Former President Donald Trump is beating Kamala Harris in Texas and Florida, two states that Democrats believe could be in play in November, according to a poll.
A New York Times/Siena College survey showed that Trump has a 14-point lead in a head-to-head race with Harris in Florida (55 percent to 41), and a 13-point lead in a full ballot including independent and third-party candidates (53 percent to 40).
The poll also gives Trump a 6-point lead over the vice president in Texas in a direct match-up (50 percent to 44), and a 7-point lead in a full presidential ballot (49 percent to 42).
Texas and Florida are states that Democrats have said could be competitive in November in both the presidential and statewide elections. There are 40 Electoral College votes up for grabs in Texas and 30 in Florida.
Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, or elected a Democratic Senator since 1988. Polling aggregator and forecaster currently shows Trump ahead in Texas by an average of 6.3 points.
Florida was once a pivotal swing state, but it is considered to have become more Republican in recent years following Trump’s victories in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling aggregator and forecaster FiveThirtyEight currently has Trump ahead of Harris in Florida by 3.9 points, with no recent survey having his lead over Harris beyond 6 points.
New York Times reporter Nate Cohn noted that the Florida poll showing Trump with such a large lead “looks nothing like the other polls of the state.”
Cohn added the results may not be a “statistical fluke” but a sign of how the Sunshine State has leaned more Republican in recent years
“This poll is not the usual outlier. It’s certainly an outlier compared with other polls, but it probably isn’t a fluke simply attributable to random chance,” Cohn wrote.
“If we polled Florida again tomorrow, it’s certainly possible that Mr. Trump wouldn’t lead by 13 points…But it’s hard to imagine his lead would finish at a mere four points, like yesterday’s polling average.”
The New York Times/Siena College poll was carried out between September 29 to October 6 among 622 likely voters in Florida and 617 voters in Texas. The results have a margin of error of around plus or minus 4.8 percentage points for each state.
The national survey of 3,385 likely voters gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump overall (49 percent to 46). The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison said in September the party thinks it “has a shot” in Florida, and that people may be “surprised on election night about what happens in the state.”
Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who narrowly lost the 2018 Texas Senate election to Republican Ted Cruz, recently told MSNBC that Democratic presidential candidates have closed the gap in the Lone Star State.
He added: “Someday sooner than later, and maybe it’s 2024, we win Texas.”
The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill currently gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning Texas in November, and a 73 percent chance of winning Florida.
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