Two swing states Donald Trump carried in 2016 and lost in 2020 may be coming back into his column in 2024.
And if the numbers from Redfield & Wilton’s survey of Georgia and Pennsylvania voters hold up when votes are counted in a little more than three weeks, Kamala Harris’ path to the White House could narrow considerably.
In 2020, the former president lost to Joe Biden by 0.23 points in Georgia and 1.2 in Pennsylvania.
This sampling shows Trump up by 1 point in Georgia, 48% to 47%. And he’s up 2 points in Pennsylvania, 48% to 46%.
In both cases, the former president has leads where he didn’t last time these pollsters were in the field: Georgia was tied, and Harris led in Pennsylvania.
The shift in momentum is significant, given these states have a combined 35 electoral votes. If Trump takes these and the states he’s expected to win otherwise, he’s got 254 of the 270 needed, opening multiple paths to victory.
The simplest solution?
Winning North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes would be enough to push the ex-prez over the threshold.
Alternatively, winning any two of the remaining battlegrounds — Arizona (11 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Nevada (6 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) — would suffice to give Trump an Electoral College win.
Trump’s success in the two states surveyed here comes down to a pair of relative phenomena.
He’s doing a better job flipping people who voted for Biden in 2020 than Harris is in attracting last cycle’s Trump voters. And he’s holding more of his own voters than the vice president is retaining those Biden backers, particularly in one state.
Trump is drawing 12% of Biden 2020 voters in Pennsylvania and 13% in Georgia, while Harris is converting 6% of former Trumpers in the Keystone State. In Georgia, she’s taking 11% of Trump voters from four years ago, which is closer to parity.
“Trump retains 86% of his 2020 voters in Georgia, rising to 90% in Pennsylvania. Harris is supported by 82% of voters in Georgia who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, as well as 85% in Pennsylvania,” the pollsters note.
With inflation a major issue the last four years under the Biden-Harris administration, the high cost of living obsesses voters in both these swing states, with 43% of Georgians and 45% of Pennsylvanians pinpointing inflation as the most important issue to them.
Nearly three-quarters of voters in both states say it’s “extremely” important, meaning people (including the few undecided voters left) may be checking their bank accounts before they cast their ballots.
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