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The Chiefs have a much easier matchup against a Bengals defense that is not nearly as good as the Ravens’ D, and the Bengals run defense specifically struggled in Week 1.
The Bengals allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to rush for 120 yards and a touchdown last week, and that was against a Patriots team with a significantly worse offensive line than the Chiefs.
Of course, the Chiefs are a much more pass-heavy team than the Patriots, but Andy Reid has shown that he is willing to pound the ball on the ground if he feels as though he has a matchup advantage. A good example of that was this exact matchup last year, when Pacheco rushed for 130 yards and scored a touchdown.
So, the guess here is that the Chiefs are going to have an advantage running the ball, and when they get into the red zone and close to the goal line, all the work is going to go to Pacheco.
As mentioned earlier, he took both red zone carries for the Chiefs last week. Last season, Chiefs RBs had 52 total carries in the red zone, 42 of which were given to Pacheco.
After last week, Pacheco has now scored a touchdown in eight of the last nine games for the Chiefs, and he should be able to get into the end zone once again on Sunday.
Pacheco Anytime TD (-105): 1-unit play
Joe Burrow o35.5 Pass. Attempts (-122) FanDuel
Joe Burrow throwing a bunch of passes is generally something that we can rely on, especially when he faces the Chiefs. He has done this in three out of four career games against Kansas City, with an average of over 37 pass attempts in those games.
Overall, in his last 20 full games (taking out injuries) dating back to the 2022 season, he has thrown the ball at least 35 times in 12 of 20 games, including in six of his last 10. Twice in this stretch, he landed on exactly 35 pass attempts.
The Bengals have generally been a pass-heavy team under Burrow, which makes sense given that they have an All-Pro QB. It has only been one game this year, so it’s a small sample size, but the Bengals had a 72% pass rate in Week 1 in their loss to the Patriots, and they also had the highest passing rate over expectation (8.9%) in the league last weekend.
That made sense, as Cincinnati trailed New England for the majority of that game. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the schedule does not look any easier this week, as they are currently 6.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs.
Even if the Bengals are able to pull off the upset, the guess here is that it will be done thanks to the arm of Burrow, as opposed to their ground game. The Chiefs bottled up Baltimore’s Derrick Henry in the running game last week, and according to EPA (expected points added), they had the third-best rush defense in the NFL in Week 1.
So, this should be a situation where the Bengals will be passing early and often, hopefully allowing Burrow to go over his passing attempts prop.
Burrow o35.5 pass. attempts (-122): 1-unit play
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The post Bengals-Chiefs Player Prop Picks: Isiah Pacheco to Get Into End Zone appeared first on Newsweek.
