Our Best Reads on the Middle East Crisis

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep, where we’re taking a sip of coffee every time we write the phrase “escalating tensions.”

Since you last heard from us, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon; Israel launched a “limited” incursion into the country’s south; Iran fired a volley of some 200 missiles at Israel; and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken published an essay touting the Biden administration’s diplomatic achievements.

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep, where we’re taking a sip of coffee every time we write the phrase “escalating tensions.”

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: A roundup of our best reads on the Middle East, the strategic stronghold of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine falls to Russia, and Australia and New Zealand trade military commanders.

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What to Read on the Middle East Crisis

As we recover from our week at the U.N. General Assembly and work to keep atop the deluge of news from the Middle East, we are taking a break from our regularly scheduled programming for the next two weeks.

But Foreign Policy still has you covered. Here’s a roundup of our top reads from the news team and our expert contributors on various aspects of the crisis in the Middle East and where things could go next.

The U.N. Resolution at the Heart of the Israel-Lebanon Conflict

Our colleague Keith Johnson explains why U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which put an end to the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, failed to oust the group from Lebanon’s south and set the stage for the current conflict. “The sad saga and uncertain future of Resolution 1701 act as a mirror to nearly everything that has happened between Israel and Lebanon in the 18 years since it was passed,” he writes.

What Israel Learned From the 2006 Lebanon War

Israel’s 34-day war against Hezbollah in 2006 ended in an uneasy stalemate. It was deemed an embarrassment for the country’s government and prompted a long period of soul-searching in the Israeli military and intelligence establishment. Israel’s latest campaign against Hezbollah, which has rapidly degraded the group’s communications infrastructure, senior leadership, and military capabilities, reflects some of the hard-learned lessons from 2006, my colleague Christina Lu and I explain.

Don’t Blame Biden for the Yearlong War in Gaza

The United States has faced significant ire both at home and abroad for failing to curb the brutal nature of Israel’s military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, which has killed more than 40,000 people over the course of the past year. Aaron David Miller and Lauren Morganbesser of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argue that although the administration has leverage over Israel—and none over Hamas—there’s reason to believe the application of U.S. pressure would have had limited effect. This “region is more often than not a place where American ideas go to wither or die,” they write.

Also, as Israel and the world mark the first anniversary of the bloody Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that ignited the region, tune into FP Live on Monday for a conversation between our editor in chief Ravi Agrawal and Aaron David Miller on the world after Oct. 7.

Israeli Airstrikes Fuel Anger, Desperation in Southern Lebanon

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon in recent weeks have killed more than 1,000 people in some of the most punishing bombardments in modern warfare. Longtime FP contributor Stefanie Glinski reports from Ain Ed Delb in southern Lebanon. “The village has largely emptied of people—except for those still digging up the dead,” she writes.

Israel’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Moment in the Middle East

Israeli officials are riding high in the wake of the devastating blow dealt to Hezbollah in recent weeks—reminiscent of former U.S. President George W. Bush’s fateful declaration that the United States’ mission had been accomplished six weeks after it invaded Iraq in 2003, FP columnist Stephen M. Walt writes. Yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be making the same mistake Bush made, Walt warns.

Can Israel Kill Its Way to Victory Over Hezbollah?

Israel’s widening campaign against Hezbollah represents a shift in its approach to the militant group, seeking to back it into a corner in the hope of suing for peace. Will it work? “Hezbollah may be too weak to fight back and so bruised it makes concessions,” writes Daniel Byman, a terrorism expert and professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. “But the group in the past has shown its resilience, and it may prefer to hit back harder rather than back down.”

Let’s Get Personnel

Jennifer Gavito, President Joe Biden’s nominee to serve as U.S. ambassador to Libya, announced this week that she has asked the president to withdraw her nomination, two and a half years after she was first approached about the role. Gavito cited the broken confirmation process, which has left the United States without an ambassador to the troubled country for two years. “U.S. national security deserves better than this,” she wrote in a post on LinkedIn.

Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte formally took the reins as NATO secretary-general on Tuesday, taking over from Jens Stoltenberg, who held the role for a decade. For the lowdown on NATO’s new workaholic boss, check out Caroline de Gruyter’s revealing profile of Rutte for Foreign Policy.

Following Nasrallah’s death on Friday, the group’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, is currently serving as the acting head of the organization. Nasrallah’s cousin Hashem Safieddine is widely expected to be tapped to serve as the next leader.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Vuhledar falls. The eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar was seized by Russian forces on Wednesday after Ukrainian troops withdrew from the crucial chokepoint to avoid encirclement. The small town sits between the main front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, and its position atop high ground gives it strategic significance beyond its prewar size. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty explains what this might mean for Ukraine’s beleaguered military.

Two weeks? The first question in Tuesday night’s debate between the U.S. vice presidential candidates noted that Iran has “drastically reduced the time it would take to develop a nuclear weapon,” noting that it is now down to “one or two weeks.” While Iran has unquestionably accelerated its nuclear program, the question conflated the amount of time it would take Tehran to develop a bomb’s worth of enriched uranium with the complicated process of inserting that into an actual weapon, a process that could take months if not a year, the New York Times explains.

Drones aplenty. Ukraine is now capable of producing as many as 4 million drones annually, President Volodymyr Zelensky told a gathering of executives from foreign arms manufacturers in Kyiv on Tuesday. The country already has contracts to produce 1.5 million drones this year, Zelensky said, as it aims to ramp up domestic manufacturing amid the ongoing war with Russia.

Commander swap. Australia and New Zealand have exchanged deputy commanders of their respective joint forces headquarters, responsible for the control, planning, and conduct of their respective militaries. The trade is testament to how the two Pacific nations see their security as closely interlinked, Defense News reports.

This Week’s Most Read

Snapshot

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