If you have always wanted to buy a Nautilus Ref. 5711, now might be a good time.
In 2021, when Patek Philippe discontinued its best-selling Ref. 5711/1A-010 — the model with eight-year wait lists, for those who could get on the wait list at all — prices for the $33,000 stainless-steel wristwatch with a black-blue dial soared into six-figure territory on the secondary market.
Data from 40 auction houses, compiled by the digital platform EveryWatch, shows that models across Patek’s sporty Nautilus line continue to exceed retail levels. But with the overall pre-owned watch market recording the fewest sales in three years, peak prices seem to be a thing of the past.
“Prices are declining across nearly every model in the 5711 line,” Giovanni Prigigallo, a co-founder and head of business development at EveryWatch, said in a recent phone interview from Geneva, where he was attending Geneva Watch Days. “The median peak price for the 5711/1A was $131,504 in 2022, but today the watch is priced at $89,404.”
This might be exciting news for the legions of fans who have long awaited opportunities to acquire the 5711, first introduced in 2006. Over its production run, 18 variations of the 5711 were issued, offered in stainless steel, precious metals such as gold or platinum, and gem-set versions.
By the mid-2010s, the steel model — Ref. 5711/1A — had become the most popular. Today, Patek’s catalog lists 28 Nautilus references, but all 5711s have been discontinued.
Ending the Run
Resale prices on the secondary market had been rising even before January 2021, when Thierry Stern, the president of Patek Philippe, announced that 5711 production had ended, sending the buying frenzy to a fever pitch.
“A watch should not be a top leader on its own,” Mr. Stern said at the time. “That is too dangerous.”
(The 5711 had been in the brand’s catalog for just 15 years, from 2006 to 2021. That is a short life span for a Patek reference, especially compared with models such as the Calatrava, which has been a catalog fixture since 1932.)
By the end of 2021, Phillips had auctioned a 5711 in New York for a record $280,980; the estimated price had been $40,000 to $80,000.
But Alexandre Ghotbi, the head of watches for Europe and the Middle East at Phillips, said that the pre-owned watch market was booming at that time: “Prices remained high for some time, with peak demand for sport watches in particular with integrated bracelets. Now, we have a Ref. 5711 in nearly every one of our sales, and prices have stabilized in the $85,000 to $90,000 range.”
“It is also important to remember that these steel watches are not truly rare,” he noted. “They were produced in the thousands over a 15-year period.”
The resale prices of other 5711 iterations also have declined, even rare models such as those stamped with the name of Tiffany & Company on the dial, indicating that they were originally sold by the New York jeweler, a Patek partner since 1851.
Similarly, prices for the Ref. 5711/1A-011 — a steel model with a striated white dial — have dropped to a median price of $93,558 after peaking at $239,400 at a Phillips auction in June 2022 in New York.
“The white dials are rarer than the blue, since fewer were made and they were discontinued earlier,” Mr. Ghotbi said. “Today, blue and white dials are selling for about the same price.”
Even precious metal models have not been immune to the downward trend. The rose gold Nautilus with a chocolate brown dial, known as Ref. 5711/1R-001, retailed for $51,000 when it was released in 2015. Its record price has been 289,800 Swiss francs ($340,773) for a factory-sealed model sold at a Christie’s auction in May 2023 in Geneva.
The model now has been selling for a median price of $129,788, according to EveryWatch.
The Victory Lap
When he discontinued Patek’s best seller, Mr. Stern promised what he called a Nautilus “victory lap,” which turned out to be 5711 references with new dial colors. Their resale prices immediately shot up but now also have plateaued.
In April 2021, Patek introduced a steel model with a green dial, Ref. 5711/1A-014, at $34,893. One sold for 529,200 Swiss francs at Sotheby’s Geneva in May 2022. Now, EveryWatch said, its median value is $267,016.
And in late 2021, to wrap up the production of the 5711 series with a bang, Patek introduced a model with a Tiffany-blue lacquer dial, the Ref. 5711/1A-018 — a limited edition of just 170 timepieces to commemorate the 170th anniversary of the brand’s partnership with Tiffany.
The model retailed for $52,635. One consigned to Phillips to be sold for charity was hammered at $6,503,500 during a December 2021 auction in New York, but when the winning bidder reneged on the sale, it was offered to an underbidder, who paid “over $6 million,” according to Mr. Ghotbi.
Today, the median price of that model has dropped to $1.2 million, according to EveryWatch.
An Exception
There is one 5711 model that has managed to beat the downward trend: the platinum version known as Ref. 5711/1P-101.
Retailing at $113,400, the model reached a median peak resale price of $545,653 in 2021, according to EveryWatch. And in November 2023, a factory-sealed model was sold for 571,500 Swiss francs during a Phillips auction in Geneva.
“There have been only 31 sales of the platinum 5711 since 2015, including in the plain and gem-set versions,” said Mr. Prigigallo of EveryWatch. “It is a small number which would suggest that they rarely come to auction and when they do, they keep their value.”
Market dynamics and collector tastes are constantly evolving, making it challenging to predict a floor price for the Nautilus watches at auction.
“The frenzy for steel sports watches has cooled across many brands,” Mr. Ghotbi said. (Statistics from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry has shown consistent decreases in stainless steel watch exports this year; in August, the most recent numbers available, there was a 7 percent decline over the same period in 2023.)
“What we’re seeing now is an appetite for quality, rare, vintage watches,” Mr. Ghotbi said, “and for exceptional pieces from modern independents like Roger Smith, F.P. Journe and Rexhep Rexhepi. That’s where the watch market is at right now.”
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