RENO, Nev. — As union workers prepared to knock on doors to support Sen. Jacky Rosen on a sunny Thursday afternoon, the Nevada Democrat assured them that their hard work would pay off.
“Those gym shoes are going to be worn out over the next 26 days … and on election night, you have helped me, and whoever else you’re helping, return the Democratic majority in the United States Senate!” Rosen said, eliciting cheers from the workers packed into the Culinary Union hall in Reno.
Democrats have to win Nevada, and hold onto their seats in other perennial battlegrounds, to keep their slim Senate majority, as they also try to stem losses or pick up a GOP-held seat in redder states.
While Republicans don’t need to win Nevada to flip the Senate, the state could help dictate the size of a GOP majority. And that could determine if the Senate will be at the mercy of a few moderates or driven by a larger and more emboldened Republican majority. Operatives in both parties expect the race between Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, an Army veteran, to tighten in the final weeks, as former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris also battle for the state’s six electoral votes.
Rosen told NBC News before addressing the Culinary Union that voters have a “clear choice” in the Senate race.
“I think Sam Brown is just too extreme, and I want to continue being that pragmatic problem solver, that bipartisan senator who gets results for Nevada,” Rosen said.
Republicans believe they have advantages on issues like the economy and cost of living.
“Voters continue to feel the pain at the gas pump and in the grocery stores, but Sam’s plan resonates with working families and the momentum is on our side,” Brown campaign spokeswoman Raegan Lehman said in a statement, pointing to Brown’s support for policies like eliminating taxes on tips, which Rosen also supports, and on Social Security benefits.
A ‘missed opportunity’ for the GOP?
On paper, Nevada looks like a ripe Republican target.
Two years ago, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto sealed the majority for her party with a re-election win — by fewer than 8,000 votes. President Joe Biden won the state by just 2 percentage points in 2020. Hillary Clinton carried Nevada by the same margin in 2016.
In addition to voter concerns about prices and the economy, Republicans also see an opportunity among Latino voters moving to the right. And with voters constantly moving in and out of Nevada, they saw Rosen as relatively unknown.
But Brown has lagged behind Trump in most public polling. A recent survey from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter found Brown particularly underperforming Trump among Latinos and independents. In 2020, Latinos made up 17 percent of the Nevada electorate. Voters not registered with either party have surged since 2020 and now make up the state’s largest share of active voters.
Some Republicans are concerned it may be too late for Brown to close that gap.
“It’s a massively missed opportunity,” said one Nevada Republican operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy.
”The issue set was there. An unknown candidate was there,” the operative said, referring to Rosen. “Trump’s obviously polling very strongly here, he may win it. And meanwhile you have a Senate candidate that’s polling way outside of that presidential race. And that’s just the byproduct of a bad campaign.”
The operative suggested that Brown’s campaign has not been active enough on the campaign trail, and he has been unable to combat the barrage of Democratic attacks by earning free media attention on his own.
Brown did not have any public campaign events this week ahead of Trump’s rally in Reno on Friday, which Brown is expected to attend. The campaign did not make Brown available for an interview, despite multiple requests.
“Sam is a grassroots leader whose schedule is packed from morning until night with meetings with supporters and voters across Nevada,” Lehman, the Brown campaign spokeswoman, countered in a statement. “Without a doubt, he’s the hardest working candidate in Nevada, and he’s taken the time to build relationships with communities of voters that Jacky Rosen has completely abandoned.”
Other Republicans noted the early barrage of Democratic ads have made it difficult for Brown to gain traction.
Since the June primary, Democrats have spent $57.7 million on ads in the state, compared to $37 million from Republicans, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Rosen’s campaign alone has spent $19 million on ads, while Brown’s campaign has spent $4.4 million. Meanwhile, Republicans’ biggest-spending outside groups don’t currently have a major advertising push planned, though the Senate GOP campaign arm is partnering with Brown to air some ads.
Zac Moyle, a former executive director of the Nevada Republican Party, said Republicans recognized early-on this would be a tough race, so they “picked a very safe candidate who’s a solid, world-class American.” Brown served in Afghanistan, and he suffered severe burns after his vehicle ran over an explosive device.
“But it proved to be exactly what it was: an uphill battle,” Moyle said.
While it’s not clear if Brown can catch up to Trump, operatives in both parties expect the Senate race to tighten in the final weeks, especially as Brown consolidates Republican voters who support the former president.
“He’s behind Trump, and that’s what we need,” said Anita Henson Sanchez, a Republican and retired teacher backing Brown, who attended a Trump campaign volunteer event in Las Vegas this week.
Democratic balancing act
As Brown has embraced Trump, Rosen has had to balance aligning with Harris while also stressing where she breaks with her party.
In her first TV ad, Rosen said she “won’t walk the party line.” Rosen skipped the Democratic convention this summer, but she also campaigned with Harris at her first Nevada rally as the party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Rosen said Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket has led to a boost in volunteers and in voter registration.
“People do feel hopeful and energized,” Rosen said.
Biden had been struggling in the polls in Nevada, particularly among young voters and Latino voters. While Harris has provided an energy boost, she recently dodged questions on how her approach would differ from Biden’s, aside from appointing a Republican to her Cabinet.
Asked if Harris should distinguish herself more from the president to win Nevada, Rosen said: “The race is about Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump. It’s about me versus Sam Brown.”
“She is her own person,” Rosen later added. “I think that she’s been clear about who she is and how she’s trying to translate the dreams of most Americans into reality.”
As the presidential race remains close in the state, Democrats are optimistic that Rosen is in a strong position to win a second term as she worked to define the race early.
Rosen launched her first TV ads in April, with spots in both English and Spanish aimed at Latino voters.
“I’m a Mexican woman, immigrant, and she understands all the issues that we have,” said Silvia Buanrostro, the Culinary Union’s campaign director, at Thursday’s event, pointing to Rosen’s support on abortion rights, infrastructure and lowering drug prices.
Rosen also launched a TV ad attacking Brown before he won the primary, labeling him as “another MAGA extremist trying to take away abortion rights.”
Democrats have centered their attacks on Brown on abortion, even though he has said he would not support a federal ban on abortion. His wife, Amy, also revealed in an interview with NBC News that she had an abortion before meeting Brown.
Brown used portions of that interview in TV ads, but those ads stopped airing in late August, according to AdImpact.
But Democrats have pointed to Brown’s past record on the issue, including his previous support for an abortion ban in Texas. Brown also recently suggested that he opposes a ballot initiative in the state that would enshrine the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution, according to audio obtained by the Nevada Independent.
Rosen stressed that the issue is important to Nevadans, even as voters often list the high cost of living as their top concern.
“Nevada is an overwhelmingly pro-choice state, and one-third — one-third — of American women don’t have access to reproductive health care,” Rosen said. “And so this is just not a women’s issue. This is one of many issues we’re going to talk about — lowering costs, housing, all of that … I believe this is a really important issue across our country, and I just don’t want to see any more women die, and I don’t want to see any doctors or nurses go to jail for trying to save a life.”
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