,” Mr. Rowe wrote to the campaign in response to the most recent requests.
The post With Trump Facing Threats, Security and Politics Intersect as Never Before appeared first on New York Times.
