As the northern Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir heads to the polls for its first regional-level elections in nearly a decade, voters and candidates alike are still feeling the political hangover from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 decision to revoke the region’s special autonomous status.
In August 2019, the Indian government scrapped Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, reducing the former state of Jammu and Kashmir to two union territories—Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh—and bringing them under the direct control of New Delhi. The decision, a watershed in the region’s troubled history, sparked outrage. It also marked a shift in how India intended to govern Kashmir, which remains disputed territory with Pakistan.
Even as Jammu and Kashmir gears up to announce the winner of its legislative elections on Oct. 8, the local government will wield limited powers, constrained by a series of laws passed since 2019 that have reinforced the central government’s control over the region. Though the newly formed Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly will have power to make some laws, the region will be headed still by a New Delhi-appointed governor, who wields substantial authority over public order, police, bureaucracy, anti-corruption measures, and financial matters.
The region, particularly the Kashmir Valley, has witnessed decades of violence since the 1988 insurgency that drew India and Pakistan into three wars. Since it came to power in 2014, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has asserted that its policies have brought development and democracy to Kashmir. However, people in the region have generally expressed anger over Modi’s revocation of Article 370, which consolidated power in the hands of nonlocals.
Meanwhile, other regional parties in Kashmir—including separatist groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir (JeI), Tehreek-e-Hurriyat, and the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front—have been banned or marginalized and many of their leaders imprisoned. The remaining dissidents in Kashmir have either changed their stance or stayed quiet out of fear of repression. Kashmiris are thus using this election season as an outlet for expressing frustration and anger by supporting local political parties or non-BJP candidates.
To New Delhi, the elections represent a chance to signal that Kashmir has moved on from its long-standing demands for azadi, or freedom, and has instead flourished in the post-2019 environment. However, many separatist groups or individuals who previously boycotted elections, including some backed by the banned JeI, are now participating. Meanwhile, mainstream Kashmiri politicians are positioning themselves as the last line of defense against what they perceive as the BJP’s attempts to reshape the region’s political dynamics, urging voters to reject Modi’s narrative and promising to restore Kashmir’s autonomy.
Kashmir kick-started its phased elections on Sept. 18, with the second round of voting taking place on Sept. 25. The third and final round of voting will take place on Oct. 1, before results are announced a week later.
There are a total of 90 seats up for grabs, but with more than 300 independent candidates out of 873 in the race, it has become one of the most unpredictable elections in Kashmir’s history. The BJP has set a goal of winning at least 30-35 of 43 seats in Jammu, while it is contesting 19 of the 47 seats in the Kashmir Valley, a Muslim-majority region where it has traditionally struggled to gain traction.
Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, has emerged as another key figure. Rashid represents the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) and is a two-time lawmaker from northern Kashmir who contested and won a seat in India’s parliament in June, defeating prominent figures such as former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah of the National Conference party and Sajad Lone, the leader of the People’s Conference party.
Rashid’s victory by a margin of more than 200,000 votes marked a shift in the region’s politics—signaling anger toward the politicians who had failed to safeguard Kashmir’s autonomy or bring about meaningful changes in their decades of rule. In the last year, Rashid’s AIP has gained traction and positioned itself as a formidable player in the regional elections. While campaigning on behalf of AIP candidates, Rashid has vehemently targeted Abdullah’s and Lone’s parties, accusing them of ganging up against him.
Rashid, who was arrested in 2019 on terrorism funding charges under India’s draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, was recently released on interim bail. At a campaign rally in Baramulla, a town in northern Kashmir, on Sept. 13, he spoke to an energized crowd.
“[Modi’s] naya [new] Kashmir was [meant] to kill, arrest, harass, and humiliate people,” he told the gathering. “Kashmiris don’t like to throw stones, but that doesn’t mean we will surrender before your power,” he added, while his supporters cheered him on.
Rashid has promised the reinstatement of Kashmir’s autonomy, the release of all political prisoners, and the repeal of controversial laws such as the Jammu and Kashmir Public Safety Act. The campaign offers a platform that appeals to people, especially the youth, who feel that their voices have been stifled since 2019. But many of Rashid’s opponents—including Abdullah and Lone, as well as Mehbooba Mufti, another former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir—have accused him of being an agent of the BJP.
The BJP has also been accused of supporting other political parties and independent candidates, further complicating the region’s political landscape. Another such example is JeI—which remains banned under the country’s anti-terrorism law. Though most of its leaders remain imprisoned and its assets seized, it is trying to make a comeback in this year’s elections and has demanded the suspension of its ban.
Abdullah, who was Jammu and Kashmir’s chief minister from 2009 to 2015, has voiced concerns over the proliferation of independent candidates and accused the BJP of using them to dilute the opposition’s vote. “Independent candidates are being deliberately fielded to create confusion and divide votes in critical constituencies,” he said at a recent rally. “The BJP is leaving its options open. … Voters need to be cautious. Fragmented votes will only serve to help those who do not have Jammu and Kashmir’s best interests at heart.”
To bolster its chances and stave off a BJP victory in Kashmir, the National Conference has formed an alliance with Rahul Gandhi, India’s opposition leader from the Indian National Congress party. Yet the Gandhi-Abdullah alliance’s promises to restore the region’s autonomy are viewed skeptically, even by their own supporters. New Delhi has made it abundantly clear that Article 370 will never be reinstated.
Mufti, the leader of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and who was chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir from 2016 to 2018, has also thrown her hat in the ring. After the 2014 elections, the PDP formed an alliance with the BJP—which has cost it support—but since 2019, the PDP has been the strongest opponent of the BJP and its policies in Kashmir. On Sept. 25, Mufti told a gathering: “Jammu and Kashmir will never have a BJP government. There will be a secular government. … PDP will be an important factor.”
Mufti’s party has also pledged to bring back statehood, revoke detention laws, and release prisoners, among other promises. Meanwhile, the BJP has continued to target both Abdullah and Mufti as “dynasts” who have kept Kashmir mired in conflict.
Though the debate over Kashmir’s autonomy has taken center stage among candidates, voters across polling stations in Kashmir are also concerned about their daily cost of living and issues such as high unemployment, increased electricity costs, limited infrastructure, and continuous detentions and police verifications.
The current political climate in Kashmir harks back to the 1970s, when Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, then the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, pledged to safeguard the region’s autonomy while New Delhi’s Janata Party—a precursor to today’s BJP—led by Morarji Desai, tried to block his return to power.
Similar to the 1977 regional elections, today’s promises of autonomy now ring hollow to many residents, as successive governments have failed to preserve Kashmir’s special status. Kashmiris feel that elections have historically served as a tool to dilute their aspirations rather than fulfilling them. Manzoor Ahmad, a 49-year-old from Srinagar, voted for the first time this year. “I voted for a greater good,” he said. “We are facing lots of problems as we have been crushed. We want a local party to win to stop this.”
No matter who wins the elections, however, the new government is likely to be weak with limited powers, overshadowed by the New Delhi-appointed governor. The elections have thus become a ballot on the region’s lack of autonomy—and by extension, a test of how voters view Modi’s government.
“These election rallies have the same nomenclature as that of protest rallies in the past,” said Waheed Parra, a PDP candidate from southern Kashmir. “I see people, mostly youth, in campaigns, and it is visible they are angry. They want space to be expressed and be heard. Nobody has listened to them in the past five years.” Parra warned that if the mandate of these elections is not respected by New Delhi, the situation on the ground could turn dangerous.
The undercurrents may already exist. It appears not everyone in Kashmir is excited about the elections. Compared with the 2014 regional elections, some parts of the valley have either witnessed low voter turnout or only a slight increment. In Srinagar, for example, which is the summer capital, turnout in the second phase of voting was low, at just under 30 percent.
New Delhi has invited a delegation of 15 diplomats from foreign countries, including the United States, to observe the local elections, though many of the BJP’s opponents, including Abdullah, have questioned the visit.
Kashmir’s political future may still be fragile, but its path is being steadily reshaped by forces both old and new. As the elections progress, one thing is evident: New Delhi’s attempts to suppress dissent and tighten its grip on Kashmir over the last five years have inadvertently reignited the region’s political landscape, bringing back to the stage individuals and groups who once led mass protests and called for election boycotts. Simultaneously, the fear of continued repression has prompted many to vote, in a bid to see some change—even as the region’s underlying tensions remain unresolved.
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