Trump shows strength in upper Midwest — which Kamala Harris needs to win

New polling from Michigan and Wisconsin presents good news for Donald Trump in two states Kamala Harris likely must win to have a shot at the White House.

Trafalgar Group surveys of Michigan and Wisconsin show the Republican presidential nominee with a narrow lead over the Democratic vice president.

In the Wolverine State, where 1,086 likely voters were polled between Sept. 28 and 30, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% with rounding, with 5% undecided and 4% backing another candidate.

Trump’s lead in this battle for 15 electoral votes is particularly remarkable given this is a D+4 survey.

Given the strong Democratic performance in the state typically, one theory for Harris’ lag in Michigan is that the Biden administration’s policy on the Israeli war in Gaza is a nonstarter for Muslims. Polling has shown Green Party candidate Jill Stein as a spoiler among that demographic, and those who have yet to commit to either major candidate could be leaning Green.

Democratic doldrums extend downballot as well, according to Trafalgar. Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are in a dead heat in the Senate race, tied at 47% each.

Trafalgar’s Wisconsin poll of 1,086 likely voters was also conducted between Sept. 28 and 30, and it’s more of a mixed bag for Republicans, showing some Trumpers aren’t sold on Senate hopeful Eric Hovde.

While the former president leads Harris narrowly in the race for 10 electoral votes, 47% to 46% with 4% undecided and 3% exploring another option (again, according to rounded numbers), Sen. Tammy Baldwin is on track for another six years in DC, per the pollster. 

The Democratic incumbent leads the GOP businessman 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided in the survey evenly distributed between Republicans and Democrats.

A second Wisconsin poll released Wednesday is more favorable to Democrats.

The Marquette University Law School survey shows Harris up 49% to 44% in a multi-candidate race among likely voters, with Robert F. Kennedy taking 3% support.

The poll’s trend has been increasingly favorable to Harris, who trailed Trump by 1 point when she entered the race, then stretched her lead to 4 points in a later survey. 

Harris has 99% support among what poll director Charles Franklin told Wisconsin reporters is a “remarkably unified party,” which makes the pollsters wonder if they’re “overestimating” Democratic loyalty. Independents are also moving to Harris according to Marquette, with more than 60% on board. 

Trump is backed by 94% of Republicans, but in Marquette’s estimation that isn’t enough. 

The GOP gloom trickles down into predictions: 50% of Wisconsin voters think Harris is more likely to win than Trump, while just 39% see Trump returning to the White House.

Hovde is in a 7-point hole, trailing Baldwin 53% to 46%, which reflects a shift in Marquette’s reckoning when the 10% of undecided voters are forced to choose. Without that compulsory choice, Hovde only trails by 5 points. 

With third-party candidates in the mix, Baldwin leads by 6 points, good for what the pollster calls a “consistently modest lead.”

Baldwin is “consolidating” the Democratic vote, Franklin says, and has more than 60% support among independents. 

Marquette polled 798 likely voters in the Badger State between Sept. 18 and 26 with a margin of error of +/-4.4%.

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