The next storm that could threaten the United States was taking shape early Tuesday about 150 miles west of Grand Cayman in the Caribbean, with forecasters saying there is a chance that it becomes Helene, the next hurricane in the Atlantic this year.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are currently calling the area Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and said this weather would form into a tropical storm — meaning it has winds of 39 miles per hour — as it drifts north into the Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday morning, its maximum sustained winds were hovering at 35 m.p.h.
Many of the forecast models that meteorologists use show the storm strengthening rapidly over the next few days before hitting somewhere along the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico coastline in the United States on Thursday.
This storm follows Francine, which spun across the western Gulf of Mexico this month. That storm slowly intensified into a weak Category 2 in the final few hours before making landfall in Louisiana, dropping a deluge of rainfall across New Orleans.
Forecasters warned Monday afternoon that the system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane — meaning a Category 3 or higher, with wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour — before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, but that it was too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of the potential storm’s impacts.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida issued a state of emergency on Monday, noting that parts of the state were still dealing with the effects of Hurricane Debby, which brought significant rain last month.
We’re in the early stages of the storm.
Heavy rain will spread across portions of Central America over the next couple of days as this storm begins to take shape. As the storm passes between Cuba and Mexico it could bring four to eight inches of rain over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals around 12 inches, and up to six inches over the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico.
Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Yucatán and Western Cuba, which means forecasters expect at the very least tropical stormlike conditions over the next couple of days. A hurricane watch, meaning there is a chance winds could increase to 74 miles per hour or higher, was in effect from Cabo Catoche to Tulum in Mexico and for Pinar del Rio of Cuba.
A tropical storm watch was issued Monday for parts of Florida: the Dry Tortugas, the Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge, and Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo. This indicates forecasters believe tropical storm winds could begin to worsen over that region within the next two days.
The likely scenarios may change.
On Monday afternoon, the forecasts were becoming clearer among meteorologists, and the most likely scenario showed a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico making landfall along the Florida Panhandle sometime Thursday. Various models moderately agree that this could occur. Crucial data in the coming days will give forecasters a better understanding of the storm’s likely next steps.
“While the spread in potential tracks has lessened compared to this point 24 hours ago, a range of landfall locations from the Florida Panhandle to the Peninsula of Florida are still on the table,” forecasters in Tallahassee, Fla., said Monday morning.
Computer models and the potential paths of a storm are based on where they assume the storm’s center will form. The models will continue to shift until this cluster of thunderstorms starts spinning around a common point.
A hurricane hunter plane flew through the storm Monday afternoon to understand better where that center might be forming. National Weather Service Offices around the Gulf of Mexico are sending extra weather balloon launches to feed data into the forecast models. This data will be pivotal in understanding what is likely to happen. By Tuesday, the models should be more reliable to a degree and the understanding of the storm’s path and possible intensity will probably be more obvious.
There could still be surprises.
Despite models showing similar outcomes, the lack of current data means that forecasters and people along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the forecast in case the storm’s path and intensity change.
At least one model suggests the storm could make landfall along the west coast of the Florida peninsula. And early Monday morning model runs were all trending a little bit farther east. Another outlier suggests the storm may take a more western path into Alabama.
There is also a small chance that this storm never becomes a hurricane. If the storm encounters dry air like Francine did and is slow to form, it could mean a lower intensity. If the storm forms before reaching the Gulf, the ocean conditions would have enough energy to support rapid strengthening.
The post Brewing Caribbean Storm Churns Toward Gulf Coast appeared first on New York Times.
