As former President Donald J. Trump makes his closing economic argument ahead of the election, he is outlining a vision for a manufacturing renaissance that reprises a familiar pitch: Make goods in America and enjoy low taxes, or face punishing tariffs.
Mr. Trump’s pitch combines the type of carrots-and-sharp-sticks approach that he called “America First” during his first term, when he imposed stiff tariffs on allies and competitors while lowering taxes on American firms.
During a speech in Savannah, Ga., on Tuesday, Mr. Trump suggested he would go far beyond that initial approach and adopt what he rebranded a “new American industrialism.”
The former president proposed creating “special” economic zones on federal land, areas that he said would enjoy low taxes and relaxed regulations. He called for companies that produce their products in the United States — regardless of where their headquarters are — to pay a corporate tax rate of 15 percent, down from the current rate of 21 percent. Businesses that try to route cars and other products into the United States from countries like Mexico would face tariffs as high as 200 percent.
But Mr. Trump’s vision of a “manufacturing renaissance” comes when Americans are increasingly wary of foreign investment, particularly from Asia. And while he imposed steep tariffs during his presidency, his efforts to keep American companies from shifting production overseas ran into the harsh realities of lower-wage labor and technological advancements in other countries.
While Mr. Trump was in office, manufacturing employment was essentially flat before the pandemic and had declined by the time he left office. In January 2021, the Alliance for American Manufacturing described his promises of an industrial resurgence as “mostly rhetoric.”
Mr. Trump’s talk of strengthening American manufacturing is similar, in part, to what President Biden has pushed for over the past several years. The Biden administration has embraced a form of industrial policy not seen in several decades, backing bills that devoted huge sums of money to certain industries, including semiconductors, clean energy and electric vehicles.
But Mr. Trump’s approach diverges sharply in many ways from that of Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee.
Ms. Harris has called for higher taxes on corporations and has said little about how or whether she would use tariffs to influence manufacturing decisions. But she has talked about the importance of the Inflation Reduction Act, the tax and climate legislation that Democrats passed in 2022, which has attracted foreign investments given the lucrative tax credits available to help develop clean energy industries.
Mr. Trump wants to repeal that law and create a new set of tax breaks for certain industries. During his speech, he said companies that made products in the United States would pay a 15 percent tax rate.
“Foreign nations will be worried about losing their jobs to America,” Mr. Trump said as he predicted an exodus of manufacturing from China, South Korea and Germany to the United States.
The tax legislation that Mr. Trump enacted in 2017 helped bolster foreign investment by making America’s corporate tax rate more competitive with other countries. However, the tariffs that he imposed on imports from China have led to greater investment in Mexico, as companies have invested there to circumvent the levies and gain access to the U.S. market.
Mr. Trump seemed to acknowledge that development this week, saying he would enact tariffs of at least 100 percent on companies that manufactured cars and other products in Mexico and then exported them into the United States.
At a campaign event in Pennsylvania on Monday, the former president called out Deere, the agriculture equipment maker. The firm announced this year that it would shift some of its production to Mexico from Iowa, threatening the jobs of more than 200 workers.
“I’m just notifying John Deere right now, if you do that, we’re putting a 200 percent tariff on everything you want to sell into the United States,” Mr. Trump said.
The approach is reminiscent of his first term, when he would often shame companies for their plans to move production abroad, threatening tariffs and boycotts. In most cases, the strategy had limited success.
In 2016, before he took office, Mr. Trump pressured United Technologies, which was the parent company of the heating and cooling giant Carrier, to keep an Indianapolis factory open and not move the jobs to Mexico. The company initially agreed to keep the plant open, saving more than 700 jobs. However, in 2017 and 2018 Carrier cut about 500 jobs from that factory, moving those roles to Mexico.
Mr. Trump lashed out at Harley-Davidson in 2018 when it announced that it would move some of its manufacturing overseas to avoid tariffs that Europe imposed on American products in retaliation for the president’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The motorcycle company moved ahead with plans to build a plant in Thailand and close a factory in Kansas City, Mo.
And in 2019, Mr. Trump assailed General Motors after it announced plans to close a plant in Lordstown, Ohio, urging the company to “get that plant opened or sell it to somebody and they’ll open it.” The company did not budge.
“I think there’s a role for the bully pulpit,” said Todd Tucker, the director of industrial policy and trade at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “But there’s a lack of focus and a lack of consistency in his policymaking.”
The results of Mr. Trump’s efforts to attract foreign companies to set up shop in the United States have also been mixed.
In 2018, at the groundbreaking in Wisconsin for Foxconn’s factory to make flat-screen televisions, Mr. Trump called the project by the Taiwanese company the “eighth wonder of the world.” Plans for the $10 billion factory later sputtered amid changing market dynamics. Much of the planned site remains undeveloped, and most of the promised jobs have yet to materialize.
Mr. Trump pledged again this week to make America a magnet for foreign investment, but he has presented mixed messages about what kinds of investments are acceptable. Republicans and Democrats have been particularly wary in recent years of investments linked to China that could threaten American national security or pose risks to sensitive supply chains.
Speaking to farmers in Pennsylvania on Monday, the former president called for new curbs on Chinese purchases of American farmland. In both speeches this week, he said the proposed takeover of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel of Japan should be blocked by the federal government.
“It certainly seems inconsistent with his plans to attract international companies,” said Nancy McLernon, the president of the Global Business Alliance, a lobbying group that represents international companies. “Our political leaders should unambiguously support and promote cross-border investment from our major trading partners and strategic allies.”
Some of Mr. Trump’s ideas — such as tax cuts — would require legislation from Congress. Others could be enacted through executive authority. Mr. Trump also suggested that a new manufacturing “ambassador” would help lead the recruiting effort.
“We’re going to bring thousands and thousands of businesses and trillions of dollars of wealth back to the good old U.S.A.,” he said. “We’re going to be doing it and doing it fast.”
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