When JD Vance wanted to back up the assertion he made during the vice-presidential debate that new immigrants are exacerbating America’s housing affordability crisis, he cited a Federal Reserve study. Except it wasn’t a study. It was a speech by Michelle Bowman, a Fed governor appointed by former President Donald J. Trump.
Ms. Bowman’s name is likely little known outside of Washington. But that may be about to change, as Ms. Bowman positions herself as a prominent conservative voice at the central bank ahead of a possible Trump presidency.
Ms. Bowman, 53, was first nominated to the Fed’s seven-person Board of Governors by Mr. Trump in 2018. A former state bank commissioner of Kansas, she had previously worked in community banking and as an adviser in the Department of Homeland Security during the George W. Bush administration. She filled the governor spot on the Fed Board that is earmarked for community bankers.
Unlike many Fed officials, she is not a doctoral economist with a string of coastal schools behind her name. Ms. Bowman holds a degree in advertising and journalism from the University of Kansas and a law degree from Washburn University. Given her limited macroeconomic experience, she has never been a closely-watched player when it comes to the Fed’s interest rate decisions. Her speeches have long focused on nitty-gritty banking issues.
But Ms. Bowman’s criticism of the Fed’s approach to bank rules over the last two years — and her recent and rare move to push back on the central bank’s half-point interest rate cut — have combined to raise her public profile.
In September, Ms. Bowman voted against the central bank’s decision to lower interest rates sharply. That stood out, because Fed governors hardly ever dissent on economic policy: Hers was the first “no” vote by a governor since 2005.
Ms. Bowman offered a purely economic rationale. She explained that she is still worried about inflation, and would have preferred to start with a more typical quarter-point rate cut. But the move also came at a moment when Mr. Trump has been arguing that the Fed should not be cutting interest rates so close to the election, saying that it was a political attempt to help Democrats.
The move was just the latest instance of Ms. Bowman increasingly asserting herself. She has given 36 speeches so far this year, up from a total of 29 last year and 11 in 2022. More than a dozen of the 2024 speeches have had a clear focus on monetary policy or the economic outlook, compared to four in 2022.
Her increasingly vocal stance has placed the Fed governor in the spotlight, especially given the potential for another Trump presidency.
Ms. Bowman’s position on the Fed Board makes her an obvious candidate for a big government job in a possible Trump administration. For Fed leadership positions in particular, it is often easier to secure Senate approval for people who have already passed through confirmation before, as Ms. Bowman has. Mr. Trump has a history of struggling to get his central bank picks through Congress.
And while all of Ms. Bowman’s actions can be explained by her personal ideology — she is arguably the most conservative member of the Fed Board, and people familiar with her thinking agree that she has long been wary of inflation — her views often line up neatly with the preferences of the Trump campaign, with its penchant for light regulation and disapproval of rate cuts right now.
Given her background, Ms. Bowman is most often talked about as a possible next Fed vice chair for banking supervision. That role is currently held by a Biden appointee, Michael Barr, and it is a powerful position that involves shaping and implementing key rules for the nation’s largest banks.
But given her new visibility on economic policy and Mr. Vance’s recent attention to her speech, some on Wall Street and in Washington are beginning to speculate that she might even be putting herself in a place to be considered as the next Fed chair when Jerome H. Powell’s term expires in May 2026.
“It is absolutely plausible that if Trump were to win, when Powell is gone, she could be looked at as an heir apparent,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro. “He put her up once, and she’s been confirmed by Congress.”
For now, discussions about possible Fed personnel in a second Trump administration have been limited, according to people familiar with the matter.
Ms. Bowman’s name does not make the list that circulates through the financial press and Wall Street circles, and several people in conservative circles said they doubt her chances for the top job.
Instead, Christopher Waller, another Fed governor and a fellow Trump appointee, is often mentioned. So is Kevin Hassett, a former Trump senior adviser. Another name on that list is Kevin Warsh, who served on the Fed during the George W. Bush administration and whom Mr. Trump considered for another stint during his first term.
Nor is Ms. Bowman’s the only name that comes up for the vice chair for supervision — a job that could remain unavailable for some time, since Mr. Barr’s term does not expire until mid-2026. Others include Christina Parajon Skinner at the University of Pennsylvania, a lawyer with a focus on financial regulation.
But by voting against the size of the Fed’s recent rate cut, Ms. Bowman placed some space between herself and Mr. Waller in particular. Her fellow Fed governor voted for the move.
“She has become famous — at least Washington famous,” said Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed and legal historian at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
This would not the first time that there has been substantial distance between Ms. Bowman and her colleagues. She has long been relatively conservative when compared to the sort of moderate Republicans who tend to populate central banking roles in Washington.
When the Fed was working on a revamp of its policy approach in 2019 — a push that was led by a Trump appointee, but which more progressive groups celebrated — she questioned why one was necessary, according to a person familiar with the process.
Later, when she was leading Fed outreach events, she insisted heatedly to organizers that they needed to avoid looking like they were pairing with liberal causes, another person said. And staffers at the Fed at one point in 2021 raised concerns when they learned that Ms. Bowman had not yet been vaccinated for Covid-19, according to people present for and familiar with the episode.
She and her family have a history of donating to Republicans, based on OpenSecrets data. Her husband, Wesley Bowman, has continued to do so while she has been at the Fed — though almost entirely to Kansas politicians. Mr. Bowman donated to Kansas Republican Senator Jerry Moran in 2021. And Mr. Bowman works for Stand Together, a nonprofit founded by the Republican megadonor Charles Koch.
The Fed declined to comment for this article.
The post Could the Lone Fed Dissenter Be in Line for a Powerful Role if Trump Wins? appeared first on New York Times.