New polling from swing states with 43 electoral votes up for grabs reveals momentum is building for Donald Trump.
The Quinnipiac and Emerson surveys released Tuesday reveal the former president leads the vice president in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while they’re tied in Pennsylvania.
If these numbers hold up, Trump will have 262 electoral votes. And Harris’ path would be narrow, dependent on winning Michigan and Wisconsin and pulling Pennsylvania out in the end.
In North Carolina’s Q poll, Trump is up 49% to 47% over Kamala Harris, an advantage driven by men and white voters without college degrees. With those groups, the GOP nominee has 59% and 66% support respectively.
Harris leads 56% to 40% with women overall, but Trump has tied her with white women, suggesting the novelty of a historic female presidential candidate of color isn’t resonating with this group.
Harris’ strongest demographic by far is black voters, with whom she leads 90% to 2%, data that contradict other surveys showing Trump surging with black men.
Emerson finds Trump leading Harris 50% to 49% in the state among 850 likely voters surveyed Sept. 27 and 28. Remarkably, 9% of those who say they’ll vote for Harris disapprove of the Biden administration’s job performance.
These polls line up with others from the Tar Heel State.
A Washington Post survey released Tuesday shows Trump up by 2 points, while an East Carolina University poll released Monday also shows a 2-point Trump lead. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump up by less than a percentage point.
Both new polls suggest gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, whose infamous reference to himself as a “black Nazi” made headlines last month, is beyond help from Trump or anything short of a divine power.
In the Quinnipiac poll, Robinson is running 13 points behind Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein, with just 81% support among Republicans. The Emerson poll shows a 19-point Stein lead, with Robinson not even managing 70% support among those voters who disapprove of outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
Other polls this week tell a similar story: WaPo shows the Republican 16 points behind, while ECU’s data indicate a 17-point deficit for Robinson.
Split tickets abound.
“Twelve percent of Trump voters also support Stein in North Carolina, compared to 2% of Harris voters switching over to Robinson,” says Emerson polling chief Spencer Kimball.
Turning to Georgia, Quinnipiac depicts Trump headed to a victory that avenges a narrow and bitter defeat in 2020 to Joe Biden.
The former president leads 50% to 44%, with 71% of white voters and 78% of whites without college degrees backing him.
And 92% of Trump voters and 91% of Harris voters say they won’t change their minds.
The Q poll in Georgia is more favorable to the GOP cause than the RCP average survey, which shows Trump up by a little more than a percentage point.
A similar story emerges from the desert Southwest.
Among 920 likely Arizona voters polled, Trump leads Harris 50% to 47% according to Emerson, giving him a slightly healthier lead than his 2.1% RCP polling average lead in the state.
But as is the case in North Carolina, the former president doesn’t seem to have coattails to help down the ballot.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 52% to 41% in the Senate race, with the former newscaster apparently headed to a substantial loss.
And Trump-Gallego voters are very much a thing. with 10% of the former president’s backers voting Democrat in the Senate race. In contrast, Lake-Harris voters make up 1% of the electorate.
These three states appear to be going Trump’s way, and at least one of the blue-wall states is up for grabs as well, per Emerson and RealClearPennsylvania.
In the Keystone State, Trump and Harris are tied at 48%, with 10% of her support coming from people who regard Biden unfavorably.
The big question in Pennsylvania for Harris may end up being whether she is haunted by not selecting Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate, and the numbers deliver a mixed narrative.
Shapiro supporters seem to be siding with her already, with just 4% of her voters disapproving of the governor’s job performance.
But the survey nonetheless raises questions of what might have been, given Shapiro’s 47% approval rating against a 35% disapproval number.
Pennsylvania’s Senate race likewise is a jump ball at this point, with an Emerson survey of 1,000 likely voters showing Republican Dave McCormick surging against incumbent Democrat Bob Casey.
Casey leads 47% to 45%, but the details reveal deep demographic divides, according to pollster Spencer Kimball.
“Casey leads among voters under 50, 53% to 37%, while McCormick leads the 50 and over vote: 51% to 43%. Women break for Casey by 11 points, 52% to 41%, while men break for McCormick by eight points, 50% to 42%.”
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